773
FXUS62 KCHS 160551
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
151 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend into the region this week. A cold
front could impact the area Sunday night or early Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The mid-levels consist of a strong trough off the East Coast and
a strong ridge over the MS Valley Region. This is bringing NNW
flow overhead. At the surface, a dry cold front is located
south of our area this morning, while High pressure is centered
over the Great Lakes Region. The High will shift towards the
Central Appalachians by late tonight, with it`s periphery
continuing to stretch into our region. Expect dry conditions
with some passing clouds. Highs will range from the lower to
middle 70s across the Charleston Tri-County, to the lower 80s
near the Altamaha River and vicinity. The combination of clear
to mostly clear skies and very light to calm winds will lead to
plenty of radiational cooling tonight. Lows will range from the
upper 40s far inland, to the mid 50s along our SC coast and the
mid 60s along our GA coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure will remain the dominant surface feature through
Saturday. Aloft, a mid level ridge will gradually shift
overhead. This pattern will favor dry and quiet conditions.
Highs will span the 70s on Friday, coolest over the Charleston
tri-county. Temperatures will then trend to normal for Saturday.
Lows Friday night will mainly be in the 50s, although some
spots over the northern interior could drop into the upper 40s.

A mid level trough will shift towards the East Coast on Sunday.
At the surface, offshore high pressure extending over the area
will begin to weaken as a cold front approaches the area. The
front and associated rain chances should stay west of the area
through the daylight hours. It will be the warmest day of the
set, with highs forecast to be in the upper 70s to mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A cold front is expected to push through the area early in the
period, Sunday night or early Monday. Guidance has trended
drier, with the threat for rainfall pretty minimal. PoPs are no
higher than 20%. High pressure will briefly return thereafter,
before another front possibly impacts the area towards the
middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
06Z TAFs: VFR.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR conditions are expected at the
CHS, JZI, and SAV terminals through Saturday. Brief flight
restrictions are possible at all terminals due to showers
associated with a passing cold front Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Today and Tonight: A dry cold front is located south of our
area this morning, while High pressure is centered over the
Great Lakes Region. The High will shift towards the Central
Appalachians by late tonight, with it`s periphery stretching
into our region. NNE winds will prevail, perhaps increasing
slightly during the evening hours. Based on buoy observations
and model data, adjusted the Small Craft Advisory for the outer
GA waters so it`s now in effect for this evening and the
overnight. This is for 6 ft seas, mainly across the far eastern
portion of these waters.

Friday through Tuesday: Northeast winds will subside on Friday
as the pressure gradient eases. Some 6 foot seas could linger
over the far outer Georgia waters, where a Small Craft Advisory
will remain in effect until late Friday evening. Winds will veer
around to the south on Saturday as high pressure shifts
offshore. A cold front will then approach from the west Sunday,
likely passing through the waters Sunday night or early Monday.
A few gusts near 25 knots will be possible ahead of the front,
but it appears pretty marginal at this point. High pressure will
return for Monday and Tuesday with no additional marine
concerns.

Rip Currents: A dry cold front is located south of our area
this morning. NNE winds behind this front along with 3 ft swell
around 9 seconds supports a Moderate Risk of rip currents for
our Georgia beaches through Friday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a threat for minor coastal flooding with the late
afternoon high tide cycles through Friday along the Charleston
and Colleton county coasts, as gusty northeast winds are
expected to drive up tidal departures. Current forecast keeps
tide levels on the lower end of minor flooding thresholds. The
risk should be lower as we head into the weekend as high
pressure shifts overhead and eventually offshore, and the wind
direction becomes less favorable.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM EDT Friday
     for AMZ374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...ETM
LONG TERM...ETM
AVIATION...ETM
MARINE...ETM