811
FXUS62 KCHS 071812
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
112 PM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal system will maintain unsettled weather into Monday,
then a cold and dry high pressure will build into the region. A
reinforcing cold front will move through Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Through Sunset: Showers will continue across portions of our
area, mainly SE GA and along the SC coast.

Tonight: The mid-levels will consist of a trough over the Lower
MS Valley in the evening. It`ll shift eastward, stretching from
the Great Lakes Region into the Deep South late tonight. This
will lead to WSW flow overhead. At the surface, areas of weak
Low pressure will develop off the East Coast of FL and in the
northeast Gulf during the evening, with a stationary front
connecting each. They`ll shift to the ENE through the night.
Meanwhile, a weakening cold front will quickly cross through our
area overnight, followed by troughing behind it. This complex
synoptic pattern will keep the highest moisture just of our
coast. However, there should be showers occurring early this
evening, especially along the coast. Most of them will shift
offshore later in the evening. Though, there could be remnant
showers through the night. QPF should be 0.25" or less around
McIntosh County and vicinity, with lower amounts further north
and inland. There will be plenty of moisture and low stratus,
so fog development is possible. Low temperature will generally
be in the lower to middle 40s, warmer at/near the beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Monday and Tuesday: As a broad upper-lvl trough gradually
shears eastward across southeastern Canada, a reinforcing
shortwave will march through the region on Monday. At the
surface, a front shall reside over portions of northern Florida
and extend into the Atlantic adjacent to the South Carolina
coastline. This pattern will yield north-northwesterly flow with
PWAT values ranging between 0.8 to 1.0". Expect light scattered
showers through Monday morning, and then likely taper off by
the afternoon with rainfall totals less than 0.10 inches. With
limited mid-lvl lapse rates and no appreciable CAPE, convection
remains negligible. Thereafter, a dry, cold front should push
through the region on Monday night and high pressure to build in
behind it. Expect lows to drop into the upper 20s across inland
southeast South Carolina and low to mid 30s elsewhere. This
pattern will result in quiet weather on Tuesday as skies
gradually clear in the morning. Despite the sun returning to the
sky, strong CAA will keep temperatures slightly below average
with highs in the low to mid 50s. It`ll be a couple degrees
colder than the previous night, with temperatures dropping into
the upper 20s across the interior counties and low to mid 30s
near the coastline.

Wednesday: As mid-lvl ridge shifts eastward into the Southeast,
strong subsidence will promote a quiet and rain-free forecast.
Also, increasing WAA will support a noticeable warm-up and yield
temperatures into the low to mid 60s. Expect winds to shift to
the southwest as high pressure situates itself across central
Florida. This will promote anticyclonic flow across the region
and allow overnight lows to be a tad warmer than the previous
nights.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At the surface, high pressure will continue to dominate the
forecast on Thursday and allow for another rain-free day. Clear
skies and s southwesterly flow will yield temperatures in the
mid to upper 60s on Thursday. However, this quiet and warm
weather only lasts momentarily, as a reinforcing cold front is
expected to sweep across the region on Friday afternoon. This
will promote light rain showers on Friday ahead of the
approaching front. There`s moderate uncertainty pertaining to
this weekend as ensemble spread remains large. Cooler
temperatures will likely return this weekend following the
passage of the front.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
18Z TAFs: A frontal system is bringing multiple impacts to all
three TAF sites. Showers should impact KSAV through the
evening, but remain nearby KJZI and KCHS. The showers should end
late this evening. Model guidance has IFR prevailing at all of
the TAF sites through the end of the TAF time period.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Lingering periods of MVFR cigs with
occasional IFR cigs expected to persist through Monday night.
Expect improving conditions thereafter.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Sunset: No hazardous weather is expected.

Tonight: A frontal system will move through the waters. Expect
NE winds sustained around 10 kt this evening, becoming N and
increasing to 10-15 kt by daybreak Monday. Seas should average
2-3 ft withing 20 nm, and 3-4 ft for the GA waters beyond 20 nm.
Showers and low clouds could bring occasional reductions in
visibility. But dense sea fog is not expected.

Monday through Thursday: As a broad upper-lvl trough dominates
the forecast aloft, a reinforcing shortwave will march through
the region on Monday. At the surface, northwesterly flow will
persist as a cold front approaches the local waters. Expect wind
speeds to increase to 15-20 kts with periodic gusts of 24-25
kts on Monday night. Thereafter, winds will taper back and
remain light through mid-week, before a reinforcing cold front
approaches on Thursday night. Winds will shift to southwest as
high pressure situates itself across central Florida. Seas will
range from 3 to 5 ft with some 6 footers reaching into the the
nearshore Charleston and outer Georgia waters on Monday
afternoon. Therefore, a brief period of Small Craft Advisories
will be possible on Monday evening. Afterwards, the swell looks
to ease back as high pressure returns to the Atlantic waters on
Wednesday and conditions rapidly improve.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...