


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
775 FXUS61 KCAR 181839 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 239 PM EDT Sat Oct 18 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds across the region tonight, then slowly exits across the Maritimes through Sunday night. Low pressure will cross the region Monday night into Tuesday. Another low will cross the region Wednesday, lifting to the north Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... A warm front will lift north of the region tonight. Otherwise, ridging surface/aloft will persist tonight. Expect mostly clear/partly cloudy skies early tonight, then partly/mostly cloudy overnight with warm frontal clouds. Uncertainty still exists regarding whether a lower cloud deck is able to re-form overnight from moisture still trapped beneath a subsidence inversion. The surface/upper ridge will slowly exit across the Maritimes Sunday through Sunday night. Expect partly sunny/mostly cloudy skies early Sunday, with a mostly/partly sunny afternoon. Energy moving through an upper trof across the Great Lakes will help support a developing closed low across the Mid-Atlantic region Sunday night. This upper low will in turn help support a developing surface low. Expect partly cloudy skies early Sunday night, with clouds then increasing overnight. Low temperatures tonight will range from the mid to upper 30s north, to the upper 30s to around 40 Downeast. High temperatures Sunday will generally range from the lower to mid 60s across the forecast area. Low temperatures Sunday night will range from around 40 to the lower 40s north, to the lower to mid 40s Downeast. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Rain is in store for the vast majority of places, with most of it coming Monday evening to Tuesday morning. There is still a bit of timing uncertainty, but slowed down NBM PoPs just a bit for the onset, which looks to come roughly 5pm Monday along a Greenville/Bangor/Bar Harbor line, and around 9pm Monday toward the New Brunswick border. The rain will be with an occluded front moving ahead of an approaching vertically stacked low pressure approaching from the southwest. Some decent southeast winds are in store Monday just ahead of the rain, with gusts 20-30 mph likely. Don`t expect any impacts to trees or powerlines with these winds. As far as rainfall goes, looking for generally 0.5 to 1 inch of rain for the southern half of the area, and around a quarter of an inch in the north. There is still some uncertainty on rain totals, but don`t expect any flooding issues even with the wettest solutions. This also looks like a safe bet for a soaking rain for the harder hit drought areas in central/southern portions of the area, with a 60-85 percent chance of exceeding 0.5 inch of rain from Millinocket and Greenville south. Rain tapers off from southwest to northeast on Tuesday, but chances don`t totally go away by Tuesday evening. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Perhaps a brief break in the rain Tuesday night, but then a large upper trough approaches from the west and brings a return to rain, with another good round of rain likely late Wednesday and Wednesday night. Looks like another reasonable soaking rain for most areas, with a preliminary estimate of 0.25 to 0.75 inch of rain. Models are overall in decent agreement on this system. After the rain Wednesday night, the drying out that occurs is pretty minor. An upper trough moves over the region but weakens some, with shower chances persisting through Friday. The better chances should be in the north. Temperatures fall from above average on Wednesday to around average Friday/Saturday. Airmass should be warm enough that most of the shower activity that does occur Thursday onward should fall as rain at lower elevations. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: Across northern areas, VFR conditions are expected through early tonight. MVFR ceilings are then possible later tonight into Sunday morning. However, uncertainty still exists regarding the possible MVFR ceilings dependent on whether lower clouds are able to re-develop overnight due to lingering moisture trapped beneath a subsidence inversion. VFR conditions are then expected Sunday afternoon into early Sunday night. Across Downeast areas, generally expect VFR conditions tonight into early Sunday night. IFR/LIFR conditions are then possible regionwide later Sunday night with a developing south/southeast flow from the Gulf of Maine. Light and variable winds, becoming southeast around 5 knots tonight. Southeast/south winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots Sunday. Southeast/south winds 5 to 10 knots Sunday night. SHORT TERM: Monday...MVFR/IFR, with rain developing late. SE winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts to 25 kts. Monday night...IFR/LIFR. Rain. E winds 5 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Tuesday through Thursday...MVFR/IFR with periods of rain. S winds 5-15 kts. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels tonight through Sunday night. SHORT TERM: Small craft southeast winds and seas expected during the day Monday. Can`t totally rule out gales mainly in western portions of our waters, but put the probability at about 25 percent. Winds should subside to a bit below small craft Monday night and Tuesday, but seas should stay up around 5 feet (small craft). Both winds/seas likely below small craft Tuesday night to Wednesday evening. Then small craft winds and seas possible again Thursday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...CN Short Term...TF Long Term...TF Aviation...CN/TF Marine...CN/TF