717
FXUS61 KCLE 301751
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
151 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered over the southern Great Lakes will
gradually drift east and offshore of the New England coast by
Tuesday. A strong cold front will move through the region
Wednesday night or Thursday, with a trough then lingering
across the Great Lakes into next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Little in the way of weather to be concerned with the rest of
the weekend as a large ridge of Canadian high pressure at the
surface remains in control beneath continued broad mid/upper
troughing across the eastern CONUS. This will keep conditions
unseasonably cool and dry, although Sunday will be a solid 5
degrees milder than today as the center of the surface high
starts to drift toward the eastern Great Lakes. This will allow
highs Sunday to finally reach the 70s in all areas, with low to
mid 70s expected in north central and NE Ohio and NW PA, and
solid mid 70s in NW Ohio.

The most interesting aspect of the forecast is the low
temperature forecast tonight. Lows overperformed last night by
several degrees, and that was with lingering cloud cover. Given
that the high will be centered right over the southern Great
Lakes tonight along with its associated mostly clear skies and
light winds, see no reason why low temperatures won`t be even
colder than last night. Used a blend of the NBM 10th and 25th
percentiles for lows tonight, which gives widespread mid/upper
40s, except for low 50s along the lakeshore. The U.S. 30
corridor, interior NE Ohio, and interior NW PA will see
low/mid 40s, with some isolated upper 30s possible in sheltered
valleys of NW PA. These values will be safely above frost
concern, but they are certainly very rare for the end of August.
Lows Sunday night will also be quite cold, with generally
mid/upper 40s, except low 50s near the lakeshore again.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Height rises will take place across the eastern CONUS Monday and
Tuesday as mid/upper shortwave ridging briefly builds into the
Great Lakes ahead of another deep mid/upper trough dropping into
the northern Plains. This combined with the large surface high
drifting into the eastern Great Lakes Monday and offshore of the
New England coast Tuesday will lead to further moderation of
temperatures to around normal values for the start of September.
Highs Monday will reach the mid/upper 70s in most areas, with
low/mid 70s in NE Ohio and NW PA. Highs Tuesday will warm into
the upper 70s to around 80, with mid/upper 70s in far NE Ohio
and NW PA. Lows will gradually be moderating as well, with
generally low/mid 50s both Monday night and Tuesday night,
except for upper 40s continuing in sheltered valleys of interior
NE Ohio and NW PA.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The big story of the extended will be another shot of
unseasonably cold air as the aforementioned mid/upper trough
drops from the northern Plains into the Great Lakes by Thursday.
This unseasonably deep mid/upper trough looks to take up
residence across all of central and eastern North America
through next weekend aided by a strongly positive PNA pattern
and associated sharp mid/upper ridge from the west coast of the
U.S. up toward Alaska. Such a pattern is more common in the
heart of winter, and in fact, a closed low will pinwheel south
of Hudson Bay sending reinforcing shortwaves and associated
surface troughs through the Great Lakes Thursday through the
weekend in the broadly cyclonic flow pattern. This will lead to
temperatures averaging 15-20 degrees below normal, along with
lake-effect rain showers at times in far NE Ohio and NW PA.

One more mild day is expected Wednesday ahead of the strong
cold front, with highs still in the mid/upper 70s. In terms of
rain and thunderstorms with the front, timing remains uncertain,
but much of the deterministic and ensemble guidance favors a
Wednesday night into Thursday morning frontal passage. This
should limit any severe weather threat, but strong jet support
will lead to impressive frontogenetic forcing, so expect a solid
band of showers to progress across the region late Wednesday
and Wednesday night into early Thursday. NBM POPS looked
reasonable, with POPS increasing to chance Wednesday and likely
to categorical Wednesday night into Thursday. NBM slight chance
POPS in far NE Ohio and NW PA look reasonable Thursday night
into Saturday for lake-effect showers, but these will likely
need adjustment as we get closer depending on wind direction and
band placement. High temperatures will struggle to get out of
the low to mid 60s Thursday and Friday, gradually moderating by
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Widespread VFR conditions are being observed across the area with
broken diurnal cu pushing south away from the lakeshore due to a
weak lake breeze that has developed. Ceilings with this cu are 4-6
kft and are not expected to become any lower. This evening, ceilings
should clear out as the atmosphere stabilizes and winds become light
and variable for all terminals. Overnight, temperatures are expected
to cool quite a bit given the clearing ceilings. These temperatures
could decrease enough to pose a threat for potential fog, especially
across the higher terrain and in the valleys. There is a chance that
clouds build south once again late tonight/early Sunday morning
which may slow the cooling just enough to inhibit additional fog
development, but given the uncertainty, opted to cap terminals
impacted at MVFR visibility of 5SM. Conditions should be very
similar to what occurred Friday night into Saturday. On Sunday,
another weak lake breeze is expected to develop near the end of this
period , pushing another area of cu south of the lake and impacting
wind directions at KERI and KCLE. Winds should remain light and
variable through the period, with occasional gusts at KCLE and KERI
this afternoon.

Outlook...VFR conditions are expected through Tuesday. On Wednesday,
isolated to scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with non-VFR
are possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Conditions on Lake Erie will be quiet through the weekend as
high pressure builds into the region. Winds will be northerly
for the majority of the weekend before shifting to be easterly
by Monday. A cold front will approach the region by mid week
and winds will shift to be southerly to southeasterly at 10-15
knots by Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Garuckas
NEAR TERM...Garuckas
SHORT TERM...Garuckas
LONG TERM...Garuckas
AVIATION...04
MARINE...23