785
FXUS62 KCAE 241131
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
631 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm weather continues into mid-week with a chance for showers
and perhaps a few thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday. A
very dry and much colder air mass moves in behind the front for
the remainder of Thanksgiving week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- Patchy dense fog this morning, lifting by 10 AM

With surface high pressure drifting offshore and easterly,
onshore flow developing we will see stratus and fog over parts
of the Lowcountry up in to the southern Midlands and CSRA.
Visibility has dropped below one half a mile at several
locations and may cause hazardous weather impacting the morning
commute. Conditions will improve through the early morning as
fog and stratus lift.

With dry high pressure at the surface and ridging overhead the
weather will remain quiet with no rain through the near term.
Forecast highs will range from the upper 60s to mid-70s. Shallow
moisture continues to increase overnight keeping lows in the
mid-40s to lower 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- Scattered showers expected Tuesday and Wednesday as a front
  moves through the region.

The cutoff low in the southwestern CONUS will eject across the
central US, driving a strong low pressure development into the Great
Lakes Tuesday and Wednesday. This ejecting low will amplify the
pattern with deep ridging developing for our area ahead of the
associated surface front. Broad southwesterly flow Tuesday will
steadily increase PWAT`s and isentropic lift over the area and with
temps pushing into the mid-upper 70`s, some scattered showers are
expected. The strongest height falls, upslope flow, and isentropic
lift however will pull northwest of our area in the mountains and
Upstate. So total precip is expected to be light Tuesday with
guidance now fairly consistent in showing a general 0.1"-0.25"; some
very weak instability will develop in the afternoon so a couple
light thunderstorms are possible and could locally increase rain
totals, especially in the western Midlands. As we move into
Wednesday, the surface front will be approaching the area and a
swath of strongest moisture advection will push through with PWAT`s
over 1.25"; some a period of elevated shower activity is likely
Wednesday morning but still QPF totals less than 0.5" are
expected. Precip chances then steadily decrease throughout
Wednesday into the evening as the surface front pushes through,
bringing notable dry advection into Thanksgiving.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key message(s):

- A cold and extremely dry airmass will push into the region
  Thursday through Saturday.

Behind the front from Wednesday, an arctic airmass will dive down
into region with strong northwesterly flow and well below average
temps and dew points filling in. This will effectively arrive in two
fronts, the initial on Thursday and a reinforcing front Friday.
NAEFS and EC EFI show this airmass well with 5th percentile or
lower for PWAT`s, temps, and heights Thursday through Saturday.
This will equate to high and low temps 10-15 degrees below
average along with dew points falling to the lowest of the
autumn so far. Ridging will build back in and temps start to
moderate by late next weekend ahead of the next rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Dense fog to impact OGB and AGS this morning with VFR visibility
returning by 15Z.

Surface high pressure continues to shift offshore this morning
promoting easterly flow across southern SC and eastern GA. Fog
and stratus have developed near the coast and moved into the
southern Midlands and CSRA. Expect periods of IFR/LIFR ceilings
and vsbys at OGB and AGS. DNL may also experience restrictions
but confidence is lower due to the siting of the terminal.
Visibility will return to VFR by 15Z. Today, expect light east
winds from 5 to 7 knots through the afternoon becoming calm
around sunset. A shortwave lifts north of the area tonight but
rain remains unlikely.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...The next chance of widespread
restrictions will be late Tuesday into early Thursday morning
as deep moisture returns to the area ahead of a front.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for SCZ030-035-
     041-135-136.
GA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for GAZ077.

&&

$$