048
FXUS61 KCAR 030643
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
243 AM EDT Wed Sep 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak shortwave moves through today with high pressure on
Thursday. An occluded/cold front passing through on Friday. A
secondary cold front moves through the area Saturday with high
pressure building in behind it for early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Upper level low pressure will remain across the Great Lakes region
through tonight. A weak upper trough in advance of this system will
cross the region this afternoon. This feature will bring isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms to far northern areas this
afternoon. Otherwise, expect partly to mostly sunny skies across the
region today. Highs this afternoon will range from the mid to
upper 70s but it will be cooler along the coast as a result of
an onshore flow.

Any lingering isolated showers across northern areas will quickly
diminish early this evening followed by mainly clear to partly
cloudy skies tonight along with light winds. Lows tonight will
range from the upper 40s to lower 50s across the region.

A broad upper level trough will be in place across much of the
central and eastern portions of the nation during Thursday.
Northern New England will remain under the influence of mid to upper
level ridging in advance of the approaching trough from the west.
Expect another mainly sunny and dry day Thursday with afternoon
high temperatures once again in the mid to upper 70s away from
the coast.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure continues to move offshore Thursday night while a
vertically stacked low pressure system stalls out over the Great
Lakes. At the surface, a cold/occluded front will approach
western Maine while gradually weakening. Light southerly flow
ahead of the boundary bringing moist low-level air northward may
contribute to some patchy fog development particularly near the
coast and in the central highlands overnight. Rain showers are
expected along the weakening occluded/cold front beginning in
western Maine early Friday, spreading east throughout the day.
An isolated thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out in the west
during the afternoon but confidence is low due to limited
instability. A secondary cold front will approach the area
Friday night bringing more showers to northern and western Maine
with the greatest chance for precipitation farther north. On
Saturday, the cold front progresses southeast and lift along it
increases in response to an upper-level trough off to the west.
Models show a corridor of instability in the Bangor and interior
Downeast region of 500-1000 J/kg which in combination with the
ample lift should be sufficient for some scattered thunderstorms
in addition to moderate rainfall. The exact evolution of the
cold front is still uncertain as ensembles show some discrepancy
in rainfall potential, likely due to the details of the
interaction between the cold front and trough.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The cold front gradually moves offshore through Sunday morning
but some showers could stick around along the coast through the
day depending on how quickly the front exits the area. Added a
chance of showers in the north during the day as models show
some weak instability and a shortwave off to the west which
could provide sufficient lift. High pressure builds in on Monday
as the upper-level trough exits the area. Expect mostly sunny
skies with below normal temperatures through mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions expected today outside of any early morning
patchy fog. A thunderstorm could affect the KFVE terminal this
afternoon with brief MVFR possible. S wind around 10 kt.

VFR tonight except late night patchy fog is possible with
locally lower conditions possible. light and variable wind.

VFR Thursday. S wind around 10 kt.


SHORT TERM:

Thursday night...VFR early. MVFR/IFR late. Slight chance/chance of
showers late. Some patchy fog also possible for southern
terminals. South/southeast winds 5 to 10 knots.

Friday...VFR/MVFR. Occasional IFR/LIFR early especially at
southern terminals where patchy fog is possible. Increasing
shower chances with the greatest likelihood of precipitation at
northern terminals. South/southeast winds 10 to 15 knots with
gusts up to around 20 knots.

Friday night...MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR. Showers likely at
northern terminals. South/southwest winds 10 to 15 knots.

Saturday...MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR especially for southern
terminals. Rain with scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon at
HUL/BGR/BHB. South/southwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up
to 20 knots.

Saturday night...MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR especially for
southern terminals. Rain. Variable winds around 5 kts.

Sunday...VFR/MVFR. A slight chance/chance of showers. West
winds 5 to 10 knots.

Sunday night...VFR. West winds around 5 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas will remain below SCA levels through Thursday.
Visibility will be reduced to 1 to 3 NM in late night and early
morning patchy fog through Thursday.

SHORT TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels Thursday
through Friday. Wind gusts and seas could approach small craft advisory
levels Friday night. Winds decrease slightly Saturday but seas
may remain around 5 ft. A slight chance of showers Friday/Friday
night. Rain Saturday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...TWD
Short Term...Melanson
Long Term...Melanson
Aviation...TWD/Melanson
Marine...TWD/Melanson