173
FXUS65 KBYZ 272031
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
131 PM MST Thu Nov 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periods of light rain/snow possible (20-40%) today into this
  evening.

- Post-Thanksgiving travel could be impacted Friday into Saturday,
  as the entire area can expect to see widespread 2-5 inches of
  snow. Be prepared for hazardous travel conditions.

- Much cooler temperatures Saturday through Monday with a 20-50%
  chance of seeing morning lows at or below zero Sunday morning.

 &&

.DISCUSSION...

Thanksgiving through Saturday...

Some localized fog remains under the stratus deck in the plains
of eastern Montana. Whatever fog does remain should lift in the
next few hours. High temps for Thanksgiving should be near
average as there is a very brief period of shortwave ridging
building in today.

Very quickly after we see height rises, some small amounts of
energy move in out ahead of the parent trough that is progged to
move through on Friday. Isolated snow showers are possible after
sunset tonight in and around the mountains of south-central
Montana. An f-gen band of snow will develop shortly after midday
oriented roughly along a line from Great Falls down through
Colstrip, MT around Midnight. This band will pivot around the
developing surface low and out of the CWA to the NNE. This could
drop a quick 1-2" of snow around Miles City before it moves out
of the area.

On the backside of this band a dry slot takes over much of the
CWA, however, there is a low chance of freezing rain/drizzle.
Model soundings are not consistent on how strong the mid-level
WAA will be at this time which poses a lot of questions. The NAM
is presently the strongest with this warm air which would limit
the potential for freezing drizzle due to the extremely shallow
saturated PBL, however, this would also also be a better setup for
freezing rain potential of any precip can sneak into the dry slot
Friday AM. Other models, such as the RAP, show a weaker warm
layer but also a dryer surface which would limit the development
of freezing drizzle. At this time the HREF probabilities show the
highest probabilities for freezing rain in NE Yellowstone Co.
right around sunrise (20%). There does exist a 10% chance of
freezing rain from Harlowton down to Hardin through the morning
through. Due to this uncertainty, I opted to leave it out of the
forecast at this time but will for sure be something we monitor
closely. While this is a very small chance, it is important to
remember that even the thinnest glaze of ice can create hazardous
travel conditions.

Late Friday morning into early afternoon the main push of snow
associated with the cold front moves in from NW to SE. Anomalously
high moisture values will allow all locations to pick up
measurable snow with the entire CWA having at least a 50% chance
of seeing 1" or greater of snowfall. After the FROPA a weak
coupled jet moves into region which should produce enough broad
scale lift to help snow continue through the afternoon and evening
of Friday and through Saturday morning in Eastern MT/WY.

Gusty northerly winds are forecast with, and just behind, the
FROPA. As these winds move through Judith Gap the accelerated
winds may gust into the upper 30s mph which could create sharply
reduced visibility in and around Harlowton during the day Friday.
These winds may also produce some blowing snow concerns around
Belfry, however, this region will likely see less in the way of
snow accumulations due to the shadow of the Beartooth/Absarokas.
As the low exists during the day Saturday, there could be some
localized visibility reductions due to blowing snow in eastern
MT/WY including I-90 & US-212. WMR

Sunday through Wednesday...

The coldest temperatures of the season will be over the area Sunday
morning, with all of southern Montana having a low to medium chance
of temperatures dropping below 0 degrees. Current forecast has lows
in the single digits below and above zero, coldest over the
northeast. Highs on Sunday in the teens to 20s can be expected for
most areas. A low dropping south and east through Idaho into Wyoming
may bring a few snow showers to the southwest mountains (20% chance)
on Sunday.

Temperatures will gradually warm back into the 30s to near 40
degrees by mid week. Winds look to increase along the gap areas
Monday night into Tuesday, ahead of another potential mid week
storm. The wave dropping in from the northwest will bring moderate
(40-70%) precipitation chances for the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe.
Northwest flow looks to keep near to below normal temperatures in
place for the second half of next week. STP

.AVIATION...

Light snow will develop over northern portions of the area
tonight, spreading south across the rest of the area through the
day on Friday, bringing MVFR to LIFR conditions and north to
northeast surface winds. There is a low chance (less than 15%)
for mixed precipitation from K3HT to KBIL to K00U from 06-15z.
Mountain obscurations will increase over the next 24 hours. STP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 027/032 010/021 002/019 007/034 024/038 023/034 020/038
    39/S    81/B    00/B    00/B    25/O    52/S    12/S
LVM 026/036 004/027 004/027 010/037 025/039 022/035 018/039
    39/S    50/B    00/B    01/B    36/S    52/S    23/S
HDN 025/033 011/021 904/019 002/036 018/038 021/033 015/039
    39/S    +2/S    10/B    00/B    26/O    63/S    23/S
MLS 024/029 012/017 904/014 902/027 017/035 016/027 010/033
    67/S    91/E    00/B    00/B    23/S    41/E    22/S
4BQ 025/035 014/019 001/021 008/034 021/038 021/030 016/036
    23/S    81/E    00/B    00/B    13/S    42/S    12/S
BHK 016/024 008/019 906/015 902/025 012/034 011/025 008/033
    48/S    91/E    00/B    00/B    12/S    31/E    22/S
SHR 020/037 007/021 901/023 003/037 017/040 018/034 012/040
    05/S    +1/B    11/B    00/B    14/O    63/S    22/S

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 11 PM this evening to
      5 AM MST Saturday FOR ZONES 29>32-63-173-228.
     Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 5 AM Friday to 11 AM
      MST Saturday FOR ZONES 33-36-37-58-138.
     Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 5 AM Friday to 5 AM
      MST Saturday FOR ZONES
      34-40-42-56-57-64>66-139-141-169-170-172-235.
WY...Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 5 AM Friday to 11 AM
      MST Saturday FOR ZONE 199.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings