085
FXUS61 KCAR 051929
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
229 PM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain over the area tonight and move east of the
region on Saturday. A cold front will approach Saturday night and
cross the area early Sunday morning. Low pressure will approach
Sunday afternoon and track through the Gulf of Maine Sunday night.
High pressure will approach on Monday and slide south of the area
Tuesday. Low pressure will approach on Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:
>Cloudy and Cold Tonight, Light Winds
>Light Rain/Snow Possible Downeast Saturday PM/Eve

Discussion...

Tonight, weak surface high pressure drifts SE of Nova Scotia as
500mb ridge builds overhead. Skies will turn partly cloudy for a
little while this evening. Temperatures with light and variable
winds, clearing skies and fresh snowpack will rapidly fall back
to around 0F across the north, +2F to +7F for the central zones
including Bangor and +8F to +15F for the Downeast coast.

Tomorrow weak southerly return flow develops around the high
turns winds southerly across the area. Highs will climb into the
low to mid 20s north, mid to upper 20s Central Highlands, around
30F for Bangor and upper 30s Downeast. Cannot rule out some
isolated snow showers with the slight increase of boundary layer
moisture and mainly cloudy skies. A weak surface trof will
develop along the Downeast coast and be the focus for some light
precipitation of either rain or snow till sunset and turn
mainly to snow. Not expecting much precipitation but as the sun
sets and temperatures cool expecting potential for slick travel
along the Route 1 corridor east of Machias to Eastport region.
Up to 1 inch of snow is possible.

Saturday night a very weak wave, barely a cold front will cross
the state. Skies will break up to partly cloudy skies with
temperatures falling back into the teens for most locations.
Exception of single digits in the North Woods and St. John
Valley and 20s along the Downeast coast. Light SW winds will
shift back W as a weak surface wave pushes through the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
An Arctic front will push across the north during the predawn hours
Sunday, possibly with some isolated snow showers. The front will
reach the coast around late morning. Arctic air will follow with
clearing by midday Sunday followed by some increasing high clouds
from the south late Sunday afternoon ahead of a weak shortwave.

A weak weather system rounding the bottom of a trough centered over
the Eastern Great Lakes will approach Sunday night bringing
increasing clouds. A small low will track into the Gulf of Maine
late Sunday night spreading light snow across the area, mainly
Downeast, where 1 to 2 inches of snow may fall by early Monday
morning. A bit of light snow will likely reach northern areas early
to mid morning Monday, mainly as a function of lift out ahead of the
shortwave trough crossing the area. The upper trough and surface low
will quickly continue to the east Monday afternoon followed by
clearing Downeast and partial clearing over the north. Gusty winds
will likely result in patchy blowing snow Monday afternoon as Arctic
air surges in.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Monday night will be clear to partly cloudy and very cold with lows
by Tuesday morning dipping just below zero over the north and into
the single digits Downeast. High clouds may begin to increase over
the north ahead of a weather disturbance tracking from Ontario
into Quebec.

Clouds will increase Tuesday and a bit of light snow is
possible Tuesday night as the weather disturbance moves across.

Our focus on Wednesday will be on a new low approaching from the
west. Current forecast models disagree on the track of this system
with the GFS carrying the low to our northwest which would bring
snow or mix changing over to rain and a south wind. The ECMWF,
however, tracks the low into the Gulf of Maine late Wednesday into
Wednesday night favoring snow across the region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: SCT-BKN VFR cigs across the north. VFR high
cigs south. Winds mainly becoming light and variable at all
terms. Tonight, VFR cigs at all terms. BKN030 at FVE may brief
dip to MVFR cigs at times tonight. Winds light and variable all
terms. Tomorrow VFR cigs all sites except BHB. BHB becoming MVFR
with -SN/-RASN possible by early afternoon. Light S-SE winds
all terms. Sat night turning VFR all sites. Winds shifting W-WNW
5-15kt.

SHORT TERM:
Sunday...VFR. NW wind around 10 kt gusting to 15 kt.

Sunday night...VFR dropping to MVFR then IFR south. VFR dropping to
MVFR north. N wind around 5 kt.

Monday...MVFR becoming VFR. NW wind 10 kt gusting to 20 kt.

Monday night...VFR. NW wind 5 to 10 kt.

Tuesday...VFR. W wind becoming SW 5 to 10 kt.

Tuesday night...VFR possibly lowering to MVFR S wind around 5 kt.

Wednesday...MVFR dropping to IFR. SE wind around 5 to 10 kt.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas expected to remain below SCA criteria
through Saturday night. NW wind gusts may approach 25kt across
the outer most coastal waters Sat night. Light rain or snow may
reduce vsby at times Sat night. Seas generally 1-3ft through
Saturday night.

SHORT TERM:
A SCA may be needed early Sunday for winds gusting up to 25 kt
over the offshore waters. A gale may be needed Monday into
Monday night for NW winds gusting up to 35 kt. Some light
freezing spray will be possible in the gale.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...JS
Short Term...MB
Long Term...MB
Aviation...JS/MB
Marine...JS/MB