720
FXUS61 KBUF 131840
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
140 PM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A mix of lake effect rain and snow showers will taper down tonight
and early Friday, leaving a then dry day for Friday. Temperatures
will rise to around 10 degrees above normal Saturday, ahead of the
next storm system that will bring a period of rain Saturday
afternoon and overnight. Behind a cold front Sunday rain showers
will change over to snow, with a little lake effect snow southeast
of the Lakes Sunday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Regional radars and observations display diminishing lake effect
rain and snow showers on a northwest flow. This activity, continuing
to slowly weaken through the night as lake equilibrium levels fall,
and ambient moisture diminishes, will leave only minor accumulations
on the hill tops southeast of Lake Erie, and also upon the Tug Hill.

With temperatures falling below freezing, untreated roads and
elevated surfaces such as bridges and overpasses may become slick.

Surface high pressure from the southeast will ridge across our
region tomorrow. Lake clouds will diminish with breaks of sunshine
through the day. It will still remain chilly with highs only in the
low to mid 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure to the south and brief ridging across the region will
bring an end to showers off the lakes for Friday night into most of
the morning on Saturday. Starting Saturday, during the late morning
and afternoon an active period will start and continue through the
period and into the middle of next week. Synoptic, lake enhanced and
lake effect rain and snow showers will be possible during this
stretch of active weather.

A sfc low tracking across the northern fringe of the Great Lakes
will push a warm front across the area late Saturday morning and
into the afternoon. As this occurs brief warming to the mid 50s for
areas south of Lake Ontario and to the mid/upper 40s east of the
lake will occur. Showers will also develop as the warm front crosses
the area and with close proximity to the sfc low and the triple
point of the system showers will persist through the remainder of
the day/evening on Saturday. There is the potential for some cooler
temperatures during the initial onset of precipitation to start out
as a mix of wet snow and rain for the North Country.

As the cold front associated with the system tracks across the area
on Saturday night, snow will start to mix in with the rain, first
over the higher terrain. Precipitation will continue to mix with and
change over to snow with lowering elevations into Sunday as CAA
continues to lower temperatures at the sfc and aloft. More
widespread synoptic precipitation will start to transition to lake
enhanced and then lake effect snow through the day on Sunday.

With 850 temperatures cooling to near -10C in some areas Sunday
night, and a trough over the region, lake effect snow will become
better organized southeast of both lakes. At least a couple of
inches of snowfall will be possible Sunday night into Monday morning
where lake effect snow becomes better organized on a NW flow and
upstream connections developing with the central/upper Great Lakes.

Behind the passing cold front, temperatures will cool for Sunday,
with highs reaching the mid 30s to mid 40s from the higher terrain
to the lower elevations respectively.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The lake response southeast of both lakes will continue into the
middle of the week with a few troughs crossing the region. The lake
response will week with time into the middle of the week as the main
core of the larger trough slowly pushes east and as temperatures
aloft warm slowly. Daytime heating resulting in marginally favorable
temperatures will also cause precipitation to mix with or change to
rain at times, especially over the lower elevations. Monday will
stand the best chance for accumulating lake snow during the period
with cooler temperatures lingering and a trough crossing the area.
Monday afternoon temperatures will remain in the low to upper 30s
for most areas. Otherwise, daytime temperatures will help to limit
accumulations some starting on Tuesday with afternoon highs
generally in the mid 30s to mid 40s for the remainder of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
For the 18Z TAFS lake effect activity with mainly MVFR ceiling
heights continues southeast of the Lakes. Expect these ceilings to
continue through the night, though with weakening lake effect
parameters precipitation, of lower elevation rain and higher terrain
snow, will diminish through the night.

Northwest flow will still impact KROC and KART through the over time
hours at times with precipitation, while KBUF, KIAG and KJHW will
remain mainly dry. Visibilities will predominately remain VFR across
the lower terrain in any showers, though higher terrain snow will
bring brief periods of IFR visibilities.

Tomorrow surface high pressure will build towards the TAF region,
with mid level clouds dissipating across WNY, while strato-cu lingers
from about the Genesee Valley eastward.

Outlook...

Friday afternoon through Saturday morning... Mainly VFR.

Saturday afternoon...Deteriorating to MVFR/IFR in rain from
west to east.

Saturday night and Sunday...MVFR/IFR in rain, possibly mixing with
snow/brief freezing rain east of Lake Ontario. Rain changes to
showers/snow showers Sunday afternoon and night behind a cold front.

Monday...A mixture of MVFR/IFR with a potential for rain and snow
showers off the lakes.

Tuesday...MVFR in limited lake effect precipitation, otherwise VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Northwest flow will remain over the Lakes tonight as a deep surface
low cuts northward across eastern Canada. Long duration small craft
advisories remain in place as outlined below on both the Lakes and
Niagara River.

As surface high pressure approaches the lower Great Lakes tomorrow,
winds and waves will briefly fall below small craft conditions.

The next storm system this weekend will bring an increasing
southerly flow on the Lakes Saturday, with waves possibly reaching 4-
feet on Lake Erie, then after the passage of a cold front Saturday
night, both winds and waves will increase on the Lower Lakes to
small craft criteria.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
         LOZ030.
         Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Thomas
NEAR TERM...Thomas
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...Thomas