Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 181839
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
239 PM EDT Sat Oct 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds across the region tonight, then slowly
exits across the Maritimes through Sunday night. Low pressure
will cross the region Monday night into Tuesday. Another low
will cross the region Wednesday, lifting to the north Thursday.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A warm front will lift north of the region tonight. Otherwise,
ridging surface/aloft will persist tonight. Expect mostly
clear/partly cloudy skies early tonight, then partly/mostly
cloudy overnight with warm frontal clouds. Uncertainty still
exists regarding whether a lower cloud deck is able to re-form
overnight from moisture still trapped beneath a subsidence
inversion. The surface/upper ridge will slowly exit across the
Maritimes Sunday through Sunday night. Expect partly
sunny/mostly cloudy skies early Sunday, with a mostly/partly
sunny afternoon. Energy moving through an upper trof across the
Great Lakes will help support a developing closed low across the
Mid-Atlantic region Sunday night. This upper low will in turn
help support a developing surface low. Expect partly cloudy
skies early Sunday night, with clouds then increasing overnight.
Low temperatures tonight will range from the mid to upper 30s
north, to the upper 30s to around 40 Downeast. High temperatures
Sunday will generally range from the lower to mid 60s across
the forecast area. Low temperatures Sunday night will range from
around 40 to the lower 40s north, to the lower to mid 40s
Downeast.
&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Rain is in store for the vast majority of places, with most of
it coming Monday evening to Tuesday morning. There is still a
bit of timing uncertainty, but slowed down NBM PoPs just a bit
for the onset, which looks to come roughly 5pm Monday along a
Greenville/Bangor/Bar Harbor line, and around 9pm Monday toward
the New Brunswick border. The rain will be with an occluded
front moving ahead of an approaching vertically stacked low
pressure approaching from the southwest. Some decent southeast
winds are in store Monday just ahead of the rain, with gusts
20-30 mph likely. Don`t expect any impacts to trees or
powerlines with these winds. As far as rainfall goes, looking
for generally 0.5 to 1 inch of rain for the southern half of the
area, and around a quarter of an inch in the north. There is
still some uncertainty on rain totals, but don`t expect any
flooding issues even with the wettest solutions. This also looks
like a safe bet for a soaking rain for the harder hit drought
areas in central/southern portions of the area, with a 60-85
percent chance of exceeding 0.5 inch of rain from Millinocket
and Greenville south. Rain tapers off from southwest to
northeast on Tuesday, but chances don`t totally go away by
Tuesday evening.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Perhaps a brief break in the rain Tuesday night, but then a
large upper trough approaches from the west and brings a return
to rain, with another good round of rain likely late Wednesday
and Wednesday night. Looks like another reasonable soaking rain
for most areas, with a preliminary estimate of 0.25 to 0.75 inch
of rain. Models are overall in decent agreement on this system.

After the rain Wednesday night, the drying out that occurs is
pretty minor. An upper trough moves over the region but weakens
some, with shower chances persisting through Friday. The better
chances should be in the north. Temperatures fall from above
average on Wednesday to around average Friday/Saturday. Airmass
should be warm enough that most of the shower activity that does
occur Thursday onward should fall as rain at lower elevations.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Across northern areas, VFR conditions are expected
through early tonight. MVFR ceilings are then possible later
tonight into Sunday morning. However, uncertainty still exists
regarding the possible MVFR ceilings dependent on whether lower
clouds are able to re-develop overnight due to lingering
moisture trapped beneath a subsidence inversion. VFR conditions
are then expected Sunday afternoon into early Sunday night.
Across Downeast areas, generally expect VFR conditions tonight
into early Sunday night. IFR/LIFR conditions are then possible
regionwide later Sunday night with a developing south/southeast
flow from the Gulf of Maine. Light and variable winds, becoming
southeast around 5 knots tonight. Southeast/south winds 5 to 10
knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots Sunday. Southeast/south
winds 5 to 10 knots Sunday night.

SHORT TERM:
Monday...MVFR/IFR, with rain developing late. SE winds 10 to 15
knots with gusts to 25 kts.

Monday night...IFR/LIFR. Rain. E winds 5 to 15 knots with gusts
up to 20 knots.

Tuesday through Thursday...MVFR/IFR with periods of rain. S
winds 5-15 kts.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels tonight
through Sunday night.

SHORT TERM: Small craft southeast winds and seas expected during
the day Monday. Can`t totally rule out gales mainly in western
portions of our waters, but put the probability at about 25
percent. Winds should subside to a bit below small craft Monday
night and Tuesday, but seas should stay up around 5 feet (small
craft). Both winds/seas likely below small craft Tuesday night
to Wednesday evening. Then small craft winds and seas possible
again Thursday.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...CN
Short Term...TF
Long Term...TF
Aviation...CN/TF
Marine...CN/TF