675
FXUS61 KCAR 100840
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
340 AM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will approach today, cross the area tonight, and
then continue into Eastern Canada on Thursday. High pressure
builds across the region Friday into Saturday. Low pressure
approaches Sunday.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Messages:
*Accumulating snowfall in the north this evening
*Slippery evening commute
*Gusty winds Thursday, with additional snow showers across Maine

A weak upper-level shortwave crosses the area, bringing snow
showers across the Downeast region this morning. Slight chance
for some rain/snow mix along the immediate coast. Immediately
following this shortwave, a stacked low pressure system moves in
from the Great Lakes, bringing a good moisture source into
Maine, alongside some warm air advection ahead of the
associated warm front. Temperatures on Wednesday raise in the
mid-to-upper 20s in the north, low-to-mid 30s in the interior
Downeast, and low-40s along the immediate coast. Because of
these warming temperatures, expecting rain during the day along
the Downeast coast. Interior Downeast has precipitation
beginning as snow in the morning, and then transitioning over to
rain during the day. Generally, precipitation stays as snow in
region north of Houlton and Greenville. There is a chance for a
narrow corridor of freezing rain in the Central Highlands to
Houlton region during the evening time tomorrow, but would
mainly fall in areas that already had some snowfall. If freezing
rain does fall, would only be about a trace to a 0.01 inch.

For snow totals with this system, they are going to heavily
depend on the track of the low pressure system, which is still
relatively uncertain at this time. Most models have the low
tracking over New York Wednesday, but then whether the low stays
north of the state, or crosses the state Wednesday night into
Thursday, is the current uncertainty. What there is confidence
in, however, is that there will be accumulating snowfall in the
north, with heavier totals most likely in Aroostook county.
Central and eastern Aroostook could see 5-8 inches of snowfall.
Central Maine expecting around 3-5 inches. Overnight lows
Wednesday night in the 20s in the north, and low 30s Downeast.

Thursday, low pressure system moves northeast away from the
region. Could be some light snow showers in the north on the
backside of the departing low, with a deformation zone setting
up. High pressure to the south helps to form a tightening
pressure gradient between the two pressure systems, causing some
gusty winds Thursday into Friday. Maximum temperatures on
Thursday in the upper 20s in the north and mid-to-upper 30s
Downeast. Gusty winds persist into to the evening. Freshly
fallen snow could drift or blow around during the afternoon into
evening.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Intensifying low pressure lifts across the Gulf of Saint
Lawrence Thursday night, with a trof extending back across
northern Maine. Aloft, the supporting upper low also crosses
the region. Snow showers are likely across northern areas
Thursday night. Across Downeast areas, expect mostly cloudy
skies along with a chance of snow showers early then partly
cloudy. Winds will also begin to increase Thursday night. The
system will lift toward Labrador Friday. A final disturbance
rotating around the upper low will also cross the region
Friday. Expect mostly cloudy skies along with a slight
chance/chance of snow showers across the north and mountains
Friday, with generally partly sunny skies Downeast. The tight
pressure gradient between the Labrador low and high pressure
across the eastern Great Lakes will support gusty west winds
Friday. Winds gusts of 30 to 40 mph are expected, with locally
higher gusts possible. High pressure will build toward the
region Friday night with generally partly cloudy skies north,
mostly clear Downeast. High pressure should then cross the
region Saturday with partly sunny skies. Temperatures will be
at below normal levels Friday/Saturday.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
An upper low should approach Saturday night with partly/mostly
cloudy skies along with a slight chance of snow showers. The
upper low should cross the region Sunday helping support a
developing ocean low east of the Maritimes. Will have a chance
of snow showers across the region with the upper low Sunday.
Current indications are that the majority of the precipitation
with the ocean low should miss the region. However, the
northwest edge of the precipitation shield could clip Downeast
areas with a chance of snow or snow showers. The intensifying
low will exit across the Maritimes Monday with high pressure
building toward the region late. Generally expect partly cloudy
skies Monday, along with gusty northwest winds. An upper level
disturbance could cross the region Tuesday with partly cloudy
skies along with a slight chance of snow showers. Temperatures
will remain at below normal levels Sunday through Tuesday.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM:
KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KHUL: VFR/MVFR conditions at northern terminals.
Conditions deteriorate to MVFR/IFR as snow begins to move into
the region. Periods of heavy snowfall during the afternoon into
evening, where visibility could drop below a mile. Winds from
the SE around 5-10 kts, shifting to the E, and to the NE. LLWS
this evening into tonight. Slight chance for a brief period of
FZRA at KHUL late this evening.

KBGR/KBHB: MVFR/IFR conditions at southern terminals. Period of
heavier snow moving through southern regions early this morning.
Conditions improve to VFR/MVFR this afternoon, before dropping
back to MVFR/IFR this evening in snow and rain showers. Winds
from the S around 5-10 kts, shifting to the S/SW. Chance for
gusts up to 25kts at KBHB this evening. Chance for LLWS this
evening into tonight.

SHORT TERM:

Thursday night...MVFR/IFR north with snow showers likely.
VFR/MVFR Downeast. A chance of snow showers early.
West/southwest winds 10 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots.

Friday...VFR/MVFR with a slight chance/chance of snow showers
north. VFR Downeast. West winds 15 to 25 knots with gusts 30 to
35 knots.

Friday night...VFR/MVFR north. VFR Downeast. West winds 10 to
20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots.

Saturday through Saturday night...VFR. West winds 10 to 15
knots with gusts up to 20 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots
Saturday. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots Saturday night.

Sunday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of snow showers. Variable winds
5 to 10 knots, becoming northwest/north.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Small Craft Advisory conditions expected today over
all of the waters, and Gale conditions expected this afternoon
through Thursday. Wave heights get as high at 10 ft tonight.
Waves stay elevated, around 7-8 ft through Thursday. Winds from
the SW today, shifting S this evening, and turning SW again
early Thursday. Rain expected Wednesday into Thursday.

SHORT TERM: A Gale Warning is in effect for much of the waters,
with the exception of the intra-coastal waters, Thursday night
into Friday afternoon which might eventually need extending into
Friday night. On the intra-coastal waters, a Gale Watch is in
effect for Thursday evening into Friday afternoon with gale
conditions possibly persisting into Friday night. Conditions are
expected to be below small craft advisory levels on all the
waters Saturday. A chance of snow showers Thursday night.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM EST
     Thursday for MEZ001>004.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST
     Thursday for MEZ005-006-010-031.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ050-
     051.
     Gale Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Friday for
     ANZ050-051.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for ANZ052.
     Gale Watch from Thursday evening through Friday afternoon for
     ANZ052.

&&

$$


Near Term...ASB
Short Term...CN
Long Term...CN
Aviation...ASB/CN
Marine...ASB/CN