695
FXUS62 KCAE 162353
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
753 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A reinforcing dry cold front has moved through the area,
bringing slightly cooler temperatures into Friday. Another front
is forecast to approach late in the weekend, bringing the next
chance for rainfall along with it.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Key message(s):

- Calm, cool and clear tonight.

High pressure remains in place over the eastern CONUS with
favorable radiational cooling conditions tonight. As a result,
coolest temperatures of the season expected with much of the
area dropping into the mid to upper 40s. While overall the
airmass is dry, it is a favorable setup for fog to develop
along area rivers and lakes near sunrise.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- Continued cool and dry weather on Friday.

- Another chilly overnight Friday night.

- More dry weather, but with warmer temperatures Saturday.

Friday and Friday Night: Friday continues to look like a cooler
day as high pressure begins to center overhead with northeast
flow that eventually becomes light and variable through the day.
Temperatures should reach the low to mid 70s under mostly sunny
skies during the afternoon before some cirrus may pass during
the evening and overnight as moisture aloft increase. These
cirrus are not expected to limit radiational cooling conditions
much overnight and with near ideal conditions in place again,
chilly lows into the mid to upper 40s will be possible.

Saturday and Saturday Night: A shortwave ridge moves overhead
Saturday with surface high pressure weakly hanging on as a deep
trough digs into the central CONUS, turning flow out of the
south to southwest and slowly increasing moisture. This warm
flow along with strong insolation should allow temperatures to
reach the upper 70s to near 80 during the afternoon with dry
conditions. Dry conditions continue overnight and into Sunday,
but moisture continues to slowly increase ahead of a surface
cold front that will be working eastward through the Tennessee
Valley overnight and into Sunday. With increasing moisture,
overnight lows should be a bit warmer, in the low to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key message(s):

- Cold front approaches Sunday, moving out of the area by
  Sunday night.

- This front is expected to bring the next chance of rain as it
  moves through.

- Mostly dry through the mid week.

The surface cold front is expected to be west of the FA to
start Sunday, before moving into the area sometime between the
late morning and the early evening. Timing differences in the
recent deterministic models continue with the ECMWF being the
faster solution for the frontal passage (late morning into early
afternoon) and the GFS/NAM being a bit later (late afternoon to
early evening). Also, the ECMWF, its ensemble, and the ECMWF AI
depict a more amplified upper trough reaching near the FA while
the GFS/GEFS/NAM have a more compact trough that keeps stronger
dynamics to our north. Overall, there is enough of a signal to
maintain slight chance to chance PoP`s Sunday, but uncertainty
remains in the evolution of the aforementioned features and thus
coverage/intensity of any showers or storms. The ECMWF solution
would favor greater coverage of showers and possibly some
storms while the GFS solution trends towards lower coverage of
showers and a lesser chance for any thunderstorms. One area of
higher confidence is that the front will clear the region by
Sunday night with drier air filtering in behind it as surface
high pressure fills in.

The early week sees surface high pressure work back in with a
dry airmass and temperatures that are initially slightly below
normal Monday and then closer to normal Tuesday. Another compact
trough looks to move into the Great Lakes region late Tuesday
and into Wednesday morning, possibly driving another cold front
into the region overnight, but mostly dry conditions seem more
likely than not at this point in time. Cool/dry air then settles
back in Wednesday with high temperatures expected to be just
below normal, but overnight lows may once again be a bit chilly.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Predominantly VFR conditions expected.

High pressure remains in control over the area with light winds
and clear skies expected to persist over the terminals through
the next 24 hours. While overall, fog potential is limited, the
setup does favor potential river fog developing along the
Savannah River and impacting AGS briefly. Have included TEMPO
MVFR visibilities as a result. There is a lower potential for
visibility restrictions at OGB as well near sunrise but
confidence is more limited. After sunrise, expect light and
variable winds to continue and any fog that does develop will
quickly mix out.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...The next chance for widespread
restrictions will be Sunday morning ahead of a front which will
move across the Southeast.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$