522
FXUS62 KCAE 241700
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1200 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm weather continues into mid-week with a chance for showers
on Tuesday and Wednesday. A very dry and much colder air mass
moves in behind the front for the remainder of Thanksgiving
week. Temperatures return to seasonal values late in the weekend
but the chance of rain also returns.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key message(s):
- Mild temperatures to continue.

A surge of drier air has finally been able to clear out the
majority of the morning fog/stratus across portions of the CSRA.
Much of the remainder of the afternoon will now see mostly sunny
skies prevailing over the entire forecast area. Easterly winds
will continue to keep the drier air moving in over the region at
least into the early overnight hours. Afternoon temperature
remain on the mild side, with readings topping out once again in
the upper 60s over the north, and the middle 70s across the
southern counties.

Going into tonight, some high level cloudiness will move through
the night. In the low levels, winds will begin to turn more out
of the southeast late tonight and towards morning, which will
begin to bring Atlantic moisture back inland. Isentropic and
orographic lift should bring some low clouds across the area
late tonight, with greatest coverage possibly over the western
half of the forecast area towards morning. Do not expect any
rain activity overnight, but some light showers may be just off
to the west of the forecast area, along with a few showers
possible near the coast by sunrise. Overnight lows back into
the upper 40s to the lower 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

Key message(s):

- Warmer with a chance of showers on Tuesday.

- Breezy and continued warm Wednesday ahead of a cold front.
  Rain chances are highest along and ahead of the boundary
  during the first half of the day.

- Cold and dry air filters in Wednesday night.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night: A shortwave trough will pass to the
north on Tuesday with broad southwesterly flow aloft as a more
potent trough takes shape over the Central CONUS. At the
surface, winds will shift to a southerly direction as high
pressure continues to move to the east. A few showers cannot be
ruled out during the daytime hours, mainly across the
northwestern counties which will be closer to the upper level
support. Modest isentropic lift and instability could also
trigger a few showers or a rumble of thunder across the
remainder of the FA but the chance is lower. It`ll be partly to
mostly cloudy and warmer with forecast highs in the lower 70s to
near 80 degrees. Showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of
the approaching cold front move into the region Tuesday night,
with the best chance for rain along and north/west of I-20.
There are timing differences between the CAMs, with the HRRR
being much faster than the other guidance. This means that the
chance of rain may end up higher and may arrive earlier than
currently depicted if the HRRR solution is more accurate.
Temperatures don`t fall too much due to clouds and WAA with lows
in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night: Troughing sets up across the
eastern two-thirds of the CONUS on Wednesday. This will help to
push a cold front through the FA with southwest winds shifting
west towards evening and then northwest at night. The winds
could be breezy at times, especially during the day when values
may approach Lake Wind Advisory criteria. The frontal passage
will also be accompanied by showers and perhaps a thunderstorm
or two depending on the timing of the boundary. Any
precipitation should quickly exit the FA Wednesday afternoon
with skies clearing from northwest to southeast. Daytime
temperatures should be warm once again despite the clouds and
rain but will be dependent on the timing of the cold front.
Current highs range from the lower 70s in the northwest to the
upper 70s in the southeast. Clearing skies and gradually
decreasing winds will allow temperatures to drop quickly at
night with forecast lows in the mid-30s to lower 40s, coldest
once again in the northwestern CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Key message(s):

- A cold and very dry airmass will push into the region
  Thursday through Saturday.

- Temperature begin to recover late this weekend with increasing
  rain chances.

An arctic air mass moves in behind the front on Wednesday
resulting in much colder and drier weather across the FA for
Thanksgiving, likely lasting through Saturday. Expect well below
normal temperatures with widespread subfreezing overnight lows
Thursday night, and especially Friday night when the surface
high will likely be overhead. High pressure moves to the east
on Saturday allowing for increasing moisture and warm air
advection. While models diverge on the Synoptic pattern near the
end of the extended, warmer and wetter conditions are favored
early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions the next 24 hours.

All taf sites restriction free to start off the period. A few
cirrus clouds are expected through the afternoon. With drier air
moving in on east/northeasterly winds, should only see a few
cumulus around 5 kft late in the afternoon. Winds becoming light
by sunset. Off the surface, winds will turn more out of the
southeast, bringing Atlantic moisture back inland and across the
area by morning. Deterministic guidance is showing a stratus
field developing around 5 kft by 08z at most sites, and for the
most part have trended tafs at all sites that direction around
that timeframe. Slightly deeper moisture may impact ags/dnl,
with ceilings towards 12z dropping into upper end of mvfr there.
With stratus development, do not anticipate any widespread fog
at this time tonight. Through the day on Tuesday, shower
activity will be moving in from the west, but is not expected to
impact any terminals through 18z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...The next chance of widespread
restrictions will be late Tuesday into early Thursday morning as
deep moisture returns to the area ahead of a front.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$