542
FXUS61 KCAR 091042
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
642 AM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A trough of low pressure will slowly approach from the west
through the end of the week, followed by high pressure for the
weekend. Another front is expected to approach the area early
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
645 am update...
Have tweaked hourly temps this morning as portions of the North
Woods dropped into the lower 40s with Estcourt Station having
dropped to 40F. Quite a ridge/valley split under clear skies and
light winds. No other changes needed this morning.

Prev discussion blo...
Cold front has shifted well offshore with sfc ridge over the area.
Clear skies and light winds has allowed river valley fog to develop
over the area. Ridge valley split is definitely pronounced with
Soucey Hill sitting at 60 and PQI at 53. Mins by morning will range
from the mid-40s over nwrn Aroostook to around 60 near the Bangor
Region and Downeast with marine layer eventually working it/s way
north.

Skies will gradually cloud up from the west later this afternoon as
moisture returns with high pressure shifting east and inverted trof
developing along the international border. Showers look to move into
portions of the Central Highlands after 18z but ridge axis likely to
hold on tight over remainder of the area.  Max temps look to climb
into the upr 70s/nr 80 over all areas with the exception of the
immediate coast and the higher terrain of Piscataquis County.

Upper level system slowly approaches from the west tonight though H5
ridge looks to hold tight thru 12z Thursday. As ridge begins to
flatten with s/wvs riding thru in the flow cannot rule out scattered
showers moving into wrn areas Thursday morning into the afternoon.
Caveat to how much coverage showers will bring is wave developing
along the frontal boundary over the waters impeding sfc moisture.
Therefore, expecting only light showers with total qpf thru the end
of Thursday being around 0.10 inches over the north and west.
Temperatures on Thursday will be just slightly cooler than
Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Thursday night...The vertically stacked low pressure system
will swing the trof into the region. The shortwave energy moving
into the area should push from W to E. Light rain is expected
to stay mainly to the north with less in the south.

Friday...The axis of the upper level trof is expected to move
across the region throughout the day. Rain should continue
throughout the day which will keep the temps in the 70s across
the region. Some elevated instability could cause isolated
thunderstorms to develop in the afternoon with the rain showers.

Friday night...The ridge will start to move into the area which
will gradually push out the shortwave. Rain showers should clear
out of the are after midnight. Clouds should stick around
through the night but gradually clear by the morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The weekend looks to be fairly calm with partly cloudy skies and
near normal temps as the ridge moves through New England. Models
are in better agreement with the next cold front moving into the
area by early next week. The GFS and Canadian are in better
agreement with a faster moving front than the Euro. The NBM has
higher rain shower chances on Monday. Decided to stick with the
NBM as a good middle ground. Model lose consistency by Tuesday
with the GFS showing a weak high pressure system while Euro and
Canadian show another cold front. Temps should be near normal.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR very early this morning as river valley fog and
fog along the coast brings restrictions to all but FVE and CAR.
Within the hour expect all sites to improve to VFR. Cannot rule out
IFR restrictions on the coast again late tonight.

Thursday may see conditions diminish to MVFR in showers,
possible storms, in the afternoon over most terminals.

SHORT TERM: Thursday night...MVFR/IFR conditions at all
terminals due to rain showers. Winds from the SE winds 5-10 kts.

Friday...MVFR/IFR conditions due to rain showers. Slight chance
for some scattered thunderstorms in far northern terminals.
Winds from the SE at 5-10 kts.

Friday night...VFR/MVFR conditions in light rain showers, that
will taper off overnight. Light winds from the S/SE.

SaturdaySaturday night...VFR conditions at southern terminals,
MVFR conditions possible in northern terminals in rain showers.
VFR conditions overnight. Slight chance for thunderstorms in
far northern terminals. Light winds from the S/SE.

Sunday... MVFR conditions in northern terminals from light rain
showers. Winds from the S at 5-10 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will remain well below small craft
levels today into Thursday. Seas will range from 2 to 4 feet
today before diminishing tonight. Visibilities may be reduced
in patchy fog into tonight.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas below Small Craft Advisory criteria
for the rest of the week. Seas stay at or below 3 ft over the
outer waters, and at or below 2 ft for the inner waters.
Easterly winds at 5-10 kts on Thursday, shifting to southerly by
Friday. Potential for rain showers Thursday into Friday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Buster
Short Term...LaFlash
Long Term...LaFlash
Aviation...Buster/LaFlash
Marine...Buster/LaFlash