011
FXUS65 KBYZ 011140
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
440 AM MST Sun Nov 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of fog through this morning, dense at times. Prepare for
  reductions to visibility.

- High confidence for widespread precipitation later today through
  Monday. Snowfall in the Absaroka/Beartooths and Bighorns and
  rain across the lower elevations. Record daily precipitation
  amounts for the month of November possible for some locations.

- Windy conditions on Monday, gusts 25 to 45 mph. A few gusts of
  50 mph or higher in Southeast Montana and Northern Wyoming.

&&

.UPDATE...
Ground observations indicate areas of dense fog have spread west
toward the foothills. We have expanded the Dense Fog Advisory into
Stillwater County and portions of Park, Sweet Grass and Carbon
Counties. It appears the fog and stratus will be quite stubborn to
improve until late morning. If we see any breaks they may be
brief in the early afternoon before precipitation and moisture
spread up from the south with the approaching weather system. BT

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Saturday ...

Fog...
The combination of low dewpoint depressions, light winds, and low
level inversions will create conditions favorable for the
formation of fog across the region this morning. Expect reductions
to visibility and use caution while traveling. Fog or low level
clouds are expected to remain throughout the day.

Low Elevation Rain... The 500 mb wave that will bring our
upcoming system is currently just off the west coast. This trough
is expected to split as it moves inland. At the surface, a
Colorado Low will form bringing strong southerly winds up the
plains advecting copious Gulf moisture. Ensemble systems are
forecasting impressive PWAT values 250-300% of normal.
Precipitation chances increase across the lower elevations west of
Billings Sunday afternoon before spreading across the region
through the late afternoon and evening. Moderate to heavy rainfall
is expected south and east of Billings where there is a 40-80%
chance of getting greater than 1 inch of rainfall. Chance for
greater than 2 inches decreases to the 20-50% range. With
rainfall potential this high, 24 hour precipitation records for
the month of November are possible. Locations east of Billings
will see easterly winds gusting into the 15-25 mph range this
afternoon.

Mountain Snow...
Snow is expected to begin to fall in the Absaroka/Beartooth
mountains Sunday afternoon before increasing in intensity Sunday
evening through Monday morning. North and west facing slopes can
expect the greatest snowfall amounts with little accumulation
expected in Cooke City. The potential for greater than 12 inches
of snow are limited to the highest peaks on favored slopes. Snow
accumulations are expected to wait until Sunday night for the
Bighorns and increase in intensity Monday morning. There is a
40-80% chance of receiving greater than 6 inches of snow. Falling
snow and winds gusting into the 40s mph will likely lead to
visibility reductions and difficult travel conditions. Snow levels
have been trending down with both the Absaroka/Beartooths and
Bighorns seeing snow levels in the 5,000-5,500 ft range putting
places such as Red Lodge and Story in play. Snow chances are
expected to come to an end Monday evening.

Wind...
A cold front will move across the region Monday increasing winds
out of the north. Strong 700 mb winds are expected to bring winds
gusting into the 30s mph and low 40s mph for most of the region.
Locations along the Dakotas border and Sheridan County WY have the
best chances of seeing winds gusting over 50 mph with 50-90%
chances for these areas. Winds are expected to begin to decrease
Monday evening and further decrease overnight.

Long Term...
Tuesday through the end of the week is currently not expected to
bring impactful weather. Temperatures are expected to remain in
the 50s F with minimal chances for precipitation. Torgerson


.AVIATION...

Areas of IFR/LIFR will be common across the forecast area due to
stubborn stratus ceilings and fog. Patchy freezing drizzle cannot
be ruled out through the morning, but the chance is too low to
include in TAFs at this time. It appears the fog and stratus will
be stubborn to improve at most locations this morning. We may see
a period of IFR/MVFR briefly at some sites in the west (ie KLVM,
KBIL) around midday before precipitation moves in again late in
the day reducing flight categories again. Mountains will be
obscured through the period. Winds will generally be light and
variable across the region...but pick up tonight out of the N/NW.
BT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 047 041/054 033/058 035/054 033/058 034/057 035/055
    9/W +8/R    00/U    00/B    00/B    11/B    31/U
LVM 047 033/048 026/057 031/053 028/054 027/053 026/051
    8/W +5/O    00/B    00/B    01/B    11/B    40/U
HDN 052 037/052 025/060 027/056 025/058 028/058 032/056
    7/W ++/R    00/U    00/B    00/B    11/B    31/U
MLS 054 041/049 030/056 031/053 029/054 032/055 035/053
    8/W ++/R    00/U    00/B    00/B    01/U    21/B
4BQ 058 041/047 031/055 031/054 030/056 033/057 036/051
    9/W 9+/R    20/U    00/B    00/B    01/U    32/W
BHK 058 040/051 027/052 027/054 026/054 028/055 030/051
    3/W ++/R    20/U    00/B    00/B    00/B    21/N
SHR 051 032/046 025/059 028/055 026/058 028/058 030/054
    5/W +9/R    10/U    00/B    00/U    11/U    32/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Dense Fog Advisory in effect until noon MST today FOR ZONES
      29>34-36-37-42-56>58-65-66-138-141-170-173-235.
     Winter Storm Watch in effect from this evening through Monday
      evening FOR ZONE 171.
WY...Dense Fog Advisory in effect until noon MST today FOR ZONE
      199.
     Winter Storm Watch in effect from this evening through Monday
      evening FOR ZONE 198.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings