569
FXUS61 KBUF 281738
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
138 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the eastern Great Lakes this afternoon and
evening with showers and scattered thunderstorms producing
widespread, beneficial rain. The widespread rain will end from west
to east overnight, but a few widely scattered lake effect rain
showers will continue through Friday southeast of the lakes. The
coolest airmass since mid June will arrive Friday with temperatures
well below average. Mainly dry weather and a warming trend will then
arrive for the Labor Day weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A sharp mid level trough will close off into a mid level low over
southern Quebec tonight through Friday night, with an associated
surface cold front crossing the eastern Great Lakes this evening.
Strong forcing in the DPVA and height falls ahead of the trough and
strong convergence along the advancing cold front will be aided by
additional lake generated instability to support widespread showers
and embedded scattered thunderstorms along and ahead of the front.
The rain will peak in coverage across the area this evening before
tapering off from west to east overnight. This will bring beneficial
rain to our region, with 0.25" to 0.50" on average and embedded
pockets of around 1.0" where lake enhanced convection develops east
of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario.

A much cooler airmass will pour into the Great Lakes behind the cold
front, supporting scattered lake effect rain showers overnight
through Friday morning southeast of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. The
airmass dries out quickly Friday, so most of the lake effect showers
will end by midday. Another spoke of vorticity orbiting the mid
level closed low will clip the eastern Lake Ontario region late
Friday afternoon and evening, and this may support a few more
scattered showers over and east/southeast of Lake Ontario.

The coolest airmass since mid June will arrive Friday, with highs
only in the low to mid 60s for lower elevations and 50s across
higher terrain. Lows Friday night will drop well into the 40s inland
from the immediate lakeshores, with some upper 30s possible in
sheltered Southern Tier valleys and the Tug Hill.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The center of a stacked low pressure system will slowly drift from
southern Quebec to New Brunswick through Sunday morning, then east
across the Canadian Maritimes through Monday while further
weakening. Cool cyclonic flow around this system will allow for at
least a couple more days of below normal temps, though moderating
temps aloft will translate to sfc temps will see a more notable day
to day warming trend. By Monday daytime highs will average close to
normal for the first of September though with nighttime lows
remaining on the cool side through Monday night.

While the initial overhead airmass will be cool enough aloft to
cause a lake response over the weekend, with strong high pressure
building in there appears to be too little synoptic moisture to
meaningfully add chances for lake effect showers at this juncture.
Even the typically aggressive CMCreg has been mostly dry through the
period for the past couple of runs. The best chances for any precip
are thus expected to be closer to the departing trough up near the
Western Adirondacks and St. Lawrence Valley Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
An expansive sfc to mid level ridge will extend to the Ohio Valley
and Mid-Alantic regions from the Canadian Maritimes Tuesday through
Wednesday. Mainly dry weather with seasonably warm temperatures will
prevail as a result. The next deep longwave trough will then dig
southward into the Great Lakes heading into the second half of the
week, forcing the next strong cold front into the region with
increasing chances for precip. Low confidence in timing of showers
and potential thunderstorms associated with this system, as long
range guidance appears to have a poor handle on the degree of
phasing between the northern and southern stream jets.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A cold front will sweep east across the eastern Great Lakes late
this afternoon and evening, with a period of widespread showers and
a few scattered thunderstorms. Initial VFR CIGS will deteriorate to
MVFR lower elevations and IFR higher terrain a few hours after the
rain begins, with lower CIGS lingering behind the cold front
overnight. It will remain quite breezy into this evening, with gusts
of 25+ knots especially over and northeast of Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario.

The widespread rain will taper off from west to east overnight, but
scattered lake effect rain showers will linger southeast of Lake
Ontario and Lake Erie into Friday morning. MVFR CIGS (and higher
terrain IFR) Friday morning will gradually improve to mainly VFR for
the afternoon.

Outlook...

Friday night...A few lake effect showers and MVFR CIGS possible east
and southeast of Lake Ontario. Otherwise VFR.


Saturday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR. Local IFR in river valley fog
each late night and morning across the Southern Tier.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front will move east across the lower Great Lakes this
evening. Moderate to strong southwesterlies ahead of the front will
continue to produce solid Small Craft Advisory conditions on Lake
Erie and Lake Ontario. Winds will become northwest behind the front
tonight, with Small Craft Advisory conditions continuing on Lake
Ontario through early Friday morning.

Northwest winds will remain elevated Friday through Saturday,
especially on Lake Ontario, producing a moderate chop.

Conditions will be very favorable for Waterspouts this afternoon and
evening with deep instability over the lakes and strong convergence
along bands of lake enhanced showers and thunderstorms along and
ahead of the cold front. A few more waterspouts are possible in lake
effect rain showers overnight through Friday evening.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Beach Hazards Statement from 7 PM EDT this evening through
     late tonight for NYZ006.
     Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for NYZ007-010-
     019-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for LOZ045.
         Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for
         LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Friday for LOZ043.
         Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 7 AM EDT
         Friday for LOZ044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock
SHORT TERM...PP
LONG TERM...PP
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock