506
FXUS61 KCAR 081118
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
618 AM EST Mon Dec 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An area of low pressure exits east over Nova Scotia early this
morning. High pressure builds in behind this system through
tonight, then slides offshore on Tuesday. Another weak low
tracks across the Gulf of Maine Tuesday night. A stronger low
pressure system tracks from the Great Lakes Wednesday morning to
the southern Canadian Maritimes by Thursday morning, followed
by a cold front crossing the area on Thursday. A weak area of
high pressure builds in Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Messages
-Light snow tapers off early this morning
-Some patchy blowing snow possible today over the
 Bangor/Downeast region
-Cold temperatures persist through Tuesday

600 AM Update...Clouds are clearing out of the area a bit
quicker than expected and temperatures stayed slightly warmer
than predicted last night likely to to the winds picking up,
promoting mixing. Adjusted forecast to observations.

245 AM Update...Current mesoscale analysis shows a band of 850mb
frontogenesis over the Upper Penobscot Valley and northern
Washington county which is contributing to a band of moderate
snowfall moving south. Increased snowfall in the areas impacted
by the band.

Previous Discussion...

Low pressure has exited the coast and is moving east through the
Gulf of Maine. The low is expected to strengthen this morning
as it crosses into Nova Scotia. Mainly light snow is ongoing
from the coast all the way north to Frenchville. The highest
totals are expected to be Downeast, especially in eastern
Washington county. 3 to 5" are possible here as the low will be
intensifying as it passes just to the south. Current radar
shows a band of moderate snow just south of Millinocket which
may result in another localized area of higher totals over the
Upper Penobscot Valley.

A few lingering snow showers are possible early this morning as
the system exits but the majority should clear to the east by
7AM. As high pressure begins to build in from the west, a tight
pressure gradient will set up leading to some gusty winds. This
will not only result in very cold wind chills around 0 degrees
in the south and negative teens farther north but could
contribute to some blowing snow. Not expecting the blowing snow
to cause major impacts but it could temporarily reduce
visibility on roadways, especially in the Bangor/Downeast region.

High pressure sticks around through Tuesday along with
temperatures 5 to 10 degrees below average. The coldest day is
expected to be Monday but the coldest wind chills will be Monday
night as a result of subzero temperatures and a light westerly
breeze.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages

*Light snow mainly for Downeast areas Tuesday night
*Another round of snow north, with snow/rain for the Bangor
 region Wednesday night.

Weak warm advection and an approaching short wave will bring another
round of light snow to the region Tuesday night. The best
probability of measurable snow will be across Downeast portions
of the forecast area. This will be a quick moving system with
limited moisture. At present, it appears snow accumulations will
range from 1 to 2 inches with this system, and mainly across
Downeast areas. There could even be enough low level warming for
a snow/rain mix along the immediate coast. Across the north,
little if any accumulation is expected.

This system exits quickly by Wednesday morning, with any lingering
light snow ending by or shortly after sunrise. The reprieve
will be short lived, as a clipper type system quickly
approaches from the west during Wednesday. There are still some
uncertainty regarding the track of the low, but the overall
model consensus indicates a track across the central portions of
the forecast area, and then into New Brunswick province later
Wednesday night.

Precipitation with this system will develop from west to east
during Wednesday afternoon. The precipitation will be mainly in
the form of snow to the north of the Bangor region. Expect
precipitation to begin as snow in the Bangor region, then mix
with and change to rain during the afternoon. Along the coast,
precipitation should begin as mainly rain.

As far as snow accumulations with Wednesday nights system, it
appears that northern areas may see a general 2 to 4 inch
snowfall Wednesday night, and it is not totally out of the
question that we may need an advisory for this area. Across the
Bangor region and Downeast, little if any snow accumulations
are expected.

Afternoon high temperatures on Wednesday will be near, or just
below normal for this time of year.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key Messages

*Continued below normal temperatures for this time of year.

National blended model approach was followed as the basis for the
forecast during this period.

Surface low exits to our northeast Thursday through Thursday night
with westerly flow and continued cold advection. Upper level low
pressure will cross the region through Thursday night. Some
uncertainty as to whether it crosses the state or passes to our
north. Expect mainly cloudy skies across the north on Thursday with
partly cloudy skies for the Bangor region and Downeast.
Scattered flurries or isolated snow showers not totally out of
the question.

West to northwest flow is expected late week into next weekend.
At present, it looks mainly dry.  Afternoon high temperatures
will generally continue below normal for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Some lingering snow showers early this morning could
lead to a brief drop to MVFR for CAR/PQI/FVE. Otherwise, VFR for
all terminals through Tuesday. LLWS expected at northern
terminals tonight. NW winds increase to 10 to 15 kts with gusts 20
to 25 kts this morning, then subside to around 5 kts out of the
W by tonight. S/SW winds 5 to 10 kts Tuesday.

SHORT TERM:

Tue night...MVFR or lower -SN, especially KBGR/KBHB.

Wed...VFR early, then MVFR or lower developing in the afternoon
in -SN north and -SN/-RA south.

Wed night...MVFR or lower. -SN north and -RA south.

Thu through Fri...VFR/MVFR. Isold -shsn. Gusty NW wind.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A small craft advisory is in effect from 4 AM this
morning to 11 PM tonight for the intercoastal waters. A gale
warning is in effect until 11 AM this morning for the outer
waters. Winds increase to above gale criteria for the outer
waters and above small craft criteria over the inner waters
early this morning. A few wind gusts could approach gale
criteria over the inner waters. The strongest winds should be
around daybreak today and will be accompanied by seas 3 to 6 ft
on the outer waters. Winds remain above small craft criteria
until just before midnight tonight for the inner waters and a
few hours after midnight for the outer waters. Winds and seas
below small craft criteria Tuesday.

SHORT TERM: Potential for gale force wind gusts Tuesday night
through Wednesday night. Small craft conditions are then
expected Thursday into Friday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 11 AM EST this morning for ANZ050-051.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for ANZ052.

&&

$$


Near Term...SM
Short Term...TWD
Long Term...TWD
Aviation...SM/TWD
Marine...SM/TWD