198
FXUS61 KCAR 141739
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
139 PM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
- A Frost Advisory has been issued for northeast and southern
  Aroostook County and northern Penobscot County.

- Adjusted rain to begin Thursday night.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Patchy/areas of frost possible across northern
areas tonight.

2) Chance for rain showers by late next week, though little to
no drought improvement anticipated.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Patchy/areas of frost possible across northern
areas tonight.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
High pressure will build across the region tonight, bringing
clear skies and light winds. This will result in favorable
conditions for radiational cooling. Low temperatures will
generally range from the mid to upper 30s across much of
northern Maine. However, temperatures could locally drop to
around freezing across northwest areas. Patchy/areas of frost
are possible tonight across northern areas, particularly in the
normally colder low lying locations. Patchy river valley fog is
also possible later tonight.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Chance for rain showers by late next week,
though little to no drought improvement anticipated.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
Low pressure system to the far north moves eastward, pushing a
front through New England late next week. Ensemble models have
slowed the progression of the front with more members leans
towards Thursday evening and Thursday night for rain. Upper air
model soundings indicate a large dry airmass ahead of the front.
This coupled with the decreasing intensity of the front, rain
showers look to be minimal, especially for the north. Cannot
rule out some scattered rain showers across the south.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Rest of today...MVFR in rain showers improves to VFR by 19z. NW
winds gusting to 30 kts should become light by the evening.

Tonight...VFR. Light and variable winds.

Tuesday...VFR. Light and variable winds early, becoming S winds
5 to 10 kts.

Tuesday night...VFR. S winds 5 to 10 kts.

Wednesday...VFR. SW winds 5-10 kts

Wednesday night..Mainly VFR with IFR/LIFR in patchy fog for all
terminals. Light and variable winds.

Thursday to Thursday Night...Mainly VFR. Chance for MVFR in
rain showers. Light and variable winds.

Friday...VFR. Light and variable winds early, then SW winds 5 to
10kts, gusting to 15kts.

Saturday...VFR. WNW winds 5-10 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
A few SCA level gusts possible over the intra-coastals this
afternoon. Near SCA level gusts over outer waters this evening.
Otherwise, generally below SCA criteria through Saturday with
gusts below 20 kts and seas 2 to 4 ft.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Frost Advisory from 4 AM to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for MEZ002-005-
     006.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ052.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ARL/SM
AVIATION...ARL/SM