674
FXUS61 KCLE 041134
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
634 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Chances of rain have trended up on Friday and will continue across
the snowbelt region of Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania on
Saturday. Temperatures continue to trend cooler for Saturday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Rain will spread east across the area through this evening. Many
areas can expect a quarter to a half inch of rain with locally
higher amounts closer to Central Ohio.

2) Cooler temperatures and showers will arrive behind a front on
Friday and linger into Saturday across Northeast Ohio and Northwest
Pennsylvania.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Low pressure is located over the Upper Midwest with a cold front extending
south through the Mississippi Valley. Radar imagery shows a swath
of rain ahead of a deep upper level trough that will curl northeast
towards the Great Lakes Region today. Rain is forecast to reach
the I-75 corridor towards sunrise on the nose of a 45 knot low
level jet and expand east today. The deep moisture axis shifts
east with time with most areas receiving between a quarter and
half inch of rain. Locally higher rain amounts are focused
towards Central Ohio. Temperatures will be warmer in the east
today where most of the morning will be dry. Looking upstream a
broken S type radar signature in Indiana is starting to fall
apart as it moves northeast. Fortunately there is little to no
surface based instability so this trend is expected to continue
with no hazardous weather expected. We will see southerly
winds gusting to around 30 mph in Northwest Ohio as the gradient
tightens and low level jet arrives. Once the rain arrives fills
in the potential for stronger wind gusts will be reduced due to
stable boundary layer conditions. Have included just a slight
chance of thunderstorms in portions of Northwest and North
Central Ohio but so far not seeing any lightning upstream in
Indiana.

Rain will tend to exit to the east by Thursday morning as the dry
slot sets up overhead. Favorable mixing should help clear clouds out
and mix into drier air aloft. High temperatures are forecast to be
in the low 60s on Thursday with breezy southwest winds and clearing
skies.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
An upper level trough will dive south out of Canada
on Thursday and phase with the upper low over the Great Lakes
Region. Another trough will race northeast from the Four Corners
region on Thursday night and bring a plume of deeper moisture back
towards the local area. Showers will tend to expand from west to
east on Friday as a cold front wraps around the south side of the
upper level low. Showers will blossom across the area, especially
during the afternoon. Another dry-slot does wrap into the system on
Friday evening but wrap around moisture through 700mb is forecast to
return and be focused across the east half of Lake Erie on Saturday.
Temperatures on Friday will be in the 50s with the highest values in
the east ahead of the front. High temperatures on Saturday continue
to trend downward as we end up on the back side of the upper level
low. Temperatures at 850mb will be as low as -3C on Saturday morning
which should be sufficient for lake enhanced rain across the east
half of the forecast area. Did not add thunder but can not rule out
a few isolated thunderstorms coming off Lake Erie.

Precipitation is generally expected to be done by Sunday with a
gradual warming trend setting up for the early part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Today, a cold front is expected to push east across the area
which will bring widespread precipitation and the potential for
non-VFR conditions to every terminal. This morning, some showers
have already begun to impact far western terminals and are
expected to continue to spread east-northeast into this
afternoon. Along with those showers, a lowering of ceilings will
occur with most terminals experiencing ceilings between 1-3kft
by this afternoon. Isolated areas of IFR conditions are
possible, but the confidence in the timing and location of these
conditions is lower. Near the end of the period, all showers
should shift east of the area, allowing for many terminals to
begin to rebound to VFR conditions.

Winds through the period are expected to be breezy from the
south-southeast at 10-15 knots through this evening. Terminals
could see periodic gusts of 20-25 knots as well with the
strongest gusts expected across the western terminals. Tonight,
winds will weaken to 5-10 knots and shift to become
southwesterly.

Outlook...Low pressure and a cold front crossing through the
region Friday into Saturday bring the next potential round of
non-VFR in rain showers/low ceilings.

&&

.MARINE...
Southerly winds will increase to 15-20 knots on the west half of
Lake Erie today. We could see a brief window of winds in the 20-25
knot range this evening but did not issue a Small Craft Advisory
given the offshore flow. Will let day shift take another look at
observational data before deciding if an Advisory is needed.
Southwesterly winds on Thursday may be slightly stronger and close
to Small Craft Advisory criteria again. A cold front pushes south
across Lake Erie on Friday with a compact trough setting up across
the eastern Great Lakes. We could see a chance of both waterspouts
and a few thunderstorms on Friday. A Small Craft Advisory will
likely be needed for most of Lake Erie Friday night into Saturday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date    Toledo     Mansfield     Cleveland     Akron     Youngstown    Erie

11-04   80(2003)    77(2015)      79(2003)    76(2015)    77(2003)    78(2015)

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...10
AVIATION...04
MARINE...10