415
FXUS61 KCLE 141149
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
649 AM EST Sat Feb 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes made to the previous forecast. The weather
pattern continues to look more active with multiple opportunities
for light rain from Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Above normal temperatures are expected across the local area
today and will persist through the week. The snowpack across the
region will melt during this time.

2) The weather pattern becomes more active during the second half of
the week with multiple rounds of light rain possible between
Wednesday and Friday. Rises on area rivers could increase the
potential for localized ice jams to develop.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...

Heights rebound across the area today as a ridge builds east through
the Ohio Valley. Weak warm advection continues with southerly
surface winds and a continued moderation of the airmass.
Temperatures will tend to be in the mid to upper 40s over the
weekend with locally cooler conditions expected in PA. After the
passage of a shortwave on Sunday night, a broad upper ridge
expands from the Rocky Mountains to near the East Coast of the
United States. Temperatures creep up above 50 degrees in
northern Ohio for Monday and Tuesday with the warmest forecast
temperatures on Wednesday as a warm front lifts north of Lake
Erie. The local area is expected to get into the warm sector
with breezy southwest winds and temperatures near 60 degrees
towards Central Ohio. The consensus indicates that the above
normal temperatures will persist through at least Friday.

Remaining snow across the region is expected to melt as temperatures
soar to well above normal values. Dewpoints start to climb above
freezing on Sunday and even surpass 40 degrees across much of the
area for Tuesday and Wednesday. The melting snow will contribute to
some run-off and generally minor rises on area rivers.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...

An upper level trough lifts out of the Plains from Tuesday into
Wednesday as a 150 knot upper level jet approaches from the
Four Corners Region. Surface low pressure fills while lifting
out of the Plains towards the Upper Midwest. Showers associated
with overrunning along a warm front will extend east from the
low towards northern Ohio, lifting northeast through the day. A
gradient is expected in the coverage of precipitation across
the area with better coverage near Lake Erie and even more so
across Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. Precipitation
totals are generally forecast to be a third of an inch or less
with locally up to a half inch possible in Pennsylvania.

Another system looks to follow on the heels of this one, with low
pressure tracking out of the Plains towards the Central Great Lakes
Thursday night and Friday. The exact track of the system will
influence the amount of precipitation to expect and this will be
something to watch for the end of the week. The combination of
thermal break up from the warm conditions and run-off from
snowmelt and rain could combine to break up ice on area rivers.
This could result in the development of localized ice jams and
conditions will be monitored closely this week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
All terminals are VFR currently with higher clouds moving in
from the west. There are some lingering mid level clouds across
eastern Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania, but will be moving
to the east by mid-morning. Around 03-05Z, mid level clouds will
move back into the region as a low pressure system moves south
of the Ohio Valley. Winds will be light, around 5-10 knots out
of the southwest through the majority of the TAF period and
diminish around 00Z to be light and variable.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible with rain on Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Lake Erie is still mostly ice covered. There`s a break in the ice
just east of the Islands to  about Vermilion, OH that extends north
through the open water zones. More degradation in the ice coverage
is expected over the next several days with a light southwesterly
wind and temperatures staying near and above freezing. Currently the
winds are sitting around 10 to 15 knots across the lake and will
diminish into the early morning hours becoming less than 5 knots and
variable through Monday morning. Stronger winds of around 15 to 25
knots are possible Wednesday into Thursday next week with a passing
low pressure system.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...10
AVIATION...23
MARINE...23