Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
897 FXUS62 KCAE 191751 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 151 PM EDT Wed Aug 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation discussion updated for 18z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1. Increasing chances for widespread rain Friday and Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Increasing chances for widespread rain Friday and Saturday. Moisture continues to remain relatively low at least in the north and western portion of the forecast, pooling ahead of a weak boundary with PWATs around 2 inches generally south of I-20. While isolated storms remains possible in the south and eastern portions of the area this afternoon, convection will once again be limited. Latest HREF indicates moisture will marginally increase Thursday with additional chances for isolated afternoon storms. Then global ensembles favor a more amplified pattern for Friday and Saturday as a shortwave digs into the Great Lakes region. This favors deep SW flow over the Southeast on Friday and Saturday with a surface low developing along a baroclinic zone near the forecast area. Enhanced surface convergence and increasing PWAT values to near or above 2 inches favors widespread showers and thunderstorms Friday and Saturday. With higher than normal deep layer shear for the season, and a conditionally unstable air mass, organized storms will be possible. Steep lapse rates and height falls could support damaging winds and small hail on Friday afternoon, especially in the eastern Midlands where moisture will be deeper. As the upper trough axis slowly moves through the area Saturday, precipitation will taper off from west to east with drier moving into the area. Otherwise, it will be warmer than normal today and Thursday but with drier air over the region and weaker ridging no heat thresholds should be met. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon through Thursday but any damaging wind threat will be isolated as typical for the season. Cooler weather is likely next week with temperatures closer to normal. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions generally expected trough the TAF period. There is a low chance for patchy fog/stratus early Thursday morning. Winds remain fairly light and variable behind the frontal boundary this afternoon as a SCT cumulus deck has developed. There remains the chance a isolated shower or storm develops in the coming hours, but confidence is too low in impacts at any one terminal to add mention of this in the TAF. Tonight light and variable to calm winds continue with FEW passing cirrus expected. Light low level flow becoming more southeasterly could bring higher moisture into early Thursday morning, thus forecast soundings and the latest HRRR runs depict the potential for patchy fog. Confidence in restrictions at the terminals is low at the moment, but OGB would have the best chance as seen in LAMP/NBM guidance. Continuing through the morning and into the afternoon Thursday, winds are expected to stay light, but now out of the southeast to south. Greater coverage of convection is possible just after this TAF period. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Isolated thunderstorms possible late Thursday afternoon into the evening but rain chances increase Friday and Saturday with scattered to widespread convection expected. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...96 AVIATION...DH