532
FXUS65 KBYZ 142040
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
240 PM MDT Sat Jun 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slight risk (2/5) of severe thunderstorms today. Main threats
  are strong winds, large hail, and heavy rain. A small chance for
  tornadoes.

- There is daily potential for thunderstorms into next week; some
  severe thunderstorms are possible. Monitor the forecast.

- High elevation snowmelt will allow flows on rivers and streams
  to increase into the second half of this week. No flooding is
  expected at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Through Sunday Night...

Severe storms remain possible this afternoon and evening. The CAMs
are still all over the place with today`s storms not agreeing on
coverage or location. Some models, such as the HRRR, wants to
keep most of the supercell storms to our north and south. Other
members, such as the HRW NSSL, want to move one to three stronger
supercells right through the CWA. The parameters are all present
for this afternoon though. SB CAPE is already at 3000 J/Kg over
southern Big Horn Co. with widespread values expected to be over
2000 J/Kg by early afternoon. Most of the bulk sheer is focused
to the NW part of the CWA with values over 40kts. Although the
sheer is focused back there, the slightly lower sheer environment
near the Bighorn Mtns may be enough for some storms to develop off
the terrain. And in terms of moisture, we are certainly not
lacking in that department. Surface dewpoint values are in the
50`s+ across the region with that moisture extending up through
the mid levels. If we can develop a supercell or two today, hail
looks to be the main concern, however, all severe hazards are
possible.

Tomorrow`s pattern for severe weather seems very similar to that
of today. CAPE will return to locally 2000 J/Kg with sheer
possibly slight increasing as the trough approaches from the
west. The surface winds will also allow for moisture advection to
sufficiently re-saturate the environment. As such, the CAMs show
similar solutions to today with potentially higher coverage in
storms due to the greater forcing.

Some low lying and patchy FG development can be expected again
tonight. SFC dew points will remain high through the day Sunday.

WMR

Monday through Saturday...

An active pattern continues Monday into Tuesday as west to
southwesterly flow aloft persists over the region bringing medium
chances for showers and thunderstorms. In addition MLCAPE and 0-6
KM Shear values would support low to medium chances of a few
strong to severe thunderstorms at times, mainly during the
afternoon and evening hours. WPC clusters indicate high confidence
in a trough develop over the Pacific Northwest mid to late next
week. The trough then looks to build into the western CONUS by
next weekend bringing slightly cooler temperatures to the forecast
area. The NBM is indicating a spread of 63 (25th percentile) to
74 (75th percentile) regarding highs by next Sunday and the
larger scale pattern appears to support this.

JW

&&

.AVIATION...

18z Discussion...

Showers are starting to form near mountains at this time. Most of
the forecast area could see TS this afternoon and evening. While
exact storm location and coverage remains uncertain, there was
enough confidence to include TEMPO lines in most TAFs. The
strongest of these storm could see some hail and wind gusts as
high as 40-50kts. Additionally, some low lying areas could see
some FG development as well as points eastwards near ND. WMR
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 059/084 057/078 056/075 053/082 056/085 059/084 055/078
    34/T    75/T    66/T    10/U    00/U    12/W    32/T
LVM 052/081 051/076 049/074 048/080 049/085 050/082 047/075
    25/T    56/T    65/T    10/U    01/U    22/T    32/T
HDN 058/086 056/079 056/074 051/081 054/087 057/085 054/080
    44/T    74/T    77/T    20/U    00/U    11/U    31/U
MLS 061/087 059/079 058/075 053/082 056/087 059/084 057/080
    62/T    93/T    57/T    31/U    10/U    21/U    42/T
4BQ 060/087 059/077 057/071 053/079 057/085 059/085 057/082
    62/T    72/T    68/T    31/U    00/U    10/U    21/U
BHK 056/084 056/077 053/072 051/079 052/084 056/081 055/078
    62/T    93/T    46/T    41/U    10/U    21/U    32/T
SHR 053/086 054/077 051/070 048/078 052/086 055/085 052/082
    64/T    45/T    78/T    20/U    00/U    11/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
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