470
FXUS62 KCHS 170526
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
126 AM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Atlantic high pressure will continue to build across the
Southeast through the week. A cold front could approach the
region late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Isolated showers have shifted over the GA Atlantic waters late
tonight. The hourly PoPs and wx will be adjusted to keep any
convection over the waters through the next several hours.
Otherwise, conditions across the forecast area will feature
mostly clear sky and steady southwest winds/

In general, low temps will range in the low-mid 70s inland to
upper 70s/around 80 along the beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Mid level ridge will extend across the Southeast through much of the
period, with a trough approaching late. At the surface, the forecast
area will remain on the western periphery of high pressure. Large
scale forcing for ascent is lacking so convection will largely be
driven by daytime heating and mesoscale boundaries such as the sea
breeze. Coverage will remain fairly limited with PoPs generally 20-
30% for Tuesday and Wednesday, and 30-40% for Thursday. High
temperatures will peak in the low to mid 90s away from the coast,
with humidity making it feel even hotter. Heat indices stay below
Heat Advisory criteria.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mid level ridge weakens Thursday night into Friday as a shortwave
passes across the mid-Atlantic states. A weak front will approach
the region, but it will likely stall in the vicinity and eventually
wash out. Ridging is expected to build over the eastern US over the
weekend and early next week. Isolated to scattered diurnally-driven
showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day. High
temperatures in the low to mid 90s away from the immediate coast
will combine with elevated humidity to yield heat indices mainly in
the 100-105 range most afternoons. As it stands now, conditions
remain shy of Heat Advisory criteria, but it will be something to
watch.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
6Z TAFs: VFR conditions with southwest winds through the TAF
period. Winds could become gusty during the afternoon hours,
especially at KJZI. It is possible that isolated showers or
thunderstorms may develop along the sea breeze near KSAV late
this afternoon, coverage too limited to highlight in the TAF at
this time.

Extended Aviation Forecast: Brief flight restrictions are possible
in showers and thunderstorms each day, mainly in the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: Expect wind/sea conditions to remain below Small Craft
Advisory levels through the night with the Atlantic ridge in
place. South/southwest winds in the 10-15 kt range could occasionally
gust up to 20 kt. Seas will range between 2-4 ft, slowly subsiding
after midnight.

Tuesday through Saturday: Marine conditions are expected to stay
below Small Craft Advisory criteria through the period. Southerly
flow will persist with speeds generally 15 knots or less, except a
bit higher along the land/sea interface and Charleston Harbor each
afternoon with the sea breeze. Seas will average 2-3 feet, with some
occasional 4 footers in the outer portions of the waters.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DPB/NED
SHORT TERM...ETM
LONG TERM...ETM
AVIATION...NED
MARINE...DPB/ETM