Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
390 FXUS61 KCAR 271522 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1122 AM EDT Tue Oct 27 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... - Updated with expiration of small craft advisory over the marine zones - Lowered low temperatures for Wednesday AM with the NBM 10th percentile in the deeper colder valleys in Northern Maine. - Lowered afternoon dew points for Today and Wednesday with continued dry airmass in place. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Generally dry weather through next Sunday. Drought conditions will worsen. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Generally dry weather through next Sunday. Drought conditions will worsen. KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Dry weather looks to persist through the end of this weekend. Over the past 24 hours, models have remained very unimpressive with rain totals for the Thursday night to Friday AM cold front, and backed off on any rain chances for Saturday night into Sunday. The next cold front, expected to move through Thursday night into Friday morning, will be much like its predecessors: generally dry, with any localized rain amounts being less than 0.10 inch. Quiet, dry weather with temperatures fairly close to average are in store for the weekend. As said before, any rain chances should hold off until Sunday night at the earliest. Models are in pretty good agreement on dry weather through Sunday, but disagree significantly after Sunday on when/if any rain comes. Ensembles are showing a good likelihood a storm system will be near the region with significant precipitation, however exact placement will determine if any rain occurs in the CWA. Otherwise, the dry conditons is bad news for the ongoing water resources drought impacting the state. Much of Northern Maine, Central Highlands and Eastern Downeast Maine are experiencing only 50-75% of normal precipitation over the last 30 days. While in the last 14 days areawide is less than 90% of normal with Northern Maine. Overall, 30 day Standardized Precipitation Index blend keeps the Northern 2/3rd of the CWA in the Moderate to Severe Dryness category with portions of the Upper St. John Basin now dipping into the Extreme Dryness category. There is 38 USGS streamflow gages across the CWA which remain dismal, with 25 out of the 38 ranked Much Below Normal (<10th percentile). USGS Groundwater sites continue to show struggling groundwater conditions, Clayton Lake is at Record Low (deep) conditions on record (35 year POR). Millinocket, Kenduskeag, Hadley Lakes and Calais all reporting Below to Much Below Normal conditions. Fort Kent is very low end of Normal conditions approaching slipping down into Below Normal conditions. Therefore, the US Drought Monitor continues the entire CWA in at least Moderate Drought with 58% of the CWA in Severe Drought, this has the potential to worsen with continued precipitation deficits. See the latest NWS Caribou Drought Information Statement for more drought details. && .AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 12z This Morning...VFR. FEW250 south terms and FEW-SCT 050-060 across northern terms. N-NW winds 10-15 knots with gusts up to around 20 knots. 30kt LLWS at BGR. Today...VFR. N-NW winds 10-15 knots with gusts 15-25 knots. Tuesday night-Wednesday night...VFR. WSW winds 5kts. Thursday...VFR. SW 5-15kts. Thursday night-Friday...VFR/MVFR with chance rain showers north. SW 5-15kts becoming NW 10-20kts. Friday night-Saturday...VFR. NW 5-15kts && .MARINE... Winds below SCA on the Intra-Coastal Waters and wind gusts generally 30kt or less and seas 4-5ft on the 25-60nm waters today. Winds relax to generally less than SCA conditions and 20-25kt on the 25-60nm waters. Conditions diminish through Thursday morning with southwest winds increasing to marginal SCA levels over the coastal and outer waters into Friday morning. Seas increase to 5ft over the coastal waters and 6ft over the outer waters during this time before dropping Friday morning. NW winds Fri night-Sat likely less than 25 kts. Minimal fog on the waters through next weekend. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AES/JS AVIATION...JS