845
FXUS61 KCLE 022331
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
731 PM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes from the previous forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Mainly seasonable and dry weather is expected through next
week. Frost headlines are possible Monday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
The latest radar and satellite imagery reveal a surface cold
front that has exited south of the area this afternoon, with
residual cloud cover lingering across the region. Cloud cover is
expected to quickly erode by this evening as an area of high
pressure briefly builds south into the Great Lakes.

Another cold front will move east through the area on Sunday, though
precipitation chances should be limited or negligible with a large
area of mid-level dry air in place. Behind this front, a stronger
area of Canadian high pressure will build south into the region,
ushering in cooler and drier air. The highest confidence for the
most widespread frost threat appears to be Monday night into Tuesday
morning when the high is directly overhead, resulting in efficient
radiative cooling. The frost potential will continue Tuesday night
into Wednesday morning, though the area may become more limited and
confined to sheltered areas/inland Northwest Pennsylvania as warm
air advection gradually increases from the west.

Another weak cold front may cross the area by the end of the week,
though the latest guidance suggests this may be another mainly dry
frontal passage with ample mid-level dry air in place.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
VFR through the period. Cirrus the main player, but no ceilings
into Saturday. Winds northerly 5-10kts become northeasterly
10kts Saturday.

Outlook...Overall VFR conditions expected this weekend into
early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Choppy to rough marine conditions will return across the Central and
Eastern basin of Lake Erie this evening and overnight as north winds
increase to near 20 knots. Conditions will gradually improve on
Saturday into Sunday, though remain choppy with north to northeast
winds of 10 to 15 knots. Another cold front will cross the lake
Sunday night into Monday, ushering in north to northwest winds of 15
to 20 knots, and another round of Small Craft Advisories will likely
be needed. Winds will become light and variable on Tuesday with
high pressure overhead.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Saturday for LEZ146>148.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kahn
AVIATION...26
MARINE...Kahn