555
FXUS62 KCHS 010616
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
116 AM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
All sections have been updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Minor coastal flooding is possible expected along portions of
the South Carolina coast early this afternoon.

- 2) Breezy conditions with somewhat unsettled weather possible
today into Monday. Mild temperatures expected through midweek, then
a cold front should bring at least scattered showers on Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Minor coastal flooding is possible along portions of
the South Carolina coast early this afternoon.

At high tide early this morning, the Charleston Harbor tide gage
indicated a tidal departure of 0.95 ft. Gusty northeast winds should
continue along the Charleston County coast through the day. The
tidal departure headed to the high tide at 1:04 PM should remain at
or above 0.87 ft, necessary for minor coastal flooding. The water
level is forecast to crest between 6.9 to 7.1 ft MLLW, minor coastal
flooding begins at 7.0 ft MLLW.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Breezy conditions with somewhat unsettled weather
possible today into Monday. Mild temperatures expected through
midweek, then a cold front should bring at least scattered showers
on Thursday.

This morning, regional radar composite indicated several large areas
of light rain across GA ahead of amplifying H5 shortwave. In
addition, another patch of showers over the outer GA/SC waters was
tracking toward shore, developing within a inverted sfc trough.
Based off of radar trends and HREF and REFS guidance, scattered to
numerous showers may develop across SE GA and portions of SC this
morning, then gradually decreasing in coverage this afternoon. At
the sfc, ridging high pressure will likely maintain a 3-4 mb
pressure gradient across the forecast area today. Northeast winds
should remain between 10 to 15 mph with gusts between 20 to 25 mph,
highest along the coast. Given the rounds of showers, thick mid to
high clouds, and northeast winds, high temperatures should favor
values in the mid 70s.

Tonight, showers should continue across the nearshore and outer
Atlantic waters overnight. BKN to OVC mid and high clouds and steady
northeast winds should favor low temperatures in the mid 50s inland
to the low to mid 60s along the coast.

Extended: High pressure lingers overhead Monday before drifting
eastward over the Atlantic Tuesday into the middle of the week. A
coastal trough is expected to develop just off the GA/SC coast and
provide sufficient convergence to generate showers. This shower
activity will likely favor the GA coast through Monday, with
coverage then gradually spreading across the entire coastline
Tuesday into Wednesday as the parent high slips to the east and
allows the trough to attempt to push onshore. Nonetheless, do not
expect to see much in the way of impactful accumulations. Rather,
will likely see most places only receive a few hundredths to a tenth
of an inch at best.

With a pinched gradient in place, will also see breezy northeasterly
winds continue, with gusts between 20 to 25 mph possible each
afternoon and evening, especially along the coast. Afternoon highs
during this time should remain seasonal, with temperatures in the
mid 70s Monday rising into the upper 70s to lower 80s by midweek.

Model certainty wanes heading into the latter half of the week, as
guidance differs on how the upper level pattern will evolve. Most
showcase a fairly progress trough moving eastward toward the
Atlantic, though timing and the location of the moisture axis could
still vary a bit in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Prior to the 6Z TAFs, rounds of MVFR ceilings have passed over KSAV.
However, based on satellite trends and adjacent observations, it
appears that the restrictive ceilings have moved away of the KSAV
terminal. However, near term guidance indicates that a coastal
inverted trough may developed during the predawn hours and drift
inland over SE GA. This trough may bring patches of light showers
over or near KSAV between 9 to 14Z, possibly accompanied with
periods of restrictive ceilings. After sunrise and the onset of
mixing, northeast winds are forecast to strengthen to 10 to 15 kts
with gusts around 20 kts. The most frequent gusts should occur over
KJZI, with lesser winds over KSAV and KCHS. Wind gusts should come
to an end early this evening, with steady northeast winds around 10
kts remaining through the remainder of the TAF period.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Breezy northeasterly winds continue through
Monday, along with rain chances and the potential for periodic
flight restrictions.

&&

.MARINE...
Today through Tonight: At the sfc, ridging high pressure will likely
maintain a 3-4 mb pressure gradient across the forecast area today
and tonight. Northeast winds should generally remain between 15 to
20 kts and gusts between 25 to 30 kts through the near term. As a
result, wave heights should remain between 5 to 8 ft. Small Craft
Advisories will remain in effect outside the Charleston Harbor.
Conditions could approach Small Craft wind conditions in the Harbor
today, but is forecast to remain just below criteria.

Monday Onward: Frequent gusts into the 25-30 knot range are expected
into Monday, along with seas in the 5-7 ft range. These conditions
will support an extended period of Small Craft Advisories. Winds
should gradually diminish Tuesday into Wednesday as the gradient
relaxes. However, seas will remain elevated enough to keep the
advisories going through Tuesday night. By Wednesday night and
Thursday, winds will diminish even more as a cold front approaches
from the west.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ360-362-
     364.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for AMZ384.

&&

$$

NED/SST