264
FXUS61 KCLE 061648
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1248 PM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the previous forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Seasonable and mainly dry weather will continue into Tuesday.

2) A brief period of above average temperatures will arrive on
Wednesday with showers and thunderstorms possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
High pressure will persist across the Great Lakes region through
Labor Day Weekend, ushering in seasonable and less humid
weather. Highs will reach the upper 70s to lower 80s with lows
generally in the 50s, though some isolated 40s are possible,
especially across the interior areas Sunday night into Monday
morning. A few lake-enhanced showers are possible later this
morning and afternoon, though coverage remains uncertain given
the latest satellite imagery revealing large pockets of dry air
across the region associated with the high pressure subsidence.


KEY MESSAGE 2...
A strong upper-level trough will move east through the Upper
Great Lakes on Wednesday, ushering in strong warm air advection
across the Lower Great Lakes and Midwest. A brief period of
heat and humidity will return across the region as heat indices
reach the low to mid-90s in some spots Wednesday afternoon. The
latest guidance indicates a narrow region of instability
developing across the area in the midst of seasonably-strong mid
and upper-level flow which could be favorable for some stronger
storms in the afternoon and evening, though there remains
uncertainty on coverage. Cooler and less humid weather will
return across the region Thursday into Friday as a cold front
moves east through the area and high pressure returns.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Some low VFR clouds have developed across the region with
incoming high pressure into the region and cooler air over warm
Lake Erie. There may be some intermittent ceilings around 3-5
kft but clouds should remain few/sct through the evening. Clouds
will clear with the diurnal cycle ending. Clouds will return on
Monday morning with cold air advection over the lake. Winds will
largely be northeasterly through the period. A land breeze may
develop tonight and allow for southeast flow at KERI.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible with showers and storms on Wednesday
and lingering into Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Choppy marine conditions (waves 2 to 3 feet at times) will
continue in the afternoon and evening hours over the next couple
of days as onshore flow becomes diurnally enhanced, resulting in
northeast flow up to 15 knots in some instances. Flow will
shift towards the southwest ahead of the next system on
Wednesday, with winds increasing into the 15 to 25 knot range.
Small Craft Advisories may be needed during this timeframe.
Winds will then shift towards the west to northwest behind a
cold front on Thursday, 10 to 15 knots.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kahn
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...Kahn