Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC

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FXUS62 KCHS 282247
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
647 PM EDT Sat May 28 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will prevail through most of next week. A cold
front could approach the region late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Early Saturday evening: Isolated/brief showers continued to
develop and dissipate along the progressive sea breeze boundary
across parts of Charleston, Dorchester and Berkeley counties.
We expect this sparse coverage, diurnal convection to cease
after dark. Otherwise, forecasts remain on track and required
only minor adjustments to hourly parameters. Weak high pressure
will persist through tonight. Decent low- level moisture in
place and diminishing winds overnight could allow patchy fog to
develop away from the coast. Low temperatures will range from
the middle 60s inland to the lower 70s along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A weak upper low over the southeast U.S. on Sunday will gradually
dissipate. Later Sunday through Tuesday, a mid/upper level ridge
centered over the mid Atlantic states will dominate. Deep layer
moisture will gradually increase through the period, mainly south of
the Savannah River. Have kept slight chance to chance showers and
thunderstorms each afternoon/early evening, mainly over the GA and
well inland SC zones. Temperatures expected to be a few degrees
above normal, generally around 90 well inland, and lower to mid 80s
near the coast. Lows will be mild too, in the mid to upper 60s
inland, and lower 70s coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A deep layer ridge is shown by all models to setup over the entire
southeast U.S. through much of the work week. This is expected to
keep rain chances below 15% Wednesday and Thursday, with only
isolated showers and thunderstorms possible, but too low to mention
in the forecast. By Friday and Saturday, model indicate that a weak
upper trough and associated surface front could approach the region
from the northwest, but likely stall near or just north of the area.
These features may bring better deep layer moisture, and therefore
higher chances for convection/rainfall. Have continued low end
chance PoPs for both Friday and Saturday, which is actually close to
climo. Temperatures expected to remain above normal. Highest
generally in the lower to mid 90s well inland, and mid to upper 80s
closer to the coast. However, with surface dewpoints mixing down
into the lower to mid 60s inland and near 70 coast each day, heat
indices are expected to remain below 100.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR through early Sunday morning. Decent low-level moisture in
place and light winds overnight could support MVFR fog at the SC
terminals. VFR Sunday.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Generally low probabilities for
flight restrictions with mainly isolated afternoon showers and
thunderstorms possible, especially Tuesday over KSAV.

&&

.MARINE...
A 10-15 knots south/southeast sea breeze will give way to
southerly flow with speeds at or below 10 kt and seas at or
below 3 ft through tonight.

No highlights expected through the period. High pressure will
generally remain centered over the northern half of the waters,
keeping more variable winds 15 kts or less over the SC waters and
southeast winds over the GA waters. Higher winds likely near the
coast each afternoon with the seabreeze, possibly with gusts near 20
kts. Isolated mainly morning and early afternoon showers/thunderstorms,
especially GA waters where deep layer moisture will be more plentiful.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JRL/SPR
SHORT TERM...RFM
LONG TERM...RFM
AVIATION...JRL/RFM/SPR
MARINE...JRL/RFM/SPR


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