638
FXUS61 KBUF 020701
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
301 AM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Only minor changes to the forecast with this
update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A cold front brings a round of beneficial rain showers through
the first half of today, followed by dry weather and seasonable
temperatures this weekend.

2) Below average temperatures with frost potential early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A cold front brings a round of beneficial rain
showers through the first half of today, followed by dry weather and
seasonable temperatures this weekend.

A mid level trough digging across the upper Great Lakes is forcing a
cold front southeast through western and northcentral NY this
morning, with the main area of anafrontal rain showers perched just
off to our northwest and slowly sagging southeastward. Ahead of the
front, PWAT values are near the 100th percentile for this time of
year, along with a stout 35-45 knot southwesterly LLJ. However, with
the showers being mainly anafrontal in nature, this activity will
not be able to take full advantage of the more plentiful moisture
and much stronger forcing for ascent along and ahead of the low
level portion of the front. Thus, while there will be a period of
beneficial showers, the heavy rainfall/flooding threat will be near
zero. The main window for more persistent showers will be this
morning through midday/early afternoon, just behind the surface cold
front. Rainfall amounts of a half to three-quarters of an inch are
expected across a good chunk of the area, with lesser amounts
expected across the interior Southern Tier, Finger Lakes, and
southern Tug Hill region. A few widely scattered light showers may
linger in the wake of the cold front this afternoon, especially
toward the North Country, otherwise dry and seasonable weather is on
tap for the upcoming weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Below average temperatures with frost potential
early next week.

A few showers may accompany a strong cold front forecast to cross
the area Sunday night, ushering in the coolest airmass we`ve seen
since last spring. 850 mb temperatures are expected to plunge to
near 0C to -2C during the first part of next week, with daytime
highs not climbing out of the 50`s for much of the region, and
possibly only upper 40`s for highs across the Tug Hill and western
Dacks by Tuesday.

The axis of a strong upper level trough axis will cross the area
Monday, possibly producing a few additional showers, otherwise
mainly dry weather is expected. The main impact will be frost
potential Monday night, and possibly again Tuesday night, especially
inland of the lakeshores.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Cold front entering northern portions of the forecast area as of
this writing. Although there are currently a few scattered light
showers north of the Thruway, the main area of anafrontal rain
showers is perched just off to our northwest and slowly sagging
southeastward. The main window for more persistent showers will be
this morning through midday/early afternoon just behind the surface
cold front, with predominantly light to moderate intensities
yielding mainly MVFR VSBYs, although brief IFR VSBYs will be
possible within any heavier showers. The more impactful element for
flight ops will be a period of widespread IFR/LIFR CIGS from early
this morning through midday/early afternoon. A return to mainly VFR
flight conditions will then take place from northwest to southeast
from early to mid afternoon, lasting through at least the end of the
06Z TAF period.

Outlook...

Tonight through Sunday...Dry weather and mainly VFR likely. Morning
fog is possible, especially along/near the river and lake valleys of
the Western Southern Tier, Finger Lakes, and North-Central NY.

Sunday night through Monday...Periodic rain showers with MVFR
or worse possible.

Monday night through Tuesday...Dry weather and mainly VFR
likely. Morning fog is possible, especially along/near the river
and lake valleys of the Western Southern Tier, Finger Lakes,
and North-Central NY.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds veer NWerly this morning with wind speeds 10-15 knots through
around midday, before increasing during the second half of the day
bringing a period of low-end SCA conditions from Hamlin Beach to
near the Saint Lawrence River later this afternoon through tonight,
for which a SCA is in effect. There is the possibility that SCAs may
need to be expanded westward to the Niagara River with a later
update.

Otherwise, high pressure will bring a return to lighter winds and
lower wave action on the Lakes this weekend, before a strong cold
front plows across the lower Great Lakes Sunday night, with
freshening NWerlies likely bringing a round of solid Small Craft
Advisory conditions later Sunday night into Monday night. Conditions
will improve by Tuesday with a weakening pressure gradient as high
pressure moves over the eastern Great Lakes.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 AM EDT
         Saturday for LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM