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000
FXUS61 KBUF 260607
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
207 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Canadian high pressure draped across New York State will slide east
to the New England coastline Friday...while providing us with
continued tranquil weather. After one last cold night tonight...
temperatures will rebound into the upper 50s and 60s on Friday as a
return flow of milder air develops around the departing high. The
warming trend will then continue over the weekend and into early
next week...resulting in late spring to summerlike warmth engulfing
our region both Sunday and Monday. While there will also be a few
showers and thunderstorms around, particularly during Saturday, a
fair amount of dry time can also be expected. A cold front will then
bring our next chance for more widespread showers and a few
thunderstorms as it crosses our region Monday night and Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
...Unseasonably Cold Temperatures Overnight...

High pressure sprawled across New York State will slowly drift
eastward to eastern New York/western New England overnight...while
continuing to provide us with clear...dry...and tranquil conditions.
The lingering cool airmass...light winds...and clear skies will
again provide prime conditions for strong radiational cooling...
particularly east of Lake Ontario where the core of the high will
remain centered overhead. Expect lows to range from the lower 20s
across interior portions of the North Country to the lower to mid
30s along the Lake Erie shoreline...where a developing weak ESE
return flow will help to keep things a little "milder".

On Friday the high will drift further east to the New England
coastline...while keeping fair dry weather intact across our region
for another day. While there could be some very thin/spotty high
clouds...as well as very some limited afternoon diurnal cumulus
across far western New York...these will not mar what will again be
abundant amounts of sunshine. With a return flow of milder air
setting up on the backside of the departing high...temps will
rebound rather nicely after the chilly start to the day...with highs
climbing back to the upper 50s across the North Country and to the
lower to mid 60s elsewhere. This said...an ENE flow off Lake Ontario
will help to keep temps along the south shore of that lake confined
to the 50s.

Friday night the surface high will remain anchored just offshore of
the New England coast...while sharp upper-level ridging builds
across New York State. Meanwhile further west...an initial cutter-
type low will weaken as it tracks from the central Plains states to
the Upper Mississippi Valley. As it does so this system will push
its attendant warm front east toward our region...where it will run
smack up against the strong ridging that we`ll have in place aloft.
With this in mind...it`s no surprise that the guidance suite
continues to trend slower and weaker with the approaching front...
with this feature now appearing to advance east slowly enough to
merely bring a general west-east in mid and high cloud cover to most
areas tonight...with perhaps the chance of a shower reaching
Chautauqua county late. Otherwise the night should remain dry...and
will feature considerably milder temperatures than the previous two
as the southeasterly return flow of milder air strengthens across
our region. Expect lows to range from the upper 30s across the North
Country to near 50 along the Lake Erie shoreline...where downsloping
will provide an added boost to temps...and may also allow winds to
gust to 30-35 mph during the second half of the night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Mid-level ridging overhead of the Great Lakes Friday night will give
become zonal due to a shortwave trough passing through the next
incoming longwave trough to the west across the northern Plains.
Said shortwave trough will support a surface low overhead of the
northern Plains sprawling a warm front across the Great Lakes. 12Z
guidance continues to support the warm front to arrive late Friday
night/early Saturday morning, before weakening and crossing from
west to east Saturday and Saturday night.

Heading into Sunday, the region will lie under ample warm air
advection supporting temperatures at 850mb to warm up to +12/13 C
which will support high temperatures well above normal and ranging
in the 70s, and possibly a few locations across the warmer areas of
the Genesee Valley reaching in the low 80s. Combination of the
warmer temperatures and the lingering synoptic lift from the
lingering/stalled cold front to the north of the area, will support
diurnally driven instability and afternoon showers/thunderstorms.

The mid-level ridge axis will cross the area Sunday night supporting
a some dry weather to return Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Monday, will focus any chances for convective showers near a
lingering frontal boundary that will waver across the Finger Lakes
and eastern Lake Ontario region. Could see a few thunderstorms
during the afternoon with several hundred J/KG of MUCAPE, though
much of the afternoon should be dry with developing lake breeze
boundaries keeping areas closer to Lake Erie stable.

The main cold front will cross our region Tuesday with additional
showers and thunderstorms. Showers and isolated thunder ahead of the
front will reach a still mild WNY late Monday night and Tuesday
morning. Best chances for thunder will be towards the east where a
later arrival of the cold front will allow for some daytime
instability to grow.

Still some timing differences with the eventual passage of the mid
level trough, with chances for showers either Wednesday or Thursday
depending upon timing of upper level support.

It will be a pleasantly warm day ahead of the cold front
Monday, with southwesterly flow and 850 hPa temperatures 12-13C,
promoting widespread upper 70s and lower 80s, and even mid 80s
in the Genesee Valley. This southwest flow will keep downtown
Buffalo a bit cooler. Also depending upon the eventual set up of
a stalled frontal boundary draped across the eastern waters of
Lake Ontario, a possible northerly component to the wind may
keep the southeast shoreline a bit cooler.

Cooler, but still above normal temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday,
with around normal temperatures Thursday in the presence of the mid
level trough and its associated cooler airmass.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Canadian high pressure draped across New York State will slide east
to the New England coastline Friday...while providing us with
continued fair dry weather. While there could be some very thin/
spotty high clouds...as well as very some limited afternoon diurnal
cumulus across far western New York during Friday...these will not
prevent a continuation of unlimited VFR conditions through 00z
Saturday.

Friday night weakening low pressure will make its way from Nebraska
to Minnesota...while pushing its attendant warm front toward our
region. While this will bring a general west-to-east increase in mid
and high cloud cover along with a chance of showers to extreme far
southwestern New York late...flight conditions will remain VFR.

Outlook...

Saturday...VFR/MVFR with some showers likely and an isolated
thunderstorm possible.

Sunday and Monday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms.

Monday night and Tuesday...MVFR/VFR with showers likely along with
a chance of thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Canadian high pressure draped across New York State will slowly
drift east to eastern New York and western New England overnight.
This will keep modest east-northeasterlies intact on Lake Erie...
with light to modest easterlies to southeasterlies found across Lake
Ontario.

On Friday the high will slide further east to the New England
coastline...with a general easterly to northeasterly flow continuing
across the lower Great Lakes. On Lake Ontario winds will be more
easterly...and will become strong enough to bring advisory-level
conditions to the portions of the lake west of Rochester Friday
afternoon and evening. Meanwhile on Lake Erie...winds will back to
northeasterly and increase to 10-15 knots once again...resulting in
the development of a moderate chop.

Friday night and Saturday the high will remain anchored off the New
England coast...while low pressure tracks from the central Plains to
central Ontario. This will result in winds across the Lower Lakes
veering to southeast and then south while strengthening later Friday
night into Saturday...though the increasingly offshore nature of the
flow will help to direct the greatest wave action across Canadian
waters. As a result...conditions will likely remain below advisory
criteria.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 11 PM EDT this evening
         for LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...Thomas
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR