344
FXUS61 KBUF 141122
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
622 AM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Lake effect snow and rain showers continue this morning, before
tapering off throughout the day today from west to east. The
majority of the lake effect shower activity will lie east of the
lower Genesee Valley and Finger Lakes. High pressure building
overhead tonight, will support a brief period of mainly dry weather
across much of Friday night into Saturday morning. Temperatures will
rise to around 10 degrees above normal Saturday, ahead of the next
storm system that will bring a period of rain Saturday afternoon and
Saturday night. Behind a cold front Sunday rain showers will change
over to snow, with a little lake effect snow southeast of the Lakes
Sunday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Current radar imagery this morning is depicting diminishing
northwest flow lake effect rain and higher terrain snow showers
across across the areas east of the Genesee Valley and across the
Finger Lakes, as well as a few upslope showers across the Tug Hill.

Across the western portions of the area, dry air associated with
the northern periphery of surface high pressure centered over the
Carolinas will gradually shift east into the region today supporting
mainly dry weather. Meanwhile, a colder airmass will remain across
the eastern portions of the forecast area. This combined with a
passing shortwave trough, will support scattered northwest flow
light lake effect rain and higher elevation snow showers to persist
east and southeast of Lake Ontario.

Aforementioned surface high pressure and associated drier air will
continue to spread east tonight, supporting ongoing light lake
effect showers to peter off.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Saturday will start dry with lingering dry air and subsidence across
the eastern Great Lakes as high pressure drifts east towards New
England. A progressive mid level trough will then dig southeast
across Ontario and the Great Lakes later Saturday through Saturday
night, with a deepening surface low passing just north of Lake
Ontario Saturday night. Strong forcing for ascent in the DPVA/height
falls regime ahead of the trough will combine with warm advection
and moisture transport to allow rain to develop from west to east
across the area late morning through afternoon Saturday. The cold
front of the system will then sweep east across the eastern Great
Lakes Saturday night, with ongoing showers.

Precipitation will be all rain until close to daybreak Sunday as
much cooler air aloft pours back into the Great Lakes behind the
system. Rainfall amounts will be relatively limited with the fast
movement of this system. Expect 0.10" to 0.25" for the lower
elevations of Western NY (a little more for higher terrain of the
western Southern Tier), and 0.50" to 0.75" east of Lake Ontario
where low level forcing strengthens as the surface low deepens.

A secondary coastal low will develop over the Gulf of Maine Sunday,
with the resulting deep low then moving into the Canadian Maritimes
Monday. Cold, cyclonic NW flow in the wake of this system will
support lake effect rain and snow showers southeast of the lakes
through the period. The airmass may grow cold enough for some snow
accumulation, primarily Sunday night through the first half of
Monday when the coldest air aloft and in the boundary layer crosses
the eastern Great Lakes. Still much too early for any details on
amounts or band location, but in general the pattern supports
relatively modest snow amounts southeast of the lakes.

It will be quite windy Sunday through Monday as colder air pours
back into the Great Lakes, with gusts in the 30-40 mph range
possible.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The deep low pressure system over the Canadian Maritimes Monday
night will gradually move away from the area Tuesday through
Wednesday, with surface high pressure building into the western
Great Lakes. Lake effect snow showers Monday night will gradually
diminish, although a few rain/wet snow showers may continue
southeast of the lakes Tuesday through Wednesday with minimal
amounts and impact.

High pressure will build east across the Great Lakes later Wednesday
through Thursday, bringing a brief period of mainly dry weather.
Model guidance begins to diverge on the track and timing of the next
system as a mid level trough and surface low move out of the
Southern Plains and towards the Ohio Valley. Rain chances will
gradually increase again late next week with this system, but the
latest 00Z guidance suggests rain may hold off until later Friday or
Friday night.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Scattered light rain and higher elevation snow showers persist this
morning, primarily impacting areas east of the lower Genesee Valley.
Mainly VFR conditions prevail across all TAF sites this morning.
Within the scattered light lake showers a few areas of low VFR/MVFR
CIGS are possible southeast of Lake Ontario and across the higher
terrain east of Lake Ontario. Brief reductions in VSBY will be
possible in any higher elevation snow showers.

Today, surface high pressure building into the region from the west,
will support mainly VFR and dry conditions across western New York
(west of the Genesee Valley). A shortwave trough diving southeast
across the eastern portions of the region today (east of the Genesee
Valley/Finger Lakes), will continue to support light lake effect
rain and higher elevation snow showers today. Similar to current
conditions, the showers will support brief VSBY reductions from the
possible snow showers. Additionally, CIGS will continue to remain
low end VFR, with MVFR possible across the higher terrain.

Surface high pressure will slide east tonight, supporting lake
effect showers to diminish and VFR conditions to prevail.

Outlook...

Saturday morning... Mainly VFR.

Saturday afternoon...Deteriorating to MVFR/IFR in rain from
west to east.

Saturday night and Sunday...MVFR/IFR in rain, possibly mixing with
snow/brief freezing rain east of Lake Ontario. Rain changes to
showers/snow showers Sunday afternoon and night behind a cold front.

Monday...A mixture of MVFR/IFR with a potential for rain and snow
showers off the lakes.

Tuesday...MVFR in limited lake effect precipitation, otherwise VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Northwest flow will remain over the Lakes early tonight as a deep
surface low cuts northward across eastern Canada. Long duration
Small Craft Advisories remain in place as outlined below on Lake
Ontario this morning, although small craft headlines have been
extended through mid morning Friday for southeastern Lake Ontario.

As surface high pressure approaches the lower Great Lakes, winds and
waves will fall below small craft conditions Friday through Saturday
morning.

The next storm system this weekend will bring an increasing
southerly flow ahead of an approaching cold front on the Lakes
Saturday afternoon, with waves possibly reaching 4 feet on Lake Erie
by late in the day. Then following the passage of the cold front
Saturday night, both winds and waves will increase on the Lower
Lakes with an extended period of high-end Small Craft Advisories
from Saturday night through Monday night

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for LOZ043-
         044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EAJ
NEAR TERM...EAJ
SHORT TERM...Hitchcock
LONG TERM...Hitchcock
AVIATION...EAJ
MARINE...EAJ/JM/Thomas