Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
402 FXUS61 KCAR 021429 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1029 AM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... - (AM Update): Updated aviation discussion for the 12z TAFs. - Confidence is low on thunderstorm development today. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Scattered to isolated afternoon showers, along with possibly a rumble of thunder this afternoon across Downeast. 2) Much warmer Wednesday through Friday, with two dry days in a row area wide Wednesday and Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Scattered to isolated afternoon showers, along with possibly a rumble of thunder this afternoon across Downeast. KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... A weak low pressure system will close off today and start to track SE. The low will develop a weak cold front across the south. Upper air model soundings indicate 2 different scenarios. The first scenario follows the RAP model where the cold front develops slower, thus the onshore marine flow collides with the front. This creates showers and thunderstorms over the Bangor Region and Interior Downeast that progress south throughout the afternoon. The second scenario follows the NAM model where the cold front develops faster, thus the onshore marine flow collides with the front closer to Coastal Downeast and the waters. Nevertheless, there will be instability with this front, so cannot rule out isolated thunderstorms. However, confidence is low, so did not include storms in the forecast. In addition, models indicate very dry air ahead of the front, which could inhibit the development of any showers or the majority of rain would fall as virga. KEY MESSAGE 2...Much warmer Wednesday through Friday, with two dry days in a row areawide Wednesday and Thursday. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Ridging begins to build in on Wednesday as high pressure settles into the Midwest. Daytime highs will climb to near 80 on Wednesday and well into the 80s on Thursday over inland areas. With onshore flow expected each afternoon, the immediate coast and outer islands should remain in the 60s and lower 70s. Cold front will bring clouds and showers to the north on Friday but temps will still be able to rise into the 70s. Interior Downeast fcst to climb into the lower 80s for Friday. Rain returns to the region Friday afternoon. && .AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Today...VFR. NW winds 5-10 kts with gusts to 15-20 kts this afternoon. Tonight-Wednesday...VFR. Light and variable winds tonight, then W winds around 5 kts Wednesday. Wednesday night-Thursday night...VFR. WSW winds 5-10kts, gusting to 20kts Thursday afternoon Friday...Mainly VFR, possible MVFR Aroostook terminals in showers late afternoon/early evening hours. WNW winds 5-10kts. Friday night-Saturday...VFR/MVFR in rain showers. Light N winds Friday night, becoming NE 5-10kts Saturday. && .MARINE... Winds and seas will remain below SCA levels today, tonight, and Wednesday. No headlines anticipated Wednesday night through Saturday. SW winds Thursday becoming N Friday night. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...21/ARL/MWS AVIATION...21/ARL