112
FXUS65 KBYZ 281151
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
551 AM MDT Mon Sep 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lingering light showers across eastern Montana.

- Good chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms across the
  Beartooth/Absaroka and Big Horns today.

- Mild and dry pattern prevails Tuesday into the weekend.


&&

.UPDATE...
Threat of stronger thunderstorms across the eastern border
counties has diminished this morning. Anticipate lingering showers
across this area. Other area of convection is lifting into our
western counties, particularly the Beartooths vicinity. This is
expected to slide east across the mountains and MT/WY border area
today. No severe storms are expected, mainly showers with some
embedded thunder. A few showers could clip the Billings area
between 8 am and 11 am. BT

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Next 7 days (through next Sunday)...

Split troffing will be over the area today. This will keep
isolated to scattered showers, and a few embedded thunderstorms,
in the forecast through early evening. Outside of far southeast
Montana, none of this activity is expected to be very substantial.
There is a slight chance for a strong storm or two late
afternoon/early evening along the eastern state line counties
(Fallon/Carter), but models are keeping the majority of the
stronger activity east of Montana. Monday night drier air will
build in from the west as the weak trof aloft exits to the east.
This will bring an end to precipitation chances across the region
by late evening.

Models continue to advertise a mild and mainly dry forecast for
the week ahead. There have been a couple of weak cool air
intrusions added into the models over the past 24 hours. One
arrives Wednesday as a weak dry cold front, and a similar
situation develops for Saturday. Ahead of the Wednesday front,
forecast high temperatures on Tuesday have increased into the mid
to upper 70s with a few lower 80s not out of the question. Behind
the front Wednesday, highs drop about 10 degrees back to around
70. Highs for the rest of the week into the weekend range between
65 and 75 degrees with a lot of sunshine and dry conditions.
Expect breezy conditions in the afternoon Tuesday and Wednesday
across western (Livingston, Big Timber, Harlowton) and northern
(Harlowton to Baker) portions of the forecast area. Chambers


.AVIATION...

12Z update...The stronger storms have moved east into the Dakotas
this morning. Expect just some lighter scattered to isolated
showers over the MT/Dakotas border area. We do have some MVFR to
IFR ceilings that have developed across the east (KMLS, KBHK) and
may linger through 18Z. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected to impact the Beartooths and Big Horns today as well. Mtn
tops may be obscured at times. This may impact the KLVM and KSHR
vicinities. BT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 070 046/077 050/071 044/068 047/074 050/068 045/068
    1/B 00/U    00/U    00/U    00/B    11/B    10/U
LVM 070 039/075 044/071 038/071 042/076 044/068 039/070
    3/T 10/U    00/U    00/U    00/B    11/B    10/U
HDN 070 043/078 046/071 042/070 044/076 047/069 043/069
    1/E 10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    10/U
MLS 070 047/077 050/069 043/066 045/074 050/068 045/066
    1/E 00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    10/U
4BQ 070 048/077 050/070 045/068 047/075 050/069 045/067
    2/W 10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    10/U
BHK 071 046/077 048/070 039/064 041/073 046/068 041/064
    3/W 10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    10/U
SHR 067 042/075 043/070 040/069 041/075 044/068 040/068
    3/W 21/U    00/U    10/U    00/U    11/U    21/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
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