Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC
032 FXUS62 KCHS 231729 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 1229 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will prevail early this week, before a cold front impacts the area mid week. High pressure and dry weather is expected to return for Thanksgiving through late week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... High pressure will continue to expand across the region through tonight, allowing for quiet and dry weather. Main issue for tonight will be the fog potential. Most guidance is consistent in indicating fog developing after midnight, with highest probabilities over southeast Georgia counties. Patchy to areas of fog were included in the forecast. Some dense fog cannot be ruled out. Otherwise, low temperatures will range from around the mid 40s inland to low/mid 50s along the coast. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Mid level ridging will pass across the Southeast on Monday, before transitioning offshore Tuesday in advance of the next trough. At the surface, the center of high pressure initially over the mid-Atlantic states will gradually shift off the coast. Most areas will stay dry, although a few showers are possible on Tuesday. Temperatures will lean on the warmer side of normal, especially on Tuesday when some areas in southeast Georgia possibly reach the low 80s. A large mid level trough will move into the eastern CONUS on Wednesday, helping to drive a cold front to the region. The forecast area will be in the warm sector much of the day, allowing highs to once again peak well above seasonal norms in the upper 70s to around 80. The main question will be the precip coverage. Most guidance would hint at a diminishing precip trend as the front progresses into the area. Ensemble means, and even the 75th percentile, are less than a couple tenths of an inch of rainfall. The front should pass offshore Wednesday evening, bringing an end to any rainfall. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Dry and noticeably cooler weather is expected for the entire period as high pressure builds into the area. Could see low temperatures fall to around freezing or below over the far interior both Thursday and Friday nights, but as a reminder, the local frost/freeze program has ended due to the widespread freeze earlier in the month. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Main concern for the valid TAF period is the potential for fog late tonight towards daybreak Monday. Guidance is pretty consistent in indicating fog developing, with highest probabilities for lower restrictions over KSAV. Have opted for no lower than MVFR at all sites for now, but trends will need to be monitored. Extended Aviation Outlook: Prevailing VFR. && .MARINE... Through Tonight: No marine concerns through tonight. High pressure will continue to expand into the area. Northeast winds will average less than 15 knots with seas 1-2 feet. Monday through Friday: High pressure initially over the mid- Atlantic states will shift offshore towards the middle of the week. This will allow northeast winds to eventually turn more southerly. Speeds should average 15 knots or less with seas no higher than 2-4 feet. A cold front will approach from the west on Wednesday, crossing the waters Wednesday night. Winds will increase as a result, bringing some potential for a Small Craft Advisory, primarily over the outer Georgia waters, but it seems marginal at this point. High pressure will build in for late week. Pressure gradient remains fairly tight, so winds will remain elevated Thursday into Friday. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION... MARINE...