000
FXUS61 KCLE 172312
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
712 PM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Southerly flow is in control to start the weekend as high
pressure departs to the east. Strengthening low pressure lifts
into the Great Lakes on Sunday, pulling a strong cold front
across the local area. The next low pressure and potent cold
front moves into the Great Lakes region on Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Some warm advection and moist isentropic lift aloft should
contribute to scattered showers across Northeast OH and
Northwest PA tonight into early Saturday. QPF amounts will be
light. Otherwise, it will be a mainly dry, cloudier, and milder
night with lows ranging from the 40s east to the 50s west.

Saturday will be the last very warm day for quite a while in
ongoing warm advection ahead of a cold front approaching from
the west. It will be a mainly dry day, though a chance for
showers and storms enters the forecast in Northwest Ohio by the
late afternoon or early evening hours as a pre-frontal trough
pushes into a weakly unstable airmass. Confidence in this
afternoon/evening convection along the pre-frontal trough in
Northwest Ohio is medium, as the airmass is still fairly dry
with skinny CAPE...but large-scale forcing will be beginning to
increase. If this convection plays out it should be fairly
weak, though with moderate flow aloft and inverted-v low-level
forecast soundings some gusty winds (40-50 MPH) can`t be ruled
out. Otherwise, highs will range from the 70s east to the lower
80s west on Saturday with south-southwest wind gusts increasing
to 20-30 MPH during the afternoon...strongest gusts out west.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The main focus for active weather remains the second half of
this weekend. Low pressure will lift out of the mid-Mississippi
Valley and into the Great Lakes Saturday night into Sunday,
dragging a strong cold front across the local area during the
day Sunday. Beneficial rain is expected to spread east across
the area Saturday night into Sunday, with gusty winds expected
just ahead of and then behind the cold front and departing low.
Some potential for a bit of low-topped convection persists along
the cold front, with an SPC Marginal Risk (level 1/5) in place
for almost the entire area on Sunday.

The synoptic setup remains unchanged from prior forecasts, with
a seasonably deep and sharp longwave trough expected to take on
a modest negative tilt Saturday night into Sunday while lifting
east-northeast towards the Great Lakes and Northeast. Guidance
is in better agreement today on a less-phased solution, with a
gradually deepening low lifting northeast through the Great
Lakes on Sunday. A secondary low will develop over the northern
Mid Atlantic and lift into the Great Lakes Sunday night into
Monday. We seem to be settling on a middle ground solution of
sorts in which a higher-end synoptic wind or severe weather
threat is rather unlikely, but with enough dynamics still
present that the winds may still warrant a headline and that we
can`t rule out at least an isolated severe convective threat.

In terms of rain timing and amounts, any convection across
Northwest Ohio along a pre-frontal trough Saturday evening
should dissipate as it continues east-northeast. Rain potential
ramps back up from the west late Saturday night into Sunday as
the cold front pushes in, with a few rumbles of thunder also
possible along the front. Rain chances will generally peak on
Sunday area-wide. Wrap-around rain is expected to continue into
Sunday night behind the departing low and cold front, with this
wrap-around rain gradually ending west to east through the
night. Given increased model agreement on the overall evolution,
confidence in a good, wetting rain across the entire area is
decent. NBM 10th percentile QPF amounts (the reasonable "low
end") is 0.35-0.55" across the entire area, with 90th percentile
amounts (the reasonable "high end") ranging from 1.75-2.25".
The high end would only occur if a localized area sees training
convection, and is overall unlikely. However, deterministic/
mean amounts are in the 0.90-1.40" range through Sunday night
area-wide. While the high-end QPF is unlikely, even the lower-
end and current most likely amounts would be beneficial across
the board. Outside of a leaf-clogged drain, the ongoing drought
conditions lead to minimal risk for impactful flooding.

There will be a couple of windows for potential gustier
winds...one will be just ahead of the cold front Sunday morning/
midday, when a 55-65kt low-level jet swings across the area.
While southerly winds often struggle to mix down well, the
combination of an unusually mild airmass and magnitude of the
flow aloft could allow for 35-45 MPH wind gusts, potentially a
bit stronger (up to 50 MPH) in favored downslope areas along the
eastern lakeshore. Most models have a 35-45kt low-level jet
swing through behind the front and departing low at some point
Sunday afternoon or evening. This will occur in a cold air
advection regime, which is more conducive to mixing winds down
towards the surface. That said, the flow aloft is not
tremendously strong and ongoing wrap-around rain may stabilize
the low-levels just a bit. The forecast has another period of
35-45 MPH gusts in the cold air advection behind the cold front
and departing low Sunday afternoon/early evening. Overall, odds
for peak gusts reaching warning-level (58MPH+) Sunday or Sunday
evening (per the latest National Blend of Models) are 5-10%
across the area, though with healthier odds (generally 40-70%)
for peak gusts reaching advisory-level (46-57 MPH). Given the
conflicting factors mentioned above and some modest model
disagreement, it`s too early to say for sure if we`ll need any
wind headlines or not... though expect it to be a noticeably
windy Sunday either way.

