528
FXUS61 KCLE 141245
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
845 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A stalled front remains across the region today before pushing
south into the Ohio Valley on Sunday. Surface high pressure
briefly builds overhead from the north before the aforementioned
front lifts back north as a warm front Monday night into
Tuesday. The front will once again stall across the region
through mid-week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
8:35 AM Update...
Moderate rain continues across northern Ohio and Northwest
Pennsylvania, with very brief periods of heavy rain. There has
been a few rain measurements coming in the 2-3" range, which is
a pretty decent amount of rain. Increased PoPs significantly
through the next several hours to account for the expectation
for steady, moderate rain to continue across northern Ohio and
Northwest Pennsylvania before we lose the area of mid-level
confluence associated with the mid-level trough. No other
changes were made to the forecast.


Previous discussion...
Stalled front draped across the area will continue to impact
the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic regions through the near term.
The primary concern with the stalled boundary continues to be
heavy rainfall and localized flooding as PWATs are expected to
range between 1.7 and 1.9 inches, well above the 90th percentile
for mid- June, combined with weak cloud layer flow. HREF
neighborhood probabilities have a swath of higher QPF mainly
along and north of US-30 near the placement of the stalled
front. Peak hourly rates will likely occur this morning through
early afternoon with HREF 1hr maximum QPF amounts ranging
between 0.75 and 1.25 inches. Very isolated chance of diurnally
driven thunderstorms developing this afternoon and early evening
across southeastern zones. Not expecting any severe
thunderstorms given the lack of instability but some sub-severe
wet thunderstorm downbursts are possible in any stronger storm
that develops. Cloud cover will keep high temperatures in the
lower 70s today. Lows will settle in the low 60s tonight.

The front will begin to push south out of the region this
evening which will allow for showers to exit from northwest to
southeast through tonight. A brief surface high builds over the
region from the north on Sunday bringing dry weather for end
the near term period. Highs will be slightly warmer on Sunday as
they rise into the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A quasi-zonal mid level flow will continue into early next week. A
stubborn stationary frontal boundary will continue to be around to
start off the new week. On Monday, the stalled front will be near
the central Ohio area and bring a chance for scattered showers and
storms mainly in the afternoon. High temperatures Monday will range
from the upper 70s over northwest Pennsylvania to the lower 80s over
northwest Ohio. The frontal boundary will lift northward as a warm
front by Tuesday. With a moisture rich atmosphere on lingering
around Tuesday, POPs will increase for scattered showers and
thunderstorm during the afternoon. Tuesday`s afternoon high
temperatures will be a little warmer in the lower to middle 80s.
Overnight low temperatures will be warm as well in the lower to
upper 60s for early next week.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The middle of the week looks to remain somewhat unsettled with very
warm weather and chances for showers and thunderstorms. The area
will be south of a warm front that will be draped across southern
Ontario by the middle of next week. A shortwave trough will move
across the Northern Plains region into the Upper Midwest on
Wednesday. Scattered showers and storms will again be around
Wednesday with high temperatures into the lower to mid 80s. The
shortwave trough will track across the Great Lakes region on
Thursday dragging a cold front into the Ohio Valley. Thursday will
be the day with the highest POPs for showers and thunderstorms. High
temperatures will be held down in the upper 70s to lower 80s on
Thursday. Towards the end of next week, the weather pattern will
shift to a northwest flow in between an upper level trough to the
east and an upper level ridge to the west. A drier and seasonable
warm weather pattern is expected by the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
IFR to LIFR conditions continue across terminals early this
morning. The general trend is for LIFR ceilings to lift to IFR
through late this morning with IFR lifting to MVFR by this
afternoon and early evening. Some IFR cigs and MVFR visibilities
may return tonight across inland locations. Rain showers will
continue to impact terminals through this afternoon and early
evening before diminishing by tonight. Maintained VCTS mention
at KMFD/KCAK/KYNG where confidence, albeit fairly low, is
highest in any isolated thunderstorm this afternoon. By the end
of the TAF window ceilings may improve to high-end MVFR to low-
end VFR, especially closer to the lakeshore as high pressure
builds overhead from the north.

Generally northerly to northeasterly winds 5-10 knots will
continue through the TAF period with light and variable flow
anticipated across inland locations.

Outlook...Non-VFR expected with periodic showers and thunderstorms
this weekend through Wednesday, especially Sunday afternoon and
again on Tuesday through Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
A frontal boundary has become nearly stationary south of the lake
across central Ohio. Northeast winds 10 to 20 knots will be around
today into tonight. A Small Craft Advisory and Beach Hazard
Statement for rip currents also remain in effect today. Waves will
be 2 to 4 feet due to the persistent northeasterly flow.  Northeast
winds will continue through Sunday 5 to 15 knots. By Monday, the
northeast winds will weaken to 5-10 knots as the frontal boundary
shifts closer to southern Ohio. Winds will become south-southwest  5-
10 knots on Tuesday when a warm front pushes northward across the
lake. Southerly southwesterly winds will continue Wednesday and
Thursday 10 to 20 knots.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ007-
     009>012-089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for PAZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     LEZ143>149.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...13
NEAR TERM...13/Saunders
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...77
AVIATION...13
MARINE...77