425
FXUS62 KCAE 291739
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
139 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Lowered dewpoints for this afternoon. Otherwise, minimal
changes. Aviation discussion updated for 18z TAFs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1. Dry conditions with above normal temperatures are expected
  through Friday.

- 2. Rain chances may enter late in the week through this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Dry conditions with above normal temperatures
are expected through Friday.

The forecast remains largely unchanged as upper ridging builds
across the Southeast over the next 24 hours. At the surface,
high pressure is expected to shift offshore through the middle
of the week, allowing for a gradual return of southerly flow and
increasing moisture across the Carolinas by Thursday and
Friday. Overall, this pattern will support daily high
temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s through at least
Friday, with mostly dry conditions continuing. It is worth
noting that moisture will continue building through the week,
but deeper advection off the Gulf is not expected until this
weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Rain chances may enter late in the week through
this weekend.

There remains some uncertainty regarding how quickly a broad
trough shifts into the Northeast later this week. At the
surface, a cold front will approach the region and could stall
nearby before a shortwave eventually pushes the front through by
early next week. Long range guidance has continued to trend
toward a slower arrival of the front, with the global
deterministic models now holding off on widespread rainfall
until later on Saturday or even Sunday. In the meantime,
isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible
starting Friday and into the weekend as LREF probabilities for
PWATs greater than 2" reach 60-70% amid subtle forcing. With all
that being said, the exact timing this weekend still remains
fuzzy regarding the trough, but increasing rain chances should
bring temperatures back closer to normal. Ensemble guidance also
hints at additional rain chances continuing into early next
week, potentially brining another period of damp, cloudy, and
cool conditions to the FA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the 24hr TAF period.

High pressure continues to reside over the region with a dry air
mass in place and mostly clear skies, with some fair weather
cumulus observed on satellite north of CAE and CUB this
afternoon. However, some increase in moisture is expected
today and tonight, and guidance shows patchy river valley fog
developing Wednesday morning south of I-20, most favoring
potential for restrictions at AGS and OGB. Have added TEMPOs
for the potential for MVFR conditions between 09z and 13z at
these sites. Patchy ground fog cannot be ruled out other
terminals Wednesday morning, but should be shallow enough to
prevent the development of restrictions. Light and variable
winds around 3-5 knots, prevailing southeasterly at times, is
expected this afternoon, then falling to calm at times tonight.
Light and variable winds around 3-5 kts, becoming prevailing
easterly, are expected by Wednesday morning into the afternoon.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Increasing chances of predawn
stratus/fog later this week with increasing low level moisture.
Increasing chances of precipitation this weekend.


&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ND
AVIATION...SF