There will likely be a forced line or broken line of low-topped
convection across the area with the cold front on Sunday. The
amount of instability available will be modest at most, though
may begin increasing by the time the front reaches far eastern
OH and northwestern PA by the midday or early afternoon hours.
While instability will be lacking, forcing and shear will be
strong, particularly if a slightly stronger solution (as shown
by the 12z CMC and NAM models) comes to fruition. The strong
shear and instability may support at least a localized strong
wind risk with any low-topped convection along the cold front,
with modest potential for a more organized convective wind
threat and perhaps a "spin-up" tornado if instability and shear
trend a bit higher than most guidance currently depicts. The
SPC Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe is reasonable, given
conflicting but generally more negating factors.

Temperatures will be mild until the front goes through, with
lows struggling to dip below 60 Saturday night. Lows will settle
well into the 40s Sunday night behind the front.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Any lingering wrap-around rain across far Northeast OH and
Northwest PA early Monday will continue exiting east-northeast.
After a narrow wedge of high pressure slides through on Monday,
the next fairly potent trough/low pressure and associated cold
front pushes into the Great Lakes Monday night and Tuesday. The
cold front is expected to cross the local area, with some hints
that a secondary trough will push through Tuesday night or
Wednesday. Troughing and chilly cyclonic flow will linger over
the Great Lakes through Wednesday night. The general trend
should be for a drier and milder trend for Thursday and Friday
as the trough exits to the northeast, though enough ensemble
members have one last weak shortwave working through Thursday
or Thursday night for the NBM to give some low 20-40% type POPs
in the forecast for Thursday and Friday. Since the extended
forecast is largely the NBM, those POPs are in there.
Temperatures will be a bit warmer than normal for Monday and
Tuesday, trending cooler than normal for Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Warm air advection and a little bit of lift may result in some
isolated showers across the area tonight into early Saturday
morning, although precip may not reach the surface given dry
lower levels with RH values generally below 60 percent. The best
chance of rain will be at KERI where there`s a bit more
moisture, however confidence is too low to warrant more than a
PROB30 group for a few hours overnight. Otherwise, VFR is
anticipated through the majority of the TAF period before
showers begin to move east into the area near (or after) the TAF
period. Introduced a PROB30 group for showers/MVFR visibilities
at KTOL/KFDY after 22Z Saturday.

Winds will be out of the south/southeast at around 5 to 10 knots
along the lakeshore and west of KCAK/KYNG tonight with light
winds expected at KCAK/KYNG. South/southwest winds will begin to
increase with deepening warm air advection Saturday
morning/afternoon with wind speeds to 10 to 15 knots and gusts
to 20 to 25 knots anticipated areawide by afternoon. Terminals
across NW OH may see sustained winds to 15 to 20 knots and gusts
exceeding 25 knots for a brief period Saturday afternoon. Will
need to keep an eye on LLWS potential late in the TAF period,
but currently thinking that LLWS won`t develop until after the
boundary layer decouples and a LLJ builds over the area after
00Z Sunday.

Outlook...Periods of non-VFR in showers and thunderstorms are
expected Saturday night through Sunday. Gusty winds are
anticipated on Sunday with the highest wind gusts to at least 25
to 35 knots anticipated Sunday afternoon. Non-VFR will be
possible in showers Tuesday through Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure drifts off to the east through early Saturday and
quiet marine conditions are expected for that time period. Winds
will be 5-10kts out of the south increasing to 10-20kts by late
Saturday with waves 1-3 feet. A low pressure system will approach
the region on Saturday and will exit to the east by late Sunday.
This system will be fairly dynamic and has fluctuated over the past
couple of days in intensity and general location as it moves
through. Winds have not been an exception to this though, will be
elevated across the lake starting early Sunday morning through
Monday evening as a potent low level jet moves overhead. With this
feature, there is potential for gale force winds across the central
basin from 12Z Sunday through 06Z Monday and a Gale Watch has been
issued for that time frame. In addition to the Gale Watch, a Small
Craft Advisory will be needed for all the the nearshore zones from
late Saturday through Monday evening. Waves will build during the
elevated winds up to 9-13 feet across the central and eastern
basins. The western basin will still have elevated waves, but will
generally stay around 9 feet.

There will be a brief lull in strong winds as the low pressure
system and cold front move off to the east late Monday. Another low
pressure system will be quick to move into the region early Tuesday
and winds will strengthen again. There will be potential for 20-30
knot winds across much of the lake with a lower potential for gale
force winds again Tuesday into Wednesday. Will need to monitor this
system in the coming days.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday night for
     LEZ144>147-164>167.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Sullivan
NEAR TERM...Sullivan
SHORT TERM...Sullivan
LONG TERM...Sullivan
AVIATION...15
MARINE...23