682
FXUS61 KCAR 061831
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
131 PM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front crosses Maine tonight, followed by high pressure
building in through Sunday. An area of low pressure tracks from
northeastern New York Sunday evening to near southeastern Nova
Scotia Monday morning. High pressure builds in behind this system
through Monday night, then slides offshore on Tuesday. Another weak
low tracks across the Gulf of Maine Tuesday night. A stronger low
pressure system tracks from the Great Lakes Wednesday morning to the
southern Canadian Maritimes by Thursday morning, followed by a cold
front crossing the area on Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Two weak events will bring a modicum of snow to the forecast
area through Sunday night. An Arctic front will cross tonight,
bringing some snow showers mainly to Northern Maine. This front
appears to be increasingly dry as it approaches the region, so
not much snowfall is expected. What this front will do, is bring
a cold air mass which will remain in place through Sunday
night. This will drop temperatures to well below normal on
Sunday and Sunday night, ensuring that any precip that falls
with the weak low approaching Sunday night will fall as snow.

Sunday evening, a low pressure system will develop over the Gulf
of Maine and move northeast along the coast. This will bring
light snowfall through Sunday night, mostly to Downeast Maine.
The heaviest period of snowfall will be late Sunday night, but
all in all, less than 3 inches of accumulation is expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The axis of a northern stream trough crosses the area Monday
morning, supporting some snow across mainly across southeastern
portions of Downeast Maine. It should be dry Monday afternoon
throughout with decreasing clouds with a colder and drier air
mass moving in on NW flow aloft. Highs on Monday should be
around 20 degrees below normal - mainly in the 10s, with wind
chills generally in the negative single digits. Wind gusts of
25-35 mph probable on Monday.

The flow aloft backs from NW to WNW Monday night, with
corresponding warm air advection aloft. Should see some
increase in cloud cover as a result. Lows Monday night should be
around 15-20 degrees below normal, with wind chills around -5
to -15.

Zonal flow Tuesday morning gives way to northern stream
shortwave ridging building in during the afternoon. The
subsidence should be sufficient to keep things dry, but there
will be sufficient moisture advection ahead of the next system
to bring in mid and high clouds, especially in the afternoon.
Highs on Tuesday should be around 10-15 degrees below normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A northern stream shortwave crosses the area Tuesday night
bringing some mainly light snow to the region, with the best
chance of snow, including possibly moderate snowfall, being
across Downeast Maine.

Another northern stream shortwave crosses the area from
Wednesday into Wednesday night, exiting to the east late at
night. This should bring a widespread snow to the North with
rain across most of Downeast Maine, with a rain/snow mix in
between. There is the potential for a plowable snowfall if
current trends hold.

Another northern stream shortwave crosses the area on Thursday,
bringing the chance of some snow showers across the North, rain
showers across coastal Downeast, with a mix of rain and snow
showers possible elsewhere.

The models then differ in timing/placing of systems Thursday
night-Saturday, with solutions ranging from dry, to isolated to
scattered showers, to a coastal low. For now went with slight
chance to chance pops during this time frame. Until the models
are able to sort out the main players in this time frame, the
forecast could be quite volatile in this time frame. The one
consistent signal is that it should continue to be seasonably
cold late next week. That would tend to favor any precipitation
being in the form of snow, except possibly a rain/snow mix near
the coast.

Temperatures should be near to slightly below normal Tuesday
night-Thursday, then below normal Thursday night-Saturday.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: TAFs starting out mainly VFR today, with cigs
dropping to MVFR overnight in -SHSN. IFR conditions possible in
snow showers, mainly earlier in the period with the heavier
showers. Becoming VFR at all sites Sunday morning, lasting
through Sunday evening. Sunday night, MVFR across the north with
MVFR tempo IFR at BGR and BHB in -SN. Light SW winds becoming
NNW 10 kts.


SHORT TERM:
Monday...VFR, except for MVFR or lower possible at KBHB early.
NW-W winds G20-30KT probable.

Monday night-Tuesday...VFR. W winds G15-25KT possible Monday
night, SW-S winds G15-20KT possible Tuesday.

Tuesday night-Wednesday evening. MVFR or lower possible, with
snow across the North, and snow Tuesday night, then rain and/or
snow at southern terminals Wednesday-Wednesday evening. LLWS
possible Tuesday night-Wednesday evening, with the highest
chance at southern terminals.

Late Wednesday night-Thursday...becoming VFR late Wednesday
night. W winds G15-25KT possible Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A few gusts to 25 kts tonight, mainly on the outer
waters. Light winds and seas on Sunday, then increasing N/NE
winds Sunday night. Potentially increasing to gales late Sunday.
Seas 2 to 4 feet.



SHORT TERM: Gale conditions possible on the coastal ocean waters
Monday, will highlight this threat in the HWO. Otherwise SCA
conditions likely on all waters from Monday into Monday night.
There could be a period of sub-SCA conditions Tuesday morning,
before SCA conditions probably return to all waters Tuesday
afternoon. Gales are probable on the coastal ocean waters
Tuesday night, with this threat also highlighted in the HWO,
with SCA conditions likely on the intra- coastal waters. SCA
conditions are then probable on the coastal ocean waters and
possible on the intra- coastal waters Wednesday- Thursday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...LF
Short Term...PM
Long Term...PM
Aviation...LF/PM
Marine...LF/PM