926
FXUS61 KCAR 162342
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
642 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will track north across New Brunswick tonight then up
over Newfoundland Monday into Monday night. Low pressure will remain
well to our north Tuesday into Wednesday as high pressure builds in
from the west. High pressure will crest over the area Thursday then
continue east of the region Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
640 PM Update: The center of the low is currently tracking
eastward up the Bay of Fundy. This low track is southeast of
where it was previously modeled, leading to colder than forecast
temperatures across the CWA and more snow all the way to the
coast than originally forecast. Forecast temperatures were
lowered for tonight and Monday with this update based on the
shift in low track, and slight adjustments to QPF and forecast
snow totals were also made based on current observations and
trends.

Previous Discussion:
Low pressure will continue to intensify this evening as it tracks
north through New Brunswick. A dry intrusion lifting north may limit
snow for a bit early this evening. However, as the low intensifies,
the snow is expected to fill in again, mainly over the highlands on
north tonight. Forecast snow amounts remain very challenging from
Caribou and Presque Isle on east where some milder air backing in
from the Maritimes and some downsloping off the higher elevations of
New Bruswick may limit amounts a bit. Latest model guidance is
suggesting precipitation should remain all snow, though it may be
wet and dense later tonight as milder air backs in. Snow will
diminish to snow showers later tonight as the low continues
northeast toward the Gulf of St. Lawrence. Latest forecast
guidance just coming in is showing slightly lesser amounts for
far western areas and greater amounts for the northeast.
However, this is all contingent on the coverage of snow
expanding again as the low develops to our southeast this
evening.

Low pressure will continue away to the northeast across the Gulf of
St. Lawrence on Monday. Lingering snow showers and a gusty
northwesterly wind will follow as high pressure begins to build well
to our southwest.

the low will retrograde northwest across Labrador Monday night
keeping us in a gusty northwesterly flow around the southern edge of
its circulation. Some flurries will still be possible over the north
and west. Otherwise, the north will be mostly cloudy while Downeast
is partly cloudy in some downsloping.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Fairly quiet Tuesday/Wednesday, with high pressure slowly building
in from the west and becoming centered over the area Wednesday
night. Still a decent westerly breezy Tuesday to Wednesday, with
the stronger breeze on Tuesday. Generally partly to mostly
cloudy north, and mostly clear Downeast. Can`t rule out a few
snow showers in the north Tuesday, but nothing impactful.
Seasonably cool Tuesday/Wednesday with highs in the mid 30s to
low 40s and lows in the 20s. High confidence in the forecast
Tuesday/Wednesday with models in good agreement.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure overhead Wednesday night, which will likely be the
coolest night with lows in the mid teens to mid 20s. High
pressure then moves east with the next system on track mainly
for Friday afternoon and Friday night. Models/ensembles favor
rain over snow for this system, with roughly three quarters of
solutions favoring mostly rain over snow. That said, a few
solutions (about a quarter) have the trough amplifying enough to
spin up a decent Gulf of Maine/Canadian Maritime low which would
favor a snowier scenario, not too unlike what we are seeing
with the current weather system.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM:

Northern terminals: IFR to LIFR conditions tonight in snow. N
winds 5 to 10 kts shifting NW and increasing 10 to 15 kts by
Monday morning and lasting through Monday night. Gusts
increasing to 20 to 30 kts. Conditions lift to MVFR through the
day on Monday, potentially becoming low end VFR by Monday night.

Downeast terminals: Low end VFR conditions. Scattered snow
showers could lead to periods of MVFR late tonight after the dry
slot of the low system clears the area. Improvement to more
solid VFR through the day on Monday and into Monday night. W
winds 10 to 15 kts increasing to 15 to 20 kts with gusts
increasing to 25 to 30 kts.

SHORT TERM:
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with possible MVFR ceilings northern
terminals mainly in the morning. W wind 10-15 kts with gusts to
25 kts.

Tuesday Night and Wednesday...Mainly VFR, with W winds 5-10 kts.

Wednesday Night through Thursday Night...VFR. Variable winds 5
kts or less.

Friday...VFR early, with possible MVFR/IFR late. S wind
increasing to 10 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM:
A strong SCA for the intracoastal waters and a gale warning for
the offshore waters will be up through Monday night for gusty
WNW winds. Gusts may briefly approach 35 kts on the
intracoastals, particularly in any heavier snow showers. Seas
will be up to 7 to 9 ft tonight and Monday, subsiding to 6 to 8
ft Monday night.

SHORT TERM: Gales could persist into early Tuesday, but then
winds/seas gradually decrease into Wednesday night, with very
quiet conditions Wednesday night through Thursday night. Next
shot at small craft or possibly gales comes late Friday into
early Saturday, but confidence is low.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Monday for MEZ001>006-
     010.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 1 AM Monday to 7 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ050-
     051.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ052.

&&

$$


Near Term...AES/MB
Short Term...TF
Long Term...TF
Aviation...AES/MB/TF
Marine...AES/MB/TF