


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
695 FXUS62 KCAE 162353 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 753 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A reinforcing dry cold front has moved through the area, bringing slightly cooler temperatures into Friday. Another front is forecast to approach late in the weekend, bringing the next chance for rainfall along with it. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... Key message(s): - Calm, cool and clear tonight. High pressure remains in place over the eastern CONUS with favorable radiational cooling conditions tonight. As a result, coolest temperatures of the season expected with much of the area dropping into the mid to upper 40s. While overall the airmass is dry, it is a favorable setup for fog to develop along area rivers and lakes near sunrise. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Key message(s): - Continued cool and dry weather on Friday. - Another chilly overnight Friday night. - More dry weather, but with warmer temperatures Saturday. Friday and Friday Night: Friday continues to look like a cooler day as high pressure begins to center overhead with northeast flow that eventually becomes light and variable through the day. Temperatures should reach the low to mid 70s under mostly sunny skies during the afternoon before some cirrus may pass during the evening and overnight as moisture aloft increase. These cirrus are not expected to limit radiational cooling conditions much overnight and with near ideal conditions in place again, chilly lows into the mid to upper 40s will be possible. Saturday and Saturday Night: A shortwave ridge moves overhead Saturday with surface high pressure weakly hanging on as a deep trough digs into the central CONUS, turning flow out of the south to southwest and slowly increasing moisture. This warm flow along with strong insolation should allow temperatures to reach the upper 70s to near 80 during the afternoon with dry conditions. Dry conditions continue overnight and into Sunday, but moisture continues to slowly increase ahead of a surface cold front that will be working eastward through the Tennessee Valley overnight and into Sunday. With increasing moisture, overnight lows should be a bit warmer, in the low to mid 50s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Key message(s): - Cold front approaches Sunday, moving out of the area by Sunday night. - This front is expected to bring the next chance of rain as it moves through. - Mostly dry through the mid week. The surface cold front is expected to be west of the FA to start Sunday, before moving into the area sometime between the late morning and the early evening. Timing differences in the recent deterministic models continue with the ECMWF being the faster solution for the frontal passage (late morning into early afternoon) and the GFS/NAM being a bit later (late afternoon to early evening). Also, the ECMWF, its ensemble, and the ECMWF AI depict a more amplified upper trough reaching near the FA while the GFS/GEFS/NAM have a more compact trough that keeps stronger dynamics to our north. Overall, there is enough of a signal to maintain slight chance to chance PoP`s Sunday, but uncertainty remains in the evolution of the aforementioned features and thus coverage/intensity of any showers or storms. The ECMWF solution would favor greater coverage of showers and possibly some storms while the GFS solution trends towards lower coverage of showers and a lesser chance for any thunderstorms. One area of higher confidence is that the front will clear the region by Sunday night with drier air filtering in behind it as surface high pressure fills in. The early week sees surface high pressure work back in with a dry airmass and temperatures that are initially slightly below normal Monday and then closer to normal Tuesday. Another compact trough looks to move into the Great Lakes region late Tuesday and into Wednesday morning, possibly driving another cold front into the region overnight, but mostly dry conditions seem more likely than not at this point in time. Cool/dry air then settles back in Wednesday with high temperatures expected to be just below normal, but overnight lows may once again be a bit chilly. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Predominantly VFR conditions expected. High pressure remains in control over the area with light winds and clear skies expected to persist over the terminals through the next 24 hours. While overall, fog potential is limited, the setup does favor potential river fog developing along the Savannah River and impacting AGS briefly. Have included TEMPO MVFR visibilities as a result. There is a lower potential for visibility restrictions at OGB as well near sunrise but confidence is more limited. After sunrise, expect light and variable winds to continue and any fog that does develop will quickly mix out. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...The next chance for widespread restrictions will be Sunday morning ahead of a front which will move across the Southeast. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$