703
FXUS61 KCAR 170609
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
209 AM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure slowly builds in today while a low tracks
southeast of Nova Scotia. The high builds overhead tonight
through Saturday night, then slowly slides to the east through
Sunday night. A complex storm system moves through the area
Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A ridge of high pressure will continue to increase its influence
over the forecast area today. As the previous low pressure
system slowly moves eastward and away from the region, the
pressure gradient aloft will slowly decrease. A 30 kt LLJ will
gradually mix out through the morning, and gusty winds 20 to 30
mph will begin to diminish into this afternoon, with winds
becoming light and variable tonight. Skies will also begin to
gradually clear through the day, becoming clear or almost clear
overnight tonight. With ideal radiational cooling conditions
tonight, temperatures may quickly drop, falling into the mid to
20s up to around freezing across the north, and into the upper
30s Downeast. This could lead to patchy frost development down
through the Bangor region and Upper Penobscot valley, though if
temperatures fall just another degree or two more over the
Interior Downeast region, frost could very well develop here as
well.

Dry weather and mostly clear skies continue into the day on
Saturday, along with light winds. This will aid in temperatures
rebounding into the upper 50s over most of the forecast area,
with parts closer to the coast reaching into the lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Saturday night: Surface ridging remains in place for the night
allowing for early clearing. The approaching cold front should
gradually increase cloud cover throughout the night. In
addition, winds should switch to a southerly flow, bringing
temps to the upper 30s, especially along the coast and higher
terrain.

Sunday: The warm front moves to the north as the low pressure
system and the cold front move north. This should make for
mostly sunny skies and temps increasing into the 60s across the
region. As pressure gradients tighten, S winds should increase
making for a breezy day.

Sunday night: The cold front moves closer to the region. The NBM
was more aggressive with the progression of the rain, so pushed
the start of the rain back to Monday morning. Otherwise, expect
a cloudy night with temps in the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Models are in good agreement with the timing of the rain
starting Monday afternoon. However, the most recent model runs
lose consistency with track of the center of the low pressure
system. This track should dictate the amount of rainfall for the
region. This rain should continue through Tuesday. Another low
pressure system is expected to move into the northeast by the
middle of the week, though models are inconsistent with the
track and timing of the system. Temps should be near normal.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Generally MVFR conditions across all terminals early
this morning will begin to scatter out through the morning,
becoming VFR by this afternoon. N to NW winds 10 to 15 kts
gusting 20 to 25 kts early will gradually decrease through the
day, with gusts tapering off by tonight and winds becoming light
overnight tonight. Light and variable winds and SKC conditions
continue into the day on Saturday.

SHORT TERM: Saturday night: VFR. NW winds 5 to 10 kts.

Sunday: Generally VFR. Cigs will begin to fall towards MVFR Sun
night. S winds 5 to 10 kts.

Monday: MVFR in rain. S/SE winds at 5-10 kts with gusts 15-20
kts possible during the day.

Monday night-Tuesday: MVFR/IFR in rain showers. E winds 5 to 10
kts.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Gusts up to 35 kts on the coastal waters will linger
a few more hours this morning, prior to decreasing to 25 to 30
kts through the rest of the day. The intracoastal waters will
begin gusting 25 to 30 kts early this morning and should
decrease below small craft advisory levels by mid morning. Seas
4 to 6 ft will continue on the coastal waters until tonight,
when all seas in our area fall to 2 to 4 ft. Conditions likely
below SCA criteria through the day on Saturday.

SHORT TERM: A brief period of small craft winds will return
Monday morning, but overall winds will remain less than 25 kts
through the period. Seas 3 to 5 feet becoming 4 to 6 feet
Monday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for ANZ050-051.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
     ANZ052.

&&

$$


Near Term...AES
Short Term...ARL
Long Term...ARL
Aviation...AES/ARL
Marine...AES/ARL