384
FXUS61 KCLE 040756
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
356 AM EDT Fri Sep 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Confidence is increasing for another round of severe storms to
move west to east through the area late this morning and
afternoon. Damaging wind gusts are the primary concern.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Another round of strong to severe storms is possible late
this morning into the afternoon. The potential will be displaced
slightly further southwest compared to Thursday, largely
excluding far NE OH and NW PA.

2) Seasonable and dry weather is expected for much of the
holiday weekend. Unsettled weather may return by mid-next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
The latest satellite imagery reveals a potent shortwave moving
east through the Upper Midwest, resulting in a robust area of
mainly elevated convection just west of Lake Michigan early
this morning. Surface observations and the SPC mesoanalysis
depict a tight moisture gradient extending roughly NW to SE
along the southern flank of this convection from just north of
Milwaukee southeastwards towards the Mid-Atlantic Coast. The
latest radar imagery and trends suggest that this area of
convection may persist and become surface-based as it enters the
Lower Great Lakes region and Upper Ohio Valley later this
morning and early afternoon.

Damaging wind gusts appear to be the primary concern with this
feature, given a strong DCAPE gradient in place across the
region and anticipated line storm mode, though some instances of
large hail also cannot be ruled out, especially out ahead of
the complex. Given this, looking like an earlier time window
for the severe weather potential today, roughly between 10 AM
and 3 PM as storms generally move east to southeast, with the
area of concern encompassing more of Northwest and North-Central
Ohio rather than far Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania.

Attention then turns towards later this evening and overnight as
another round of nocturnal convection may develop across
Michigan and move east to southeast into the area, though quite
a bit of uncertainty remains regarding this potential. The
latest guidance does suggest that most of this activity would
remain elevated, though isolated large hail, gusty winds, and
heavy rain cannot be ruled out. The frontal boundary will
finally be pushed south through the area on Saturday with
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible, mainly
along and south of US-30. Severe weather is not expected at
this time.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
High pressure will begin to build south across the Great Lakes
late Saturday and persist into early next week. The latest
trends favor seasonable and mainly dry weather during this
timeframe with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s and less
humidity.

Will then begin watching the next system by mid-next week as
another upper-level ridge builds east across the Central and
Eastern CONUS, followed by the passage of a strong upper-level
trough moving east through the Upper Great Lakes. Shower and
thunderstorms chances will increase beginning Wednesday
afternoon and evening, with the potential continuing into
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Expecting MVFR/IFR stratus to develop overnight at most
terminals, but excluding FDY/MFD, and will have trouble eroding
this out with mixing into the daytime hours. Once again an
effort has been made to time some convective activity moving in
from the northwest, and have this in the 16-20Z time frame for
CLE/CAK eastward. Frontal boundary that has been lingering just
north of Lake Erie will finally push southward after 00Z
Saturday and through northern Ohio towards the Ohio River
Valley with high pressure building in from the north for
Saturday.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in rounds of showers/storms Friday
night through early Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Waves around a foot or less through today, followed by a cold
front coming through tonight/early Saturday. Winds then come
around to the northeast 10-20kts and wave heights increasing to
2-3ft Saturday through Sunday night in the wake of this cold
front. Winds become offshore/southeasterly late Monday through
Tuesday night with wave heights subsiding to a foot or less once
again.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kahn
AVIATION...26
MARINE...26