265
FXUS61 KCLE 181116
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
716 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The Enhanced Risk for today has been expanded westward to
include most of the local area. Damaging wind gusts remain the
main hazard with storms today. Otherwise, the forecast remains
on track.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into this
evening. Scattered storms will could be strong to severe with
damaging winds being the primary hazard.

2) Additional showers and thunderstorms are likely late Monday and
Tuesday. Storms may be strong to severe, primarily on Tuesday.

3) Today will be the last day with hot temperatures before
temperatures cool down Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A warm front will lift east of the area this morning, pushing
any lingering smoke to the east. From there, the CWA will be in
the warm sector as a cold front approaches from the northwest.
Isolated showers/thunderstorms can`t be ruled out through this
morning, although confidence in the coverage/placement is low.
Showers and thunderstorms will develop with a pre-frontal trough
this afternoon before pushing southeast across the CWA into the
evening.

There`s still potential for severe weather this afternoon into this
evening (roughly 2-3 PM through about 9 PM) given the unstable and
moist air mass in place across the region. MLCAPE values of 2500-
3000+ J/kg will be in place during peak diurnal heating and some mid-
level dry air (and DCAPE values of around 800-1000 J/kg) will
contribute to a damaging wind gust threat, which may be scattered to
widespread depending on how organized storms become. Effective
bulk shear will increase to 30 to 40 knots as the cold front
advances into the region which will allow any initial cellular
convection to congeal into clusters/line segments. A few
tornadoes can`t be ruled out across portions of NE OH/NW PA,
where the wind field and low level shear (albeit marginal) will
be a bit more favorable. Isolated instances of large hail can`t
be ruled out, primarily in storms with taller/rotating updrafts.
In summary, damaging wind gusts are definitely the most
likely/widespread hazard with tornadoes being a secondary
hazard. An Enhanced Risk (Level 3 of 5) of severe weather is in
place across most of the area.

Torrential rainfall rates are likely in storms given PWAT values up
to 2 inches, however storm motion will be relatively fast which will
help mitigate the flash flood risk. There may be ponding/minor
flooding in poor drainage/urban areas and around the most responsive
creeks/streams, but overall the flash flood risk is low.

Another round of showers and isolated storms may push off of Lake
Erie with the cold front later this evening, but the atmosphere
will be worked over so do not anticipate severe weather. Dry
weather will return for Sunday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
High pressure will produce dry weather through at least early
Monday before shower and thunderstorm chances return as the next
system moves across the region late Monday through Tuesday.
There`s still quite a bit of uncertainty with the trajectory and
timing of a developing upper level low to the north of the area
during this time, which will impact storm placement/timing.
There will likely be sufficient forcing for organized showers
and thunderstorms and possibly severe thunderstorms at some
point on Tuesday (likely during the day), although confidence in
instability is low this far out.

KEY MESSAGE 3...
Today will feature one last day of well above normal
temperatures before cooler temps arrive behind the cold front
Sunday. Highs will be in the 80s and lower 90s with the hottest
temps expected across NW OH and in urban areas. Dew points will
be in the upper 60s and lower 70s and as a result heat index
values will be in the 90s. Apparent temps may attempt to briefly
flirt with 100 degrees in a few spots along/west of I-71,
although confidence in Heat Advisory criteria being met is low
due to potential for showers/thunderstorms during peak diurnal
heating. Sunday will feel much different with highs in the 70s
to around 80 degrees and Sunday night`s lows falling into the
lower 60s and 50s. Temps briefly warm to around normal
Monday/Tuesday, but daytime temps in the 70s will return for mid
to late week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Mixed-bag of VFR, MVFR, and IFR across the TAF sites this
morning, associated with residual wildfire haze and low
ceilings. Anticipate improvement to VFR over the next several
hours as the haze/low ceilings exit northeast of the area.

Attention then turns towards this afternoon and evening as
showers and thunderstorms develop ahead of a cold front,
potentially impacting all TAF sites with a brief window of
lower vsbys and gusty to strong winds. Highest confidence in
thunderstorm coverage and the potential for wind gusts to exceed
40 knots generally resides at MFD and east, with lower
confidence further west at TOL/FDY. Additional scattered showers
and perhaps a thunderstorm or two are possible with the cold
front later in the evening as it sweeps south through the area.

Winds are generally out of the southwest this morning, 7 to 10
knots. Winds will increase and gradually favor a southwest to
west direction into this afternoon, 10 to 15 knots with
periodic gusts of 20 to 25 knots. Winds will abruptly shift
towards the north behind the cold front later this evening and
overnight, around 10 knots.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible with haze/smoke on Sunday and
Monday. Non-VFR becoming more likely in showers and
thunderstorms Monday night through Tuesday. Some thunderstorms
Tuesday afternoon and evening may contain strong wind gusts.
Residual non-VFR possible on Wednesday on rain showers across
the eastern half of the area.

&&

.MARINE...
Rough marine conditions will arrive across Lake Erie today as
southwest winds of 15 to 25 knots develop ahead of a cold front.
Winds will shift towards the north behind the front later this
evening and overnight, 15 to 20 knots, before diminishing to
less than 10 knots by Sunday afternoon. In this package, have
extended the Small Craft and Beach Hazards for the central
basin, and added a couple of zones west towards the Islands,
mainly for the onshore flow later this evening and overnight.
Another period for rough marine conditions will arrive on
Tuesday as southwest winds of 15 to 25 knots develop ahead of a
cold front. Will likely need another round of marine headlines
Tuesday through Wednesday as winds shift towards the northwest
behind the cold front, around 20 knots.

Strong thunderstorm wind gusts are expected across Lake Erie
this afternoon and evening ahead of a cold front.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement from this evening through Sunday
     morning for OHZ009-010.
     Beach Hazards Statement through Sunday morning for OHZ011-012-
     089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for PAZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT
     Sunday for LEZ144-145.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for LEZ146>148.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LEZ149.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...Kahn
MARINE...Kahn