960
FXUS65 KBYZ 051203
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
603 AM MDT Fri Jun 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly warm and dry into early Saturday.

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Saturday with a
  late day cold front. A few thunderstorms may become strong to
  severe over eastern Montana.

- Daily chance of showers and thunderstorms continues Sunday into
  next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Quiet night ongoing as ridge builds from the west. Dewpt
depressions are only 1-3F across the east and still feel localized
valley fog is a possibility between now and daybreak, and in fact
the latest HRRR runs favor fog just a bit more. Otherwise, today
will be dry with temps well into the 80s, consistent w/ 700mb
temps rising to near +10C. Saturday will be hotter with mid 80s
west to mid 90s east. Daily record highs should be approached at
Sheridan & Baker (the two sites w/ records most achievable).
Wouldn`t be surprised to see Sheridan, Broadus and Miles City push
the upper 90s on Saturday as the cold front arrives late. Height
falls and this cold front will result in a chance of afternoon and
evening t-storms. The Day2 risk still highlights our east with a
marginal risk of severe storms, and a slight risk near Miles City
and Baker northward thru northeast MT and western ND. 700mb temp
plume near +15C over southeast MT is very warm for a severe risk,
especially for hail, so the greater potential is definitely north
where mid level temps are cooler. Convection further west and
south will be high-based and weaker. Western areas will see better
chances of showers late Saturday night as large scale ascent w/
the Pacific trof increases. JKL

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Next 7 Days (Through next Thursday)...

Upper level ridging builds in today, bringing warmer and mostly
dry conditions into early Saturday, with highs in the 80s to low
90s. A deepening Pacific trough over the west coast will
gradually turn flow out of the southwest, allowing wind gusts to
increase to 20 to 40 mph over the mountains and foothills (highest
over the mountains) this afternoon. Then, overnight into early
Saturday morning, a low level jet will bring occasional gusts of
20 to 30 mph near the Dakota border.

As the trough approaches and continues to turn flow out of the
southwest, moisture will continue to flow into the region and
winds will again be breezy over the mountains and foothills. A
cold front moving through will allow scattered showers and
thunderstorms (40-60% chance) to develop over the west in the
afternoon, moving northeast through the evening. Currently, strong
to severe storms are most favored over northeast Montana, with
large hail and strong winds as the main threats.

Behind the cold front, Sunday will be cooler and unsettled, with
widespread scattered showers and thunderstorms (50-70% chance)
through the day as the trough moves through the region. Highs will
range from 60s over the west to near 80 over the east. If you
have outdoor plans this weekend, make sure to stay weather aware
and have a plan to move to a safe location if a storm approaches.

Into at least the middle of next week, conditions look to remain
unsettled as another trough sets up to the west, continuing to
allow additional moisture into the region and occasional waves of
energy. Archer

.AVIATION...

Issued 12Z. Localized valley fog is possible east of Rosebud
County thru ~14z this morning, but confidence in this impacting a
TAF site is very low (<10%). VFR will otherwise prevail over the
next 24hrs as high pressure aloft builds over the region. SW winds
will turn breezy at KLVM this afternoon, with gusts to 25kts. JKL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 088 058/088 056/070 046/079 054/083 053/076 051/071
    0/U 02/T    26/T    41/B    11/B    46/T    65/T
LVM 085 049/084 048/065 036/073 045/074 043/067 040/062
    0/U 02/T    58/T    30/B    13/T    58/T    77/T
HDN 089 055/091 054/073 044/080 052/084 051/078 049/071
    0/U 02/T    26/T    51/U    11/B    35/T    66/T
MLS 086 059/094 057/075 048/077 056/086 056/079 053/073
    0/U 02/B    32/T    61/U    21/B    33/W    65/T
4BQ 087 059/097 058/077 048/079 057/089 056/081 053/074
    0/U 02/T    32/T    71/U    11/B    24/W    54/T
BHK 083 056/094 057/079 046/075 053/087 055/080 052/074
    0/U 02/U    41/B    61/U    21/B    33/W    54/W
SHR 088 051/095 053/074 042/081 050/085 049/078 046/071
    0/U 02/T    27/T    71/U    11/B    35/T    67/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
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