487
FXUS65 KBYZ 100810
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
110 AM MST Mon Nov 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty winds along the foothills today and Tuesday; breezy over
  the eastern plains Tuesday.

- Much above normal temperatures through Thursday; a few daily
  record highs may be approached.

- Turning cooler (but not cold) and unsettled starting Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Through next weekend...

Satellite imagery shows a high amplitude pattern over the U.S.,
with a deep trof over the east and western ridging. The ridge axis
itself is over the northern Rockies and there is plenty of mid and
high cloud spilling into our area. An upstream Pacific shortwave
over BC is starting to flatten the ridge. At the surface,
downslope gradients have steadily tightened and the IDA-LWT
difference stands at 12mb as of 07z. Mid level winds are not
strong however (~25kts at 700mb) and thus gap flow really hasn`t
materialized yet. In fact, Livingston continues to battle the
cooler air draining the Shields valley.

As mid level winds increase early this morning we will see gusts
increase at Livingston and Nye...but the increase will be offset
by today`s diurnal heating. Greatest potential for advisory level
gusts (50%) seems to be this evening prior to a cold front`s
arrival, but couldn`t rule it out before then. Will make no
changes to the Wind Advisory in place for the Livingston Area and
Beartooth Foothills. Late tonight into Tuesday, the aforementioned
fropa will end the gap flow and bring increasing SW-W winds at
Big Timber and Harlowton. There is a 50% chance of 50+ mph gusts
at these locations. Gusty westerly winds will spread across the
east on Tuesday with gusts 25-35 mph. Mid level winds are expected
to reach their max by 06z tonight so the mixed wind potential
tomorrow is somewhat limited.

The PV axis associated with the BC wave will sag thru our region
tonight. Given the strong downsloping and dry boundary layer, it
looks like at most we will see mid cloud virga or sprinkles.

Temps today will rise to the 60s to near 70F, and a few sites will
approach daily records:
SITE        FCST   RECORD
Billings     65   68 (2007)
Livingston   67   66 (1996)
Sheridan     70   72 (1956)

Tuesday & Wednesday will be a bit cooler but still well above
normal with highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s. A push of warmer air
Thursday should get temps well into the 60s and perhaps near 70F
again. Thursday`s records may also be challenged. Dry conditions
will prevail through the entire period (today through Thursday).

Confidence is high that the ridge will break down with a stronger
Pacific trof Friday. This will bring some mountain snow but the
expected splitting nature of the trof means only scattered
rain/snow showers at lower elevations (0.10" or less of precip)
Friday into Saturday. Ensemble consensus is for a rebuilding ridge
in the late Saturday through Sunday or early Monday time frame.
Expect another Pacific trof to arrive next Monday bringing the
next chance (30-50%) of precipitation.

One item to watch is Typhoon Fung-Wong in the western Pacific near
the Philippines. It is expected to lift near Taiwan then quickly
go extratropical, eventually reaching the Aleutians next weekend.
This storm seems to jolt the longwave pattern in the north Pacific
which in turn suggests more uncertainty with our weather by early
next week. There is a low chance (20%) of lower elevation snow
with a trof next Monday/Tuesday. Something to monitor over the
coming days.

JKL

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours. Strong winds
are expected over the western foothills and gap areas. Locations
such as K6S0 and K3HT will see wind gusts into the 30s kts with
KLVM seeing wind gusts into the 40s kts. Torgerson

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 065 044/064 037/061 039/065 040/050 030/047 028/049
    0/N 00/N    00/B    00/B    14/W    31/B    01/B
LVM 067 043/061 035/063 039/063 034/045 022/043 025/048
    0/N 00/N    00/B    00/B    45/W    31/B    11/B
HDN 067 040/063 032/060 034/067 036/052 027/047 024/050
    0/B 10/U    00/B    00/B    14/W    41/B    00/B
MLS 063 040/060 029/057 033/064 036/052 030/048 025/049
    0/B 00/N    00/B    00/B    02/W    21/B    00/U
4BQ 065 041/058 031/059 036/066 042/055 031/046 026/048
    0/B 00/U    00/B    00/U    02/W    31/B    00/U
BHK 058 036/056 025/056 031/063 036/055 027/045 022/046
    0/B 00/N    00/B    00/B    01/B    21/B    00/U
SHR 070 037/062 030/061 034/067 035/051 022/043 020/048
    0/B 00/U    00/B    00/U    14/W    51/B    00/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Wind Advisory in effect until 9 AM MST Tuesday FOR ZONES
      65-66.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings