988
FXUS65 KBYZ 230914
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
214 AM MST Sun Nov 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Continued warm and dry today. Gusty foothills winds.

- Strong cold front Monday. Scattered precipitation
  (rain/snow/isold Tstms) chances (30-60%) along and behind the
  front.

- Gusty to occasionally strong wind gusts (30 to 45 mph) Monday
  afternoon through Tuesday morning behind the cold front.

- Near to below normal temperatures Tuesday through Friday.
  Periods of light rain or snow possible (20-40%) Wednesday
  through Friday.

- Even colder air arrives Friday night with the potential for the
  first significant snowfall of the season across the area through
  Sunday. Stay tuned if you have Holiday weekend travel plans!

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Sunday...

A few changes to the going forecast this morning. Winds this
morning are overachieving along the western foothills in the
Livingston and Big Timber areas, but should taper off by mid-day. System
for Monday into Tuesday is now an open wave in all models, so the
threat for a wrapped up Blizzard scenario has disappeared from
the forecast. Precipitation for Wednesday night through Friday has
shifted mainly north of the area, though this will continue to be
a tricky forecast period due to the proximity of the boundary of colder
Canadian air over the forecast area. Finally, a lot more
uncertainty has developed for just how cold temperatures will get
next weekend into early the week after, which may impact the snow
forecast for the trip home from Holiday festivities.

Stronger westerly flow aloft is keeping lee side low pressure in
place allowing for elevated winds along the western foothills. As
disturbances/wind speed max`s traverse the mountains they are
producing pressure falls that induce stronger winds at times. This
happened last evening resulting in late evening wind gusts to
overachieve the going forecast gusting into the 50s to lower 60s
in the Livingston vicinity. Expect winds to remain gusty, but
below advisory levels, into mid morning before mixing helps
diminish the stronger gusts. Overall Sunday looks like a very
pleasant late fall day with temperatures in the mid to upper 50s
and winds staying at reasonable levels in the afternoon hours.

Upper trof begins to influence winds late this evening with gusts
in the Livingston area increasing into the 40s and 50s overnight
into Monday morning.

Cold front is currently looking a bit later than previously
forecast, arriving in the western zones by noon-ish, Billings
around 3pm and into Baker by 9pm. Strong pressure rises combined
with increased mid level wind speeds behind the front will make
the frontal passage readily apparent due to the sudden onset of
wind gusts in the 30 to 45 mph range. HREF is also showing a non-
zero chance for thunderstorms along the front with a squall line
signature present in the models especially from Billings east
moving along I-90/US-212 into the early evening hours. The later
frontal timing will allow temperatures to warm up more than
previous forecasts with the NBM showing highs in the upper 40s to
mid 50s. This will keep precipitation type mainly rain to start
with, transitioning to snow an hour or two after the frontal
passage.

Downslope winds will work against significant precipitation
accumulations in the lower elevations during the day. After sunset
winds will remain brisk, especially over the eastern half of the
forecast area. Precipitation transitions to all snow late evening
and will be most prominent over areas east of a Miles City to
Alzada line. Probabilities for an inch or more of snowfall from
late Monday night through noon Tuesday is 50% or lower across this
area. Given the gusty winds there will be periods of poor
visibility in blowing snow that will make travel a bit difficult
and may need a Winter Weather Advisory for Fallon/Carter counties
should the forecast remain consistent over the next 24 hours. For
the rest of the forecast area winter weather impacts with this
system look very minor with the brief squall/thunderstorm
potential along the front the main thing to keep an eye on. Winds
will be gusty (30-45 mph) but don`t appear to rise to highlite
criteria given current guidance.

Tuesday weather is cooler but calmer as the upper trof shifts
quickly east of the area. Morning winds will continue to gust 20
to 35 mph in the morning along the eastern state line, but will
calm significantly in the afternoon. Highs are expected in the 30s
across the area with dry conditions prevailing.

Wednesday through Friday don`t look to bad in the NBM at this time
with temperatures in the 30s and 40s. While precipitation chances
are present through this period (20 to 40 percent), models are
showing little if any accumulation. That said the pattern suggests
the potential for a bit more precipitation as a boundary
separating colder air to the northeast and warmer air trying to
erode the colder air pushes north into the area, while aloft a
strong jet stream sits over the area pushing Pacific moisture and
energy over this persistent boundary. Would expect that wherever
this boundary is at any given time there will be precipitation
which will be a mix of rain/snow, and possibly freezing rain,
depending on which side of the boundary you are. The models
showing broader chance precipitation chances attest to this
potential but along with the QPF in the NBM don`t give a full
picture of the scenario. As the higher resolution models come
into use over the next 48 hours or so should see clarity increase
on where there might be potential travel impacts (minor most
likely) across the forecast area. For now will continue to
advertise near to below normal temperatures and unsettled
conditions around the Thanksgiving day period.

Significant cold air has been forecast to arrive late Friday,
along with the first significant snowfall of the season, for the
past week or so in the long range models. This mornings mid range
models have diverged for the weekend into early next week with
many solutions trending warmer than previously advertised, and
also cutting off the snowfall earlier than previously indicated.
For now the Friday night into Sunday continues to indicate
widespread light snowfall and colder temperatures. The snowfall
will be modulated by the strength and positioning of the cold air
intrusion so the current NBM may be feeling the effects of
lingering forecasts from the past day or two keeping precipitation
chances artificially high compared to the latest model runs.
Those with travel or outdoor plans into the weekend should
continue to monitor the forecast this week for more specific
forecast details during this busy holiday travel period. Chambers

.AVIATION...

Gusty SW winds will taper off late morning at KLVM. VFR conditions
will prevail through the period. TS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 056 037/053 024/038 021/037 027/043 027/040 018/024
    0/B 15/T    21/B    01/E    34/O    33/O    56/S
LVM 055 035/048 018/037 019/040 029/048 029/045 018/026
    0/N 38/T    21/B    13/S    43/O    34/O    56/S
HDN 056 032/053 022/038 017/037 024/044 023/040 016/026
    0/B 14/T    41/B    01/E    24/O    33/O    57/S
MLS 055 034/049 024/034 016/033 020/036 023/033 015/023
    1/B 13/R    51/N    00/B    12/S    33/S    35/S
4BQ 056 034/052 024/033 017/036 022/039 025/038 018/025
    0/B 01/E    52/S    00/B    11/E    22/O    35/S
BHK 055 031/048 021/030 011/032 012/033 017/033 011/023
    0/B 11/E    62/S    00/B    11/E    32/S    34/S
SHR 057 029/053 018/034 014/037 021/046 023/043 015/028
    0/U 11/B    51/N    01/E    22/O    22/O    46/S

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings