Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC

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000
FXUS62 KCHS 150230
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1030 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A trough of low pressure will persist inland, while high
pressure remains over the Atlantic through Saturday. A weak
cold front will then pass through the area Sunday into Sunday
night. A trough will redevelop over the region during the
middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
The remnants of thunderstorms are moving over the Charleston
Tri-County late this evening, and they will continue to move to
the NE, out of our area. Behind this, little to no
precipitation is occurring. Though, it`s August and we can`t
rule out a brief, isolated shower or thunderstorm overnight.
Lows will generally be in the 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
The upper trough that has lingered just west of the area for
several days will begin to push east on Saturday, moving
offshore by Sunday night. This will push a weak cold front
through the area Sunday and Sunday night. Plenty of moisture
will remain in place through the weekend which, combined with a
series of embedded shortwaves, will produce numerous showers
and thunderstorms. PWATs will drop precipitously by Monday
behind the front with values below 1.5" in most locations. A
weak lee trough will exist on Monday and a sea breeze will
develop in the afternoon, so scattered showers and tstms are
still expected albeit with lower coverage than over the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A return to more unsettled weather is expected during the long term
period. The forecast area will become positioned between a mid level
trough to the west and ridging to the east. This set-up will bring
deep moisture and a series of shortwaves back into the area.
Meanwhile, another surface trough will take shape over the region by
the middle of the week. Higher than normal rain chances are
expected, especially Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures will be
near climatology.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
We can`t rule out a brief shower overnight. However, the potential
is too low to mention in either TAF. On Saturday, another round
of convection is expected. Though, it could be late in the day
when it reaches KCHS, so we held off on any mention there.
Given the earlier convective initiation across southeast GA
during the last several days, we have VCTS at KSAV after 18Z.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restrictions possible in
showers and thunderstorms each day, mainly in the afternoon and
evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: Expect elevated south/southwest winds due to an
enhanced pressure gradient between offshore high pressure and
inland low pressure. Winds could gust near 20 kt at times with
seas up to 4 ft.

Saturday through Wednesday: The southwest gradient will be
slightly enhanced through the weekend as a cold front approaches
from the west and Atlantic high pressure persists offshore. A
relatively weak pressure pattern will then exist early next week
behind the front. The primary marine concern will continue to
be the scattered showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...ETM
AVIATION...JRL
MARINE...JRL/RJB


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