665
FXUS61 KCAR 292347
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
747 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
745 pm update...Update for 00z aviation discussion.

- Increased rain chances Thursday further north.

-Chance for another low pressure system and rain Sunday into
 Monday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Fog likely tonight, especially Downeast. Fog could be dense
enough to impact travel especially near the coast.

2) Periods of light rain late tonight, Thursday, and Thursday
night, with higher totals Downeast.

3) Chance of rain and thunderstorms this weekend into early next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Fog likely tonight, especially Downeast. Fog
could be dense enough to impact travel especially near the
coast.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
Fog has mostly lifted this afternoon, with the notable exception
of coastal Hancock County. The fog initially lifted this
morning for coastal Hancock, but low clouds and fog have moved
back in early this afternoon as onshore flow increases. Less fog
right now for Washington County coast, but that should change
this evening. Think that the Downeast coast could be in store
for dense fog again tonight, with very moist low-level onshore
flow persisting. Not quite confident enough yet to issue dense
fog advisory for the coast, but it`s definitely something to
watch. Further inland tonight, while there will be some fog,
think that the tendency will be for it to be mainly low clouds a
couple hundred feet off the ground. Do have patchy fog in the
forecast for all areas though.

Fog risk lessens some during the day Thursday and into Thursday
night despite some light rain. This is because of the low-level
flow becoming more easterly instead of southerly, which means a
bit less low-level moisture coming off the Gulf of Maine. Still
could be some coastal fog during the day Thursday and possibly
anywhere Thursday night, but not anticipating anything too bad.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Periods of light rain late tonight, Thursday,
and Thursday night, with higher totals Downeast.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
Low pressure passing south of the area will graze us with some
light rain. This is not looking impactful in terms of flooding,
and will be beneficial for many areas as it is getting fairly
dry. In fact, there are some river and streams that are running
close to record low levels for the date. The greatest rain
totals from this system will very likely be Downeast. There is
still a lot of uncertainty as to just how much rain makes it
north of Bangor. Generally, models are trending a little wetter
further north, and we are trending the forecast this direction.
If rain does make it to far Northern Maine, most likely it
would be during the day Thursday, ending Thursday evening.
Downeast has a larger window of possible light rain from this
evening through Thursday night, but it will be intermittent and
not raining even close to the whole time. All together, we are
looking at anywhere from a trace to quarter inch of rain for
Northern Maine, a tenth to third of an inch central areas, and a
quarter to three quarters of an inch Downeast. There could a
couple embedded storms during the day Thursday Downeast and over
the waters, but these will not be surface-based and not strong.


KEY MESSAGE 3...Chance of rain and thunderstorms this weekend
into early next week.

KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
Some isolated showers with general thunder possible in the North
Woods on Saturday. Low pressure system approaches from the west
Sunday into Monday, bringing the next chance at steady rainfall.
Low pressure swings into Maine as a high pressure system to the
southwest pushes northeast into the Great Lakes region. Not
anticipating heavy rain totals right now  could see up to 12 an
inch in north, and up to 14 of an inch Downeast. There could be
some thunder moving along frontal boundary on Monday, with a few
hundred J/kg of CAPE and 7-8C/km lapse rates. Too early to have
confidence in any storm severity, however.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Tonight...IFR cigs moving into Downeast terminals this
evening. FVE, CAR and PQI should see IFR move in after 10z this
morning, with a 60% chance of IFR. Drizzle and fog possible at
Aroostook terminals toward 11z and continuing until mid-morning
with -ra moving in. Light and variable winds.

Thursday...IFR early, then generally MVFR by 16z, except
possibly staying IFR all day at BHB. Intermittent light rain.
Possibly a thunderstorm at BGR/BHB. E/NE winds 5-10 kts.

Thursday night...Lower confidence, with conditions ranging from
IFR to VFR with some low clouds and fog, most likely BGR/BHB.
N winds 5 to 10 kts.

Friday...MVFR/IFR early due to fog, then VFR/MVFR. Isolated
rain showers in the afternoon. N winds at 5 to 10 kts.

Friday night...MVFR/IFR with any patchy fog late.
Otherwise, VFR. Light and variable winds.

Saturday...MVFR/IFR in early morning fog. Otherwise, VFR. W
winds 5 to 10 knots.

Saturday night...MVFR/IFR with any patchy fog late.
Otherwise, VFR. Light S winds overnight.

Sunday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers. Slight chance of an
afternoon thunderstorm. S winds 10 to 15 knots
with gusts up to around 20 knots.

Sunday night - Monday...MVFR with rain showers, and afternoon
thunderstorms. Light S winds Sunday night, becoming W/SW at 5-10
kts during the day Monday. Gusts to 20 kts possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight, seas less than 5 ft and winds 15 kts or less. Thursday
and evening, seas other than the intracoastal waters could
approach 5 ft, but not enough confidence yet to issue small
craft advisory. Fog tonight over the waters, possibly lingering
to Thursday night. A few thunderstorms possible over the waters
during the day Thursday.

Outer waters could see 5ft waves into Friday evening.
Afterwords, seas 2-4 ft rest of the weekend. NE winds Friday,
shifting NW Saturday, and S by Sunday. Rain possible Friday,
and again Sunday into Monday. Patchy fog Friday night.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ASB/TF
AVIATION...ASB/21/TF