004
FXUS62 KCHS 011744
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
144 PM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool and dry high pressure will prevail through the weekend. A
low pressure system could impact the area early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Today: Surface high pressure is currently located near the Georgia/
South Carolina border this afternoon with temperatures quickly
warming into the mid 60s. The latest KCHS 01.12z sounding
revealed a PWAT of 0.33" (or near the moving min average for
this time of year). Looking at full mixing this afternoon, and
bringing the parcel down from the top of KCHS sounding mixed
layer would support high temperatures in the upper 60s. No
precipitation is expected.

Tonight: Weak surface high pressure will move off the Mid-Atlantic
coast overnight. As this occurs, a weak coastal trough will move
inland with stratocu moving inland (especially across SC where
boundary layer moisture is slightly higher). Any shower activity
that does develop, should remain offshore through sunrise Sunday.
Low temperatures are currently forecast to be in the low to mid 40s
inland, with upper 40s to lower 50s along the coast. However, how
far inland the coastal trough pushes is still uncertain and if
the trough holds up slightly near the coast, mid to upper 30s
will be likely inland.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
All global models show a closed upper low moving from western TN at
the beginning of the period, southeast across GA and offshore into
the Atlantic waters by Monday. This upper level low continues moving
east-southeast into the Atlantic on Tuesday as it weakens. Behind
this upper low, deep layer riding builds from the west by Monday and
Tuesday.

Rainfall chances are expected to increase by later Sunday into the
first half of Monday as the upper low moves across the area.
However, rainfall amounts are not expected to be particularly heavy,
with most models indicating that rainfall totals will be 0.5 inches
or less. The rain is expected to be more showery in nature, with
intensities in the light to possibly moderate at times. Thus, the
threat for any flooding seems minimal at this time. The highest
rainfall amounts are expected to be concentrated over the coastal
areas and much of our SC zones. However, unfortunately, the lowest
amounts look to be well inland, where ground conditions continue to
be very dry.

Temperatures are expected to continue slightly below normal through
this period. Highs generally in the upper 60s SC and lower 70s over
GA zones. All areas likely not making it out of the 60s Monday when
the most cloud cover and highest rainfall chances are expected. Lows
ranging from the mid 40s to around 50, except lower 50s closer to
the coast through the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A rather tranquil and dry weather pattern is still expected for
through the remainder of the work week. Models indicate zonal upper
flow will persist through much of the period, possibly becoming more
southwesterly by Friday ahead of the next developing upper level
trough over the central part of the country. At the surface, high
pressure remaining mostly over and north of the area. A weak front
may approach the region from the north later Thursday, but little/no
precip. expected. By Friday, the surface ridge will likely move just
offshore, allowing low level winds to veer to southwest.

High temperatures are expected to be near normal through at least
Thursday, then possibly above normal by Friday as low level winds
veer to southwest. However, given the relatively dry airmass, mostly
clear skies and light winds each night, lows expected to be near to
slightly below normal, generally in the 40s well inland, to lower
50s closer to the coast.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Today: All terminals are VFR as surface high pressure is located
near the South Carolina Georgia border this afternoon. Winds
generally less than 10 kt.

Tonight: VFR with surface high pressure quickly moving off of the
east coast of the United States. As this occurs, a coastal trough
will move inland with some VFR stratocu possibly moving inland
across KJZI/ KCHS.

Extended Aviation Forecast: VFR conditions expected to prevail
through the daytime on Sunday. Periodic flight restrictions
possible Sunday night through roughly Monday morning, then
improving conditions back to VFR later Monday afternoon into mid
week.


&&

.MARINE...
Today through tonight: Quiet conditions will prevail across the
local waters. Wind speeds will mostly top out around 10 knots,
but could get into the 10-15 knot range at times. Seas will
average 1-3 feet.

Sunday through Thursday: The biggest concern this period will
be the strength and placement of a coastal low pressure system.
Most models show more of a trough of low pressure vs a closed
circulation, and that trough is centered beyond 40 nm offshore.
This type of solution will translate to an increase in north-
northeast winds later Sunday, then possibly backing to north-
northwest early Monday through Monday night. Current guidance
keeps winds below SCA. However, seas could reach 5 to 7 feet
well offshore Monday night through the first part of Wednesday
as the system pulls away to the northeast and stronger high
pressure builds from the west-northwest. There is still quite a
bit of uncertainty with this forecast, but if trends continue,
SCAs may be needed for at least offshore waters for seas by
later Monday into Wednesday. Seas currently expected to fall
back below SCA levels later Wednesday through Thursday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Elevated tides are expected as we begin the work week due to
the upcoming full moon and perigee. We continue to monitor the
potential for coastal flooding with the morning high tides along
the entire southeast South Carolina and Georgia coasts. The
background astronomical tides will be the highest by the middle
of the week, when they reach minor flooding levels without any
contribution from wind. Coastal Flood Advisories may be needed,
especially by mid week. However, there is still considerable
uncertainty with how high the tides will reach since levels will
greatly depend on the wind direction. Most models, including
the national blended solution, are largely showing more
northerly, even somewhat north- northwest/offshore winds,
through at least Thursday. These wind directions would be less
conducive to pushing tide levels much higher than the base
astronomical levels. We will continue to monitor the latest
model trends.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Haines
SHORT TERM...RFM
LONG TERM...RFM
AVIATION...Haines/RFM
MARINE...Haines/RFM