468
FXUS61 KCLE 122335
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
735 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the previous forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers and thunderstorms will arrive from the west this
afternoon and continue into this evening. The primary concern is
heavy rain and isolated flash flooding, especially across Northeast
Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania.

2) Showers and thunderstorms will return Saturday night through
Sunday with a low pressure system and cold front. Some stronger
storms are possible Sunday afternoon and evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
The latest radar and satellite imagery depict
another large cluster of showers and thunderstorms towards the west
across Indiana, with SPC mesoanalysis revealing a tight MLCAPE
gradient oriented generally NNW to SSE. Convection trends have
already begun following this gradient, with the stronger and more
organized storms beginning to dip further south across Indiana and
southwest Ohio. Modest residual westerly 850 mb flow of 30 to 35
knots across Northwest Ohio may allow for some showers and storms to
redevelop this afternoon, though the threat for any stronger storms
across our area appears to be decreasing. There is a somewhat low
potential for some heavier rain and isolated flash flooding later
this evening as a trough swings south through the Eastern Great
Lakes, as the arriving 850 mb jet may result in a stalled boundary
somewhere across far Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania.

Otherwise, the heavy rain threat for Thursday night into Friday
appears to be decreasing as QPF guidance continues to trend further
south into the Ohio Valley. Could still see some scattered showers
and storms Thursday night into Friday, particularly along or near
the US-30 corridor, but the overall heavy rain threat appears to be
decreasing.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
The next period for unsettled weather will be
Saturday night through Sunday as a low pressure system moves east
through the Great Lakes, extending a cold front across the area
Sunday night. Will continue to monitor the threat for any stronger
storms, especially Sunday afternoon with the latest guidance
suggesting a potent 700 mb shortwave of 35 to 40 knots entering the
area.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
Gradual improvement in ceilings from MVFR to VFR is occurring
from northwest to southeast this evening. Lower confidence in
KERI ceilings improving to VFR given lingering showers and
thunderstorms moving east across Northeast Ohio/Northwest PA.
Elsewhere, VFR conditions will deteriorate to IFR, with patchy
LIFR, in areas of fog overnight tonight. Highest confidence in
IFR or lower conditions will be western terminals (including
MFD). Any fog that does develop overnight tonight will dissipate
Thursday morning allowing for conditions to slowly improve back
to VFR by late morning/early afternoon. Some showers and storms
may begin to approach terminals from the southwest Thursday
evening and have put VCSH in the KFDY/KTOL and the 30-hr KCLE
TAF.

Southwest to west winds 5-10 knots will become light and
variable overnight tonight. Winds turn northwesterly Thursday
morning.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Thursday
evening into Thursday night. Non-VFR possible again in showers
and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon into Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Showers and thunderstorms are possible across Lake Erie this
afternoon into the evening as a feature moves west to east across
the region. Precipitation will move to the east by late tonight with
quiet conditions expected through Saturday evening. Winds today will
be out of the southwest at 10-15 knots before shifting to be out of
the north at 10-15 knots by Thursday morning. Winds will become
light throughout the day Thursday, around 5 knots and shift to be
out of the east at 5-10 knots by Friday through Saturday evening. A
warm front will move over the lake Saturday night and winds will
shift to be out of the south at 5-15 knots, then the associated cold
front will move across the lake shifting winds to be out of the
northwest at 10-15 knots by Sunday evening. Waves through Thursday
evening will be less than 1 foot and build to 1-3 feet Friday
through Monday morning.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kahn
AVIATION...13
MARINE...23