111
FXUS62 KCHS 112320
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
720 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Coastal low pressure will linger through Sunday before shifting
northeast while high pressure remains inland.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
This evening: Radar imagery and satellite imagery show that a
bit of a dry slot is working its way into the shield of
precipitation that we have been dealing with all day. Steady
rains continue across eastern Charleston and all of Berkeley
counties, but the rest of the area is just seeing a few isolated
showers. Water vapor imagery shows this dry air continuing to
advance northward, particularly in the mid-levels, and it will
be interesting to see what affect this has on the forecast
through the night. Model guidance suggests that the steady
stratiform rain will spread back in from the east and likely
fill back in across much of southeast SC by the early morning
hours. While rainfall has been steady for much of the day,
hourly rates have not been particularly impressive. Rain gauges
suggest that in the heaviest areas, hourly rates have topped out
in the 0.1-0.2" range. So, even if rain fills back in, we aren`t
anticipating significant additional rainfall amounts. Through
sunrise Sunday, the highest amounts will be across eastern
portions of the Tri-County, with 0.50-0.75" possible. Further to
the west, amounts will certainly be lighter. Northerly winds
will remain gusty through the night with frequent gusts into the
20-25 mph range. Temperatures will not drop much from their
current values, with lows only dipping into the low 50s in most
areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The deep closed upper low over southern Georgia will transition
to an open trough late Sunday, then gradually lift ENE through
Monday. The associated surface low will move to a position just
off the NC Outer Banks by Sunday afternoon. Continued moist
isentropic ascent will maintain overcast skies and occasional
light to moderate rain through Sunday afternoon. Cold air
advection will keep temps well below normal.

Drier air and subsidence as an upper ridge builds east should
finally scour out the clouds and precip by late Sunday night.
Monday and Tuesday should be dry with decreasing cloudiness.
Temps will rise several degrees each day, but likely remain a
bit below normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Deep layered ridging will maintain dry conditions and moderate
temperatures a couple degrees below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The 00z TAF period begins with widespread low MVFR to IFR
ceilings, with some break in the rainfall at KCHS, KJZI, and
KSAV. Guidance suggests that ceilings could actually lift into
the MVFR range through the early morning hours before dropping
back to IFR. Light rain should also fill back in as well, though
visibilities aren`t expected to get very low. Northerly winds
will remain gusty through the night while gradually turning more
northwesterly with time. Guidance suggests that IFR ceilings
could linger through the entire day tomorrow, but confidence
isn`t particularly high. Improvement should first come at KSAV,
then gradually spread to KCHS and KJZI late in the period.

Extended Aviation Outlook: MVFR or lower ceilings likely to
persist into Sunday evening/night before returning to VFR. Gusty
NE winds expected on Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through tonight: Northerly winds of 25-30 kt with gusts to
35-40 kt will persist tonight as low pressure passes east of the
coastal waters. Gale Warnings remain in place for all legs,
except Charleston Harbor were a Small Craft Advisory for wind
20-25 kt was maintained. Seas will max out early this evening,
ranging from 5-11 ft nearshore waters and 10-13 ft over the
Georgia offshore waters.

Monday through Thursday: Gusty NE winds will continue on
Sunday, though speeds should start to decrease as the coastal
low moves northeast and the gradient begins to relax. Marine
headlines could persist as long as Monday night for wind gusts
and/or seas.

Rip Currents: Strong northeast winds and steep seas will
support a High Risk of rip currents at all beaches through
Sunday.

High Surf: Offshore winds will limit the surf potential along
the beaches through tonight. NWPS breaking wave guidance has
been running a tad too high especially when compared to coastal
webcams this afternoon. The risk for breakers of 5+ look
greatest along the Charleston County beaches.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The risk for additional coastal flooding will continue for
coastal portions of Charleston and Colleton Counties for high
tide Sunday afternoon. Levels there are expected to peak in the
upper range of the minor flood stage (7.3-7.5 ft MLLW). A
Coastal Flood Advisory is likely. Tides at Fort Pulaski are
expected to peak just below the minor flood stage of 9.5 ft
MLLW, however it could be close.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through Sunday evening for GAZ117-119-
     139-141.
SC...High Risk for Rip Currents through Sunday evening for SCZ048>051.
     Lake Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for SCZ045.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for SCZ050.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ330.
     Gale Warning until 6 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ350-374.
     Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ352-354.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...