609
FXUS61 KCAR 281822
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
222 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will slide to the east tonight. Upper level low
pressure will drop south from Quebec on Friday then slowly cross
the area this weekend. High pressure will return Monday into
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Sfc low located over Quebec/Ontario border with southerly flow
bringing increasing moisture to the region. Expect this to continue
tonight as upr low captures sfc low and begins to retrograde system,
essentially stopping it/s forward progress for a time. Skies will
cloud up tonight with possible marine layer moving in over Downeast
and into srn areas and possibly up toward Houlton late.

Showers look to be delayed until late tomorrow morning acrs the west
and early-mid afternoon over ern zones. Given the extensive moisture
return and elevated instability have included isolated to scattered
storms during the afternoon hours tomorrow and continuing for
several hours during the overnight period. Occluded front moves over
most of the CWA during the nighttime hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An upper level low centered just west of the area over
southeastern Quebec at 12z Saturday will very slowly move
eastward over the weekend, leading to below normal temperatures,
cloud cover, and showers. Weak south flow on Saturday will bring
enough moisture and elevated instability for an isolated
thunderstorm or two, mainly across eastern portions of the
forecast area where synoptic scale lift will be greatest. High
temperatures Saturday will generally be in the 60s, although a
few spots may reach 70 Downeast. Total precipitation through
Saturday evening is expected to be between a half inch and one
inch, with some variability due to the convective nature of
precipitation. Isolated spots may see higher amounts around two
inches.

The upper level low will move directly overhead Saturday night.
The greatest lift and moisture will pivot east of the area,
resulting in partial clearing and shower chances decreasing and
becoming confined to far northern Maine. Light winds and
lingering surface moisture could result in patchy fog
development. Low temperatures will generally be in the upper 40s
to lower 50s.

For Sunday, the upper level low will be east of the area into
the Canadian Maritimes. Low level lapse rates may support an
isolated shower across the north with stratocumulus favored,
limiting daytime temperatures in the upper 60s to near 70.
Southern portions of the forecast area towards Bangor and
Downeast Maine are more likely to see clearer skies with more
limited diurnal cumulus development, which will allow
temperatures to warm further into the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Surface high pressure will settle over the area Sunday night
through Tuesday while a broad upper level trough remains across
the eastern US. Low level lapse rates may be steep enough for a
stray afternoon shower across the north, but strong capping
inversions are favored both Monday and Tuesday afternoon with
synoptic scale subsidence favoring stratocumulus and less
vertical development of clouds. Temperatures will be around
normal for early September with highs in the mid 70s and lows in
the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Surface high pressure moves east of the area for Wednesday and
Thursday, leading to weak warm advection and temperatures
slightly above normal with highs into the upper 70s and lows in
the low to mid 50s. Dry conditions are likely to continue with
deterministic and ensemble guidance strongly favoring that
precipitation holds off until Thursday night or Friday, after
the forecast period, although some members do bring showers into
western areas late Thursday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR overnight at northern Aroostook terminals before
diminishing to BKN VFR early-mid morning. HUL and Downeast
terminals to see VFR this evening before dropping to potential
MVFR cigs after 06z though still uncertain how low cigs will
drop.

Showers and possible storms to bring MVFR to terminals late
Friday afternoon and Friday night. Late Friday night might bring
MVFR/IFR to Downeast terminals.


SHORT TERM:
Saturday: MVFR/IFR early, improving to MVFR/VFR in the
afternoon. Showers, with isolated TSRA. Variable winds 10 kts
or less.

Saturday Night: Patchy fog Saturday night could lead to local
IFR.  Light winds.

Sunday: VFR Downeast, with a period of MVFR north becoming VFR. VCSH
at northern terminals. NW winds 5-10kts.

Sunday Night to Tuesday: VFR with light winds.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Seas and winds remain below small craft levels
through Friday night. Visibilities may be reduced over the
waters Friday night and early Saturday morning.

SHORT TERM:
Winds and seas will remain below advisory levels
into next week, with seas generally 2 to 3 feet this weekend
decreasing to 1 to 2 feet next week and winds around 10 kts or
less.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Buster
Short Term...MStrauser
Long Term...MStrauser
Aviation...Buster/MStrauser
Marine...Buster/MStrauser