807
FXUS61 KCAR 121458
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
958 AM EST Wed Nov 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure moves north of the area today. A series of upper
level disturbances will cross the region into Saturday. Low
pressure will approach the region Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
6 AM Update... Update to Marine section. See below.

Current radar shows light snow has moved out of the area as the
trough axis exits Maine and moves off to the northeast. Winds
will be elevated behind the departing trough as weak high
pressure building in from the west combined with strengthening
low pressure over the maritimes contributes to a strong pressure
gradient over the area. Expect winds to gust 20 to 30 mph with
the greatest winds over the north and higher terrain. Beginning
early this morning winds will begin a downward trend throughout
the day today, eventually becoming light and variable tonight.

Weakening surface high pressure moving into the area today
should mostly keep precipitation out of the area. However, a
shortwave moving along the coast should result in a few showers
over the waters and coastal regions. Expect precipitation to
fall as rain as temperatures there will be in the low 40s.

Tonight, a shortwave trough approaches the North Woods from the
west and passes through the state. This should bring some
isolated snow showers through northern and central Maine.

On Thursday, a closed upper-low develops over the area. Upper-
level shortwave energy is expected to wrap around the low
through Maine during the day resulting in scattered snow showers
in the north and rain showers in the south. Greater
precipitation coverage will be in the south where a more
pronounced shortwave disturbance is expected. Snow showers may
be convective in nature as a cold pool from the upper low in
combination with modest surface heating contributes to steep
low-level lapse rates and a weak instability profile.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Upper level trof remain across the region Thursday night through
Friday night as upper level low pressure closes off across the
Canadian Maritimes. Expect mainly cloudy skies across the region
Thursday night. An isolated snow shower is possible across
northern areas and an isolated snow or rain shower is possible
across the Bangor region and Downeast areas. Expect mainly to
partly cloudy skies Friday through Friday night. Lows Thursday
and Friday nights will be in the upper teens to lower 30s north
and mid to upper 20s for the Bangor region and Downeast. Highs
on Friday will range from the low to mid 30s north and upper 30s
to lower 40s across the Bangor region and Downeast areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Low pressure at the surface and aloft will begin to retrograde to
our north across Quebec province from the New Foundland Labrador
region Saturday through Saturday night. Expect dry conditions on
Saturday with mainly sunny skies expected. Increasing clouds are
expected Saturday evening as low pressure approaches from the Great
Lakes region with a chance of snow later Saturday night.

Uncertainty exits with regard to where the approaching low
redevelops during Sunday as upper level energy dives southeast from
central Canada. The latest EC redevelops the low across the Gulf of
Maine and then takes it east across central Nova Scotia during
Sunday night. The GFS develops a low along the Downeast coast and
then takes it quickly through the Canadian Maritimes Sunday night.
The CMC is similar to the operational GFS. Based on ensemble
data, there is a rather high degree of certainty that the area
will receive precipitation Sunday into Sunday night. Snow is
favored across the north and rain or snow across central and
downeast areas. Again, the exact track of the low will
ultimately determine precipitation type.

The low will move to our northeast Monday and Monday night with
mainly cloudy skies and the chance of snow showers along with a
gusty northwest wind. Tuesday looks dry with westerly flow expected
both at the surface and aloft.

Afternoon highs will generally average near normal levels for
this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: All terminals have improved to VFR and are expected
to remain VFR with occasional MVFR through early Wednesday
night. The exception is BHB which will likely become MVFR this
afternoon in light rain showers. Winds 10 to 20 kts with gusts
up to 25 and possibly 30 kts expected through early this
morning but should be on a downward trend throughout the day
today, becoming light and variable this evening.

Conditions deteriorate to MVFR in the north late tonight with a
few isolated snow showers possible. VFR south. Light and
variable winds.

On Thursday, VFR north/MVFR south. VCSH for northern terminals
and -SHRA for southern terminals. N wind around 5 kts.

SHORT TERM:

Thursday night through Saturday night...VFR/MVFR. N to NW wind.

Sunday...IFR. Snow north and rain snow south. E to SE wind.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Gale Warning cancelled as gusts begin to fall below
criteria. Issued an SCA through the evening due to persisting
elevated seas. SCA for inter-coastals out into early this
afternoon. Gusts for all waters will decrease to below SCA
criteria by mid-afternoon. Winds remain below SCA criteria
through Thursday. Seas remain near SCA criteria Thursday.

SHORT TERM: Winds/seas will remain below SCA levels Thursday
night, then possibly increase to SCA levels Friday and Friday
night. Winds are then expected to remain below SCA levels
Saturday and Saturday night, then increase to SCA levels Sunday
and Sunday night.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ050-
     051.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ052.

&&

$$


Near Term...ASB/SM
Short Term...TWD
Long Term...TWD
Aviation...ASB/SM/TWD
Marine...ASB/SM/TWD