578
FXUS61 KCAR 081014
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
614 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level low pressure to our west will slowly lift up to our
north today and tonight and remain across the north through
Sunday. Low pressure will move away to the northeast on Monday
followed by high pressure slowly building in from the west
Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
6:10 AM Update...Showers have been most numerous and substantial
across western areas with only very light sprinkles in the east.
Still expecting some of the more significant showers to spread
east later today as a surface trough moves east at the same time
a cold pool aloft slowly slides to the east adding to
instability. Made some minor changes to pops and raised early
morning temps a degree or two.

Low pressure, both surface and aloft, is located nearby to the
northwest early this morning. Showers from this low have been
most numerous closer to the low center across central and
western parts of our region. A weak trough and surface occlusion
rotating around the low is expected to lift northeast across
the area today, likely increasing shower coverage further east
as it moves through. The atmosphere will become a bit unstable
during the midday and afternoon as a function of colder air
pooled aloft in the upper low and a bit of diurnal heating. With
CAPES up to 300-400 J/kg, will include scattered thunderstorms
over the area, mostly across central and north today. Low
pressure, both surface and aloft, will remain over the northern
part of our region tonight. Shower and drizzle activity will
continue, mostly over the north, although by then the system
looks rather disorganized. Rain amounts of around a half inch to
an inch are likely across the north with a quarter to a half
inch Downeast on average although this could vary considerably
across the area given the showery and convective nature of the
rain. Today will be cooler than recent days with highs generally
in the mid 60s followed by low to mid 50s tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Sunday...
The center of the upper level low pressure moves SE and nears the
NW Maine border. This will put us in a good position for
another day of widespread showers, with a few embedded storms
but nothing strong/severe. Shower activity will be the most
abundant from midday into the afternoon. While some individual
showers and storms will be heavy, not anticipating enough rain
for flooding concerns. Temperatures will be kept down some
because of the abundant clouds and showers, with highs around
70.

Sunday Night...
Activity should quiet to scattered showers Sunday night as we
lose the daytime heating and as the upper level low moves just
to our east into Northern New Brunswick. Some very slightly
drier and cooler air moves in from the west with the passage of
the upper low.

Monday...
The upper level low center will be east of us Monday, with our
area under relatively unstable NW flow. Again, expect convection
especially in the midday to afternoon hours, with possibly a
storm as well. Not expecting quite as much action, though, as
Saturday/Sunday, and have 60-70% PoPs Monday rather than the
80-95% PoPs Sat/Sun.

Models are in good agreement through Monday and forecast
confidence is high.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Tuesday/Wednesday...
A bit of a quieter weather pattern Tuesday/Wednesday with weak
upper level flow. Still going with a chance of afternoon
showers/storms Tue/Wed as the airmass will still be relatively
moist, but with upper level dynamics lacking, not anticipating
any strong or severe storms. Warmer Tuesday with mid to upper
70s, and warmer still Wednesday with around 80.

Thursday/Friday...
Models agreement goes down some Thu/Fri, but most
models/ensembles bring stronger westerly flow in the region,
with perhaps an approaching upper trough toward Friday.
Potential exists for some very warm temperatures (potential for
low to mid 80s) Thu/Fri and decent thunderstorm chances,
especially toward Friday. Fairly muggy with the warmth as well
toward Thu/Fri.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR conditions are expected across the area today,
possibly improving to MVFR at times over the south this
afternoon. IFR conditions are expected tonight.

SHORT TERM:
Sunday...Starting out generally MVFR/IFR, with slow improvement
to MVFR/VFR in the afternoon. Showers will be abundant midday
and afternoon Sunday, with temporary MVFR/IFR in any showers. A
few storms can`t be ruled out as well. Winds SW up to 10 kts.

Sunday Night...MVFR/IFR north and VFR/MVFR south. Patchy fog
could bring locally lower conditions. Light W wind.

Monday...Becoming VFR for most areas by mid-morning, with
generally VFR the rest of the day. However, temporarily MVFR is
likely in any of the numerous midday and afternoon showers and
isolated storms. W wind up to 10 kts.

Monday Night...Generally VFR with a chance of MVFR. Light winds.

Tuesday through Wednesday...Mainly VFR, though can`t rule out
localized fog late Tue night, and temporary reduction in
visibility in any of the scattered afternoon showers/storms.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Wind will remain below SCA today and tonight. Seas
will build up to 4 ft over the offshore waters and 2 to 3 ft
acoss the intracoastal waters. Humid air over the cooler water
will likely produce a bit of fog and mist today and tonight.


SHORT TERM: Winds and seas will likely remain below small craft
levels Saturday night through midweek. Seas will sit around 3
to 4 ft early before decreasing Tue/Wed. Patchy fog is possible
Sunday night and Monday morning.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Bloomer
Short Term...Foisy
Long Term...Foisy
Aviation...Bloomer/Foisy
Marine...Bloomer/Foisy