856
FXUS65 KBYZ 092055
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
255 PM MDT Mon Jun 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Smoke from Canadian wildfires will bring hazy conditions and
  reduced air quality at times over portions of the area into
  Tuesday.

- Warm and dry through Tuesday (highs in 80s to near 90F).

- There is daily potential for thunderstorms beginning late
  Tuesday and continuing through next weekend; some severe
  thunderstorms are possible.

- High elevation snowmelt will allow flows on rivers and streams
  to increase into the second half of this week. No flooding is
  expected at this time.
&&

.DISCUSSION...

Through Tuesday Tonight...

The short term will feature flat ridging. High temperatures
Tuesday will be 10-15 degrees above average in the mid to high
80s F. Low elevation locations along river valleys east of
Billings will have the best chance (20-50%) of getting over 90 F.

Starting Tuesday afternoon, easterly winds will help advect
moisture into the region. PWAT values will approach 0.75 inches
and steep low level lapse rates will help initiate convection over
the western mountains. Dewpoint values will be in the 40s F
leading to dewpoint depressions of 40 F or greater. This will
create inverted V soundings indicating wind gusts near 60 mph will
be the biggest threat with these storms. 0-6 km shear values
around 40 kts will be enough to sustain thunderstorms. Some
limiting factors will be low CAPE values around 500 J/kg and a
weak upper level wave. The Storm Prediction Center has put
locations west of Billings in a level 1 of 5 for severe storms
with general thunderstorms elsewhere. These thunderstorms will
come to an end Tuesday night.

Smoke is expected to continue being pushed to the east this
evening and overnight with reduced concentration. Tuesday morning,
high pressure to our north will bring winds out of the northeast
bringing more surface smoke into Montana. Models are currently
indicating the worst of the smoke will stay to our north.
Continued reductions in air quality are expected. Torgerson


Wednesday through Monday...

The forecast for the rest of this week into early next week
remains active with the return of daily precipitation chances.
During this time, active south-westerly flow aloft combined with
deeper atmospheric moisture will allow for scattered showers and
thunderstorms each day, mainly in the afternoon and evening. A few
strong to severe storms will be possible at times as well with
the higher dew points and good daytime heating/instability. The
first day to watch in the extend for strong to severe
thunderstorms is Wednesday when there is a Marginal risk (1/5)
across much of our area during the afternoon and evening. With
this, the main threats will be wind, hail up to quarter size, and
heavy rain. Cooler temperatures will then limit the strong
thunderstorm threat on Thursday, but increasing temperatures and
instability into the weekend may allow for the risk of severe
weather to increase over the weekend. This is something to watch
moving forward.

High temperatures will be in the 70s to 80s most days Wednesday
into early next week outside of Thursday when temperatures look to
remain in the 60s and 70s behind a shortwave trough. With these
warmer temperatures, high elevation snowmelt will increase once
again. With this, streamflows will rebound a bit, but many
streams/rivers are expected to peak below their peak flows from
earlier last week. At this time, no flooding is expected. If you
have recreational activities planned along the waterways this week
into this weekend, continue to exercise caution when near the
water. Arends
&&

.AVIATION...


Slant range visibility will continue to be reduced due to wildfire
smoke over the next 24 hours. Smoke will drift to the east today
with the greatest concentrations being east of Billings after
21Z. Surface visibility is unlikely to be impacted this evening
through Tuesday morning. Another push of smoke from the north is
expected Tuesday afternoon. How far south this plume pushes is
uncertain but the most likely locations to be impacted will be
KMLS and KBHK. Showers and thunderstorms will enter southeast
Montana after 21Z Tuesday bringing the potential for gusty and
erratic winds. Torgerson


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 060/088 058/084 058/075 053/081 058/086 058/085 056/081
    02/T    43/T    85/T    21/B    21/U    23/T    32/T
LVM 054/086 051/080 051/076 049/079 050/084 051/082 048/078
    03/T    46/T    96/T    32/T    22/T    23/T    22/T
HDN 057/088 056/086 057/074 052/083 057/087 058/087 055/082
    01/U    43/T    86/T    21/B    21/U    23/T    32/T
MLS 058/087 059/084 056/067 053/079 058/085 060/086 057/081
    00/K    44/T    67/T    41/B    41/U    43/T    52/T
4BQ 059/088 058/083 057/071 053/079 058/084 059/086 057/079
    00/U    42/T    66/T    21/B    31/U    32/T    42/T
BHK 055/084 054/078 051/061 048/074 052/079 055/082 054/078
    00/K    33/W    67/T    41/E    31/B    42/T    52/T
SHR 055/085 052/082 053/074 050/082 054/086 055/085 052/079
    03/T    44/T    75/T    22/T    22/T    23/T    23/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings