200
FXUS61 KCAR 272349
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
749 PM EDT Sun Sep 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
750pm update...Expired High Surf Advisory and Gale Warnings

Update for 00z aviation discussion

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A Noreaster will continue to impact at least Downeast Maine
into Tuesday AM bringing breezy winds, and periods of rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A Noreaster will continue to impact at least
Downeast Maine into Tuesday AM bringing breezy winds and
periods of rain.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
The center of low associated with this Noreaster continues to
drift NW this afternoon now located along the southern New
Jersey coast. A large occlusion is wrapped up just south of Cape
Cod with a triple point near Georges Bank. Satellite imagery is
showing moisture advecting north in Maine from the the Atlantic
which extends back to the Bahamas. This has increased PWATs
over Downeast Maine into the 175-200 percent of normal range for
late September. At the same time a strong 1028mb high pressure
system sits over Central Quebec with a 584dam 500mb ridge. The
placement of the ridge and North Atlantic low pressure near
Greenland is preventing this Noreaster from moving and nearly
cutoff from the flow.

Throughout this afternoon expect the Noreaster low pressure to
drift closer to NYC as surface high drifts into the Maritimes.
This will result in lessening precip chances across the CWA
through this afternoon. Tonight, the 500mb ridge will fold over
and shift out over the North Atlantic which will allow the
upper level low of this Noreaster to lift back into the mid
latitude westerlies. This will begin to push the surface low
northward into Southern New England as it slowly begins to
weaken. The northerly movement will allow for increasing POPs
across the entire CWA late tonight into Monday and lasting into
Tuesday with periods of rain expected. Overall, the wind field
will weaken as the sfc low pressure lifts N then NE across the
Gulf of Maine. Then by Tuesday afternoon the system will be
exiting east across Nova Scotia. Here is what to expect for the
various components of the storm:

Periods of Rain...Lingering rain chances Downeast and across the
Bangor region this afternoon and early evening, then areawide
increasing POPs tonight lasting into Tuesday AM. Although there
remains significant uncertainty how many periods of rain
develop, the overall trend for slightly lower values has
persisted into this afternoon. However, with PWATs areawide
eventually up to around 190 percent of normal we can expect some
beneficial rainfall. The best beneficial rainfall will be
across the Bangor Region to far Southern Aroostook County and
points southward to the Downeast coast. It is here that 0.6-1
inch is expected for totals, north of here significant
uncertainty exists due to dry air, totals in northern areas
generally 0.1-0.3 inch. We do not expect any flooding concerns
anywhere given the D1-D3 drought conditions. In fact nearly all
of the rainfall will likely be absorbed into the near surface
ground and very unlikely any water gets into the rivers and
streams. Rivers and streams are currently in the 1-15th
percentile range with many approaching top 5 lowest flows on
record.

Breezy Winds...Winds from the northeast will be the gustiest
through Monday AM and begin to weaken into the afternoon and
Monday night. Winds will be stronger the further south you go
but will top out around 25 mph across Bangor and the Downeast
with the system remaining so far south of the CWA. Isolated
higher gusts possible especially near the Downeast coastline
exposed to the NE winds across the open waters. We don`t
anticipate impacts from the wind other than maybe a very few
isolated power outages Downeast.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Tonight...VFR cigs Aroostook terminals with BGR/BHB becoming
MVFR late. Light shra developing after 06z at BHB/BGR. NE winds
5-15kt with gusts up to 20kt possible at BHB and BGR.

Monday...Mainly VFR for Aroostook terminals, though cannot rule
out a brief MVFR cig late in the afternoon. MVFR becoming IFR
at BGR and BHB. Light showers at Downeast terminals with VCSH
developing late day at northern Aroostook terminals. NE winds
5-15kt with gusts 15-20kts at Downeast terminals, 5-15kts at
Aroostook terminals.

Monday Night...Generally MVFR north with potential for IFR cigs.
IFR likely south. Areawide -RA likely. NE wind 5-10 kts.

Tuesday...MVFR/IFR early with -RA becoming MVFR/VFR in the
afternoon. N-NNE winds 5-15kt.

Tuesday night to Friday...VFR/MVFR possible Friday with rain
showers at Northern terminals. Light and variable winds turning
SW at around 10kts by Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Intra-Coastal Waters...A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect
through 2PM Monday. NE winds 15-25kt with gusts up to 30kt and
long period (9-10sec) south-southeast swells 4-7ft. Winds/seas
expected to fall below SCA criteria Monday afternoon. Periods
of rain from today through Tuesday AM may reduce vsby to 3nm at
times. Winds expected to be less than 10kt from Tuesday PM into
Thursday with potential gusts to 20kt returning Friday. Seas
generally 1-3ft Wed-Fri.

Coastal Waters out to 25nm...On the Coastal Ocean Waters
a Small Craft Advisory is in effect until 06z Tuesday for seas. Periods
of rain from today through Tuesday AM may reduce vsby to 3nm at
times. Expecting winds/seas to fall below SCA criteria late
Monday night into early Tuesday AM. Winds generally less than
15kt for Wed-Thu and then back near 20kt for Fri. Seas generally
2-3ft Wed-Fri.

Waters 25-60nm...Periods of rain from today through Tuesday AM
may reduce vsby to 3nm at times. Winds fall below 20kt late Mon
night and remain below 20kt through Thu Eve then may gust up to
25kt on Fri. Seas 4-5ft on Tue then 2-3ft for Wed and Thu with
3-4ft for Fri.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for ANZ050.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ051-052.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...21/ARL/MB
AVIATION...21/ARL/MB