Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
017 FXUS62 KCAE 130236 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 1036 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Gradual improvement from west to east is expected tonight into Monday as the coastal low near the North Carolina-South Carolina border moves away from the region and high pressure brings in drier air. High pressure is expected to prevail through the upcoming work week, with dry weather and temperatures within a few degrees of normal. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/... Key message(s): - Rain tapers off tonight with improving conditions from west to east. The coastal low is drifting westward tonight and is currently located along the coast between Myrtle Beach and Wilmington. Rain across the eastern Midlands has decreased in intensity but the chance of rain will continue for much of the overnight as the low continues west towards the FA and eventually reverses course and heads back east towards daybreak. Conditions should gradually improve from west to east as the night goes on. Temperatures at daybreak should range from the mid-50s to around 60 degrees, warmest in the east. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Key message(s): - Drying out with sunshine returning and warmer temperatures. The coupled upper trough and coastal low will continue to pull away from the region early Monday, bringing drier air back in the region. An upper ridge is progged to build across the central CONUS, slowly working eastward with surface high pressure starting to build in to the FA behind the coastal low. This should bring a pleasant day with mostly clear skies (outside of some morning cloudiness in the eastern Midlands and Pee Dee) and temperatures that warm to near average in the mid to upper 70s. Tuesday will see much of the same as the upper ridge inches a bit closer. Another afternoon with seasonal temperatures and dry conditions is expected. Overnight each night, lows are expected to fall into the mid 50s, possibly into the low 50s as strong radiational cooling conditions set up. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Key message(s): - Seasonable temperatures and dry weather through the mid to late week. Wednesday through Friday continues with dry weather as the upper ridge in the central CONUS pushes overhead due to a amplified trough moving into the western US. A dry front is expected to pass sometime late Wednesday, ushering in a shot of even drier air for Thursday and Friday. Afternoon high temperatures should remain near normal to just below normal each day but overnight lows Thursday could be some of the coolest we have seen yet this fall as there is little indication for a hindrance to strong radiational cooling conditions, coupled with a cooler/drier air mass setting in behind the front. The weekend will see a more amplified pattern aloft as the deep trough digs into the Midwest/Great Lakes region, allowing moisture to slowly increase in the FA as flow becomes more southerly. Discrepancy exists between deterministic global models on how amplified the trough will be and the exact placement of an upper low and thus while there is a chance PoP`s increase toward the end of the weekend, confidence in this is low at the moment. && .AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Improving conditions early Monday morning followed by VFR conditions. Lingering rain over the region will continue to cause periods of MVFR visibilities at CAE/CUB and OGB through the evening. The coastal low will lift out of the forecast area tonight. Despite rainfall moving out of the region, there may be ceiling restrictions or fog early Monday morning with lingering moisture at the low levels. Winds will generally remain out of the N/NE through the 24 hour period from 4 to 9 kts. VFR conditions are likely through Monday as skies clear and drier after filters into the region. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR likely through the rest of the week. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...