039
FXUS62 KCAE 250012
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
712 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm weather continues into mid-week with a chance for showers
on Tuesday and Wednesday. A very dry and much colder air mass
moves in behind the front for the remainder of Thanksgiving
week. Temperatures return to seasonal values late in the weekend
but the chance of rain also returns.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Key message(s):

- Mild temperatures to continue.

A strengthening pressure gradient is forecast to develop across
the area tonight as a strong surface low across the central US
organizes and pushes eastward. While moisture will be slow to
increase at the surface, dewpoints in the 40s along with
elevated surface wind should aid in keeping low temps in the
upper 40s to low 50s for most. Not a whole lot else to say
otherwise with this forecast. Fog is unlikely given strong low-
level jet in place along with increasing high clouds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- Warmer with a chance of showers on Tuesday.

- Breezy and continued warm Wednesday ahead of a cold front.
  Rain chances are highest along and ahead of the boundary
  during the first half of the day.

- Cold and dry air filters in Wednesday night.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night: A shortwave trough will pass to the
north on Tuesday with broad southwesterly flow aloft as a more
potent trough takes shape over the Central CONUS. At the
surface, winds will shift to a southerly direction as high
pressure continues to move to the east. A few showers cannot be
ruled out during the daytime hours, mainly across the
northwestern counties which will be closer to the upper level
support. Modest isentropic lift and instability could also
trigger a few showers or a rumble of thunder across the
remainder of the FA but the chance is lower. It`ll be partly to
mostly cloudy and warmer with forecast highs in the lower 70s to
near 80 degrees. Showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of
the approaching cold front move into the region Tuesday night,
with the best chance for rain along and north/west of I-20.
There are timing differences between the CAMs, with the HRRR
being much faster than the other guidance. This means that the
chance of rain may end up higher and may arrive earlier than
currently depicted if the HRRR solution is more accurate.
Temperatures don`t fall too much due to clouds and WAA with lows
in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night: Troughing sets up across the
eastern two-thirds of the CONUS on Wednesday. This will help to
push a cold front through the FA with southwest winds shifting
west towards evening and then northwest at night. The winds
could be breezy at times, especially during the day when values
may approach Lake Wind Advisory criteria. The frontal passage
will also be accompanied by showers and perhaps a thunderstorm
or two depending on the timing of the boundary. Any
precipitation should quickly exit the FA Wednesday afternoon
with skies clearing from northwest to southeast. Daytime
temperatures should be warm once again despite the clouds and
rain but will be dependent on the timing of the cold front.
Current highs range from the lower 70s in the northwest to the
upper 70s in the southeast. Clearing skies and gradually
decreasing winds will allow temperatures to drop quickly at
night with forecast lows in the mid-30s to lower 40s, coldest
once again in the northwestern CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key message(s):

- A cold and very dry airmass will push into the region
  Thursday through Saturday.

- Temperature begin to recover late this weekend with increasing
  rain chances.

An arctic air mass moves in behind the front on Wednesday
resulting in much colder and drier weather across the FA for
Thanksgiving, likely lasting through Saturday. Expect well below
normal temperatures with widespread subfreezing overnight lows
Thursday night, and especially Friday night when the surface
high will likely be overhead. High pressure moves to the east
on Saturday allowing for increasing moisture and warm air
advection. While models diverge on the Synoptic pattern near the
end of the extended, warmer and wetter conditions are favored
early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR Conditions Expected for the next 24 hours.

High clouds passing over the terminals currently with winds
aloft strengthening out of the southeast over the next several
hours. This will lead to increasing low level moisture with sct-
bkn clouds around 5kft. Guidance overall has trended away from
restrictions Tuesday morning but there is a low chance for brief
MVFR ceilings at the Augusta terminals. Otherwise, VFR
conditions are expected. Winds will increase after sunrise and
shift from SE to SW with gusts up to 20 knots possible into the
afternoon.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...The next chance of widespread
restrictions will be late Tuesday into Wednesday as deep
moisture returns to the area ahead of a front.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$