568
FXUS61 KBUF 151734
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
134 PM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Only minor changes with this forecast update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday and Sunday night.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible Monday.

2) Cold front brings another round of scattered showers and
possible thunderstorms during the midweek period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1...Scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday and
Sunday night. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible Monday.

High pressure currently over the region will slide east tonight.
Surface low is forecast to track from the upper Great Lakes Sunday
to southern New England by Sunday night. This low track will bring a
surface warm frontal segment northeast Sunday through Sunday
evening, sending warmer and more humid air into the region, and be
followed by the passage of a cold front Sunday night and Monday
morning.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop mainly in
the afternoon and evening along and ahead of the surface warm and
cold fronts as diurnal destabilization develops within the warm
sector. Severe thunderstorm potential looks limited with only
marginal instability and unfavorable shear profiles. PWATs
rising to near 2.00" will bring the potential for locally heavy
rain, but this threat should remain isolated.

Key Message 2...Cold front brings another round of scattered showers
and possible thunderstorms during the midweek period.

High pressure across the region Tuesday will exit by midweek,
allowing a cold front to move through the region. Current guidance
brings the front through late Wednesday and Wednesday night bringing
another round of showers and possible thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
With surface high pressure centered overhead this afternoon, expect
mainly dry weather with light variable winds and overall VFR
conditions to prevail.

A surface low currently over the upper mid-west will slide east
across southern Canada tonight, supporting a surface warm front to
pass across the central Great Lakes, and approach the eastern Great
Lakes by Sunday morning, reaching far WNY around 18Z Sunday. With
the front, expect showers and thunderstorms to pass east across the
region throughout the afternoon. Within any storm, expect brief MVFR
to LIFR conditions.

Outlook...

Sunday Night...Periodic showers and thunderstorms with MVFR or worse
conditions expected.

Monday...Mainly VFR with a chance for isolated rain showers.

Monday Night through Tuesday...Mainly VFR. Overnight/early morning
river valley fog possible supporting localized MVFR to LIFR
conditions across the Southern Tier, Finger Lakes and eastern Lake
Ontario region.

Wednesday...MVFR conditions possible with a chance for showers and
thunderstorms.

Thursday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Primarily northeast and east winds at 15 knots or less expected
across the lower Great Lakes through tonight. A brief elevated
flow on the western end of Lake Ontario will allow for a period
of low end small craft conditions west of Rochester this
afternoon, with wave heights possibly reaching 4 feet for a
brief time.

Low pressure will move through the lower Great Lakes Sunday into
Monday. A warm frontal passage Sunday will turn winds more southerly
with a northwest flow behind a cold front Sunday night. Speeds
during these times should remain below 15 knots. Any marine
headlines will likely be tied to periodic shower/thunderstorm
activity Sunday into Monday.

High pressure will build into the lower Great Lakes Tuesday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for LOZ042.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TMA
AVIATION...EAJ
MARINE...TMA