521
FXUS65 KBYZ 030039
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
639 PM MDT Wed Apr 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered rain/snow showers will continue through this evening
  over south-central Montana. With this, quick reductions in
  visibility from bursts of snow or graupel are possible.

- Clipper system brings next shot of lower elevation snow and
  colder temperatures Thursday evening into Friday morning.
  Several inches of snow are possible for the mountains and
  foothills. An inch or less across the rest of the area.

- Snow could impact the Thursday evening and Friday morning
  commutes, mainly around the southern foothills.

- High confidence of building high pressure this weekend; expect
  warmer and dry conditions into next week.

&&

.UPDATE...

Remaining winter weather highlites were allowed to expire at the
top of the hour. Snow showers will continue in many areas through
late tonight, but widespread significant accumulations and impacts
are not expected. There have been a few thunderstorm reports over
central areas, including near Billings this evening. In addition
to thunder and isolated lightning, expect brief moderate
rain/snow showers and maybe some pea size hail/grauple with this
activity. Instability decreases pretty quickly by 9pm so expect
the thunderstorm potential to dissipate for the late evening
hours. Made a quick update to the forecast this evening to come in
line with latest model trends. Expanded the area for potential
fog from midnight through mid morning Thursday to encompass most
lower elevation locations. Not thinking everyone will see fog but
river and stream valleys along with other low lying areas may
given the recent precipitation and weaker overnight winds.

Another Spring system will impact the area by late Thursday
afternoon and persist into Friday morning. Upslope snow associated
with this system will likely need some winter weather highlites
from the midnight crew, so stay tuned. Latest snowfall thinking is
available on our website via the weather story at the top, or
clicking the map a bit further down for a local forecast. Chambers

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Through Friday night...

Scattered rain/snow showers will continue over south-central
Montana into the evening today before coming to an end tonight.
Due to modest instability and steeper low to mid level lapse rates
on the order of 6 to 9 C/km, some of the showers today could be
more intense with quick bursts of snow or graupel and breezy winds
(20 to 35 mph). This combination could create hazardous travel
conditions, so if you are traveling this afternoon and evening,
stay alert for rapidly changing conditions. A rumble of thunder or
two are even possible during this time. With the scattered nature
of the showers today, additional precipitation amounts will be
spotty. An additional 0.10 inches of liquid precipitation, or a
quick inch of wet snow on grassy surfaces, is possible under the
heavier showers. Because of the scattered nature of the
precipitation and surface temperatures being above freezing across
much of the area, the winter weather highlights that were in
effect over the lower elevations have been expired and cancelled.
The winter weather highlights in the mountains remain in good
shape and are set to drop off at 6pm MDT.

After a break in the precipitation tonight into Thursday morning,
another shortwave and associated cold front are expected to drop
through the region Thursday afternoon and evening. This will bring
precipitation and breezy northerly winds back to the region
Thursday afternoon into early Friday morning. At this time, the
chance of precipitation is moderate to high across the area (60 to
90 percent chance). The best chance of precipitation is greatest
over the mountains and foothills south of Billings as
northeasterly upslope winds combine with steeper lapse rates to
enhance the precipitation in these areas. While all snow is expect
in the mountains with this next event, a rain/snow mix
transitioning over to snow Thursday evening is expected over the
lower elevations. Because this next system will bring colder air
over the region than the current one, the transition of rain to
snow is a bit more certain at this time. Total snow accumulations
remain a bit uncertain though. Currently, up to an inch or two of
snow are forecast for the lower elevations, with several inches of
snow in the mountains and foothills. The probability for 3 or
more inches of snow is around 60 to 80 percent for the foothills
of the Beartooth Mountains. Additional winter highlights remain
possible with this system.

Patchy fog is possible tonight across the area, especially in far
south-eastern Montana. Stay aware for quick reductions in
visibility if traveling early Thursday morning. High temperatures
are forecast to be in the upper 30s to lower 50s Thursday and 30s
to 40s Friday behind the cold front. Arends


Saturday night through Wednesday...

Saturday will be a transition day as the trough bringing
precipitation Friday moves of to the east, and a high amplitude
upper level ridge moves in from the west. This high amplitude
ridge will begin to breakdown as an upper level trough over the
Pacific Northwest pushes it out of the region. Deterministic
models are showing the potential for a wave to move through during
this breakdown bringing light precipitation chances to the region
Tuesday. NBM is currently giving much of Southeast Montana a
10-20% chance for greater than 0.1 inches of precipitation.

There is high ensemble confidence that the ridge breakdown will
be followed by another building ridge for the middle of next week.
This adds up to a long term featuring warm and dry conditions.
Temperatures Saturday will be in the 40s and 50s F, increasing
into the 50s and 60s F Sunday as ridging takes over. High
temperatures will mostly be in the 60s F for the workweek.
Torgerson



&&

.AVIATION...

Precipitation chances will come to an end this evening. Cloud
ceilings under 5,000 ft will persist through tomorrow. Mountains
will likely be obscured during this period. Precipitation chances
will enter the region after 18Z tomorrow bringing rain during the
day changing over to snow during the evening and overnight.
Torgerson


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 030/050 026/042 024/054 033/063 035/067 040/065 041/068
    46/T    82/J    00/U    00/U    00/U    12/R    21/B
LVM 026/046 023/040 021/052 031/059 035/063 038/059 038/063
    36/W    81/B    00/U    00/U    01/U    22/R    21/N
HDN 028/051 025/041 021/054 030/062 031/067 037/066 039/068
    56/T    82/J    00/U    00/B    00/U    12/R    22/R
MLS 027/049 025/040 021/052 030/058 029/063 035/065 040/067
    15/W    71/B    00/U    00/B    00/U    11/B    11/U
4BQ 026/050 027/039 020/050 030/056 028/062 035/064 040/065
    13/W    82/J    00/U    00/B    00/U    11/B    21/U
BHK 022/049 023/037 017/048 027/053 024/054 029/060 035/063
    03/W    72/J    10/U    00/B    00/U    01/U    11/N
SHR 023/048 022/037 015/049 026/058 028/063 033/062 034/065
    43/W    85/J    10/U    00/B    00/U    12/R    22/R

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings