766
FXUS61 KCLE 082003
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
403 PM EDT Mon Jun 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Confidence in locally heavy rainfall resulting in localized
flooding is increasing for Tuesday. Temperatures will also be a
few degrees lower Tuesday due to the clouds and precipitation.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms tonight into the
weekend. Highest chances for precipitation will be Tuesday
afternoon and late Thursday afternoon through Friday morning.

2) Hot and humid Wednesday and Thursday with heat indices near
or over 100 in some areas followed by slightly cooler and less
humid conditions Friday through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
An active weather day is expected Tuesday as a mid-level
shortwave and associated vort max lift through the Great Lakes
and temporarily create a weakness in the mid/upper ridge. The
surface low tied to this feature is currently spinning over the
Mid Mississippi Valley, with a warm front extending southeast
across the Ohio River Valley. This low will slowly lift through
the western and central Great Lakes late tonight and Tuesday
allowing the warm front to bulge gradually northeastward into
the southern Great Lakes. This warm front will usher in much
richer low-level moisture, with PWATs surging to near 2 inches
(near max daily climatology for June 9) as dew points rise into
the low 70s. This low-level moisture combined with slightly
cooler 850-700 mb temps as the mid-level shortwave progresses by
will allow for decent coverage of diurnal convection with
daytime heating Tuesday.

Initial showers and a few thunderstorms will move SW to NE
across the region late tonight and early Tuesday morning as warm
air advection and isentropic ascent increase ahead of the warm
front. These will be low-impact, but brief heavy rain could
occur in the strongest cells. The greatest coverage of
convection is expected Tuesday afternoon and evening as weak
upper diffluence on the SE flank of the shortwave overspreads
the region and interacts with daytime heating (moderate
instability of 1000-1500 MLCAPE). Given the very moist
environment described above and a skinny CAPE profile, very
heavy/efficient rainfall will occur within any thunderstorms.
This could produce localized flash flooding of low-lying and
poor drainage areas, particularly if any training occurs. The
good news is that antecedent conditions are mostly dry, but
training with these types of rainfall rates could still cause
localized issues. Contemplated a Flash Flood Watch with
neighboring offices, but the location of the heaviest rainfall
is highly uncertain. CAMS generally show scattered convection
and offer differing solutions on location. In general, the
heaviest showers and storms should start in NW and north central
Ohio around midday and slowly shift to near the PA border by
evening ahead of a weak surface trough/cold front trailing from
the low. Given the coverage and location uncertainties, opted to
just message the threat in the HWO, Weather Story, and Social
Media.

Severe weather is generally not expected Tuesday afternoon and
evening, but deep layer effective shear of 20-25 knots and an
increase in 0-1 and 0-3 SRH to 100-150 m2/s2 could be just
enough to cause some rotation within some of the convection, so
cannot rule out a brief spin up tornado somewhere, especially
since LCL heights will be low given the water loaded
environment.

The mid/upper ridge will become reestablished Wednesday and
Thursday over the eastern CONUS ahead of a strong mid/upper
trough progressing into the northern Plains. This combined with
strong deep layer WSW flow will advect an elevated mixed layer
(EML) across the region and reduce the coverage of convection,
especially Wednesday. Nevertheless, some widely scattered
diurnal convection will develop again Wednesday afternoon, with
better chances Thursday afternoon and evening as the ridge
starts to break down ahead of the mid/upper trough and
associated cold front. As this front crosses the region late
Thursday night and Friday morning, a more organized line of
showers and thunderstorms is possible. This could produce
another round of heavy rainfall in some areas. The overnight and
morning timing is not favorable for widespread severe weather,
but a decaying squall line with damaging wind potential will
need to be monitored, especially for NW Ohio which is currently
on the edge of a Day 4 severe weather outlook from the SPC.
Quasi-zonal flow behind this front will cause the boundary to
become quasi-stationary near the region late Friday and
Saturday followed by a stronger cold front Sunday, so a few
isolated showers/storms could continue Friday afternoon through
Saturday, then a better chance Saturday night and Sunday with
the next cold front.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Hot and humid conditions are still expected Wednesday and
Thursday under the strong mid/upper ridge and deep WSW flow. H85
temps of 20-22 C advecting into the region, decent mixing, and
ensemble guidance all support highs in the upper 80s to low 90s.
This combined with dew points in the upper 60s/low 70s will
yield heat indices near or over 100F in some areas. Early season
heat can be more dangerous, so extra precautions will need to be
taken to stay cool and hydrated. Temperatures and dew points
will begin to fall behind the cold front Friday, but it will
remain seasonably warm and humid until the second cold front
brings more significantly cooler and drier air by Sunday and
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/...
For this afternoon, we`re watching an area of cumulus clouds
that have developed across parts of Northwest Ohio (thinking the
KMFD-KFDY-KTOL area). A few models have some isolated to
scattered showers, with a low chance for lightning. Limited
coverage and low confidence precedes a TSRA mention in the TAF
at this time.

An area of showers and thunderstorms near an advancing warm
front is expected to move across the area tonight and tomorrow.
This is some confidence in an area of showers with embedded
isolated to scattered thunderstorms late tonight. Confidence is
higher in our western TAF sites (KTOL/KFDY) for lightning, where
a TEMPO TSRA was included. Picked a four hour window where it
was most likely, but there is a low chance of it occurring for
most of tonight. There is also a low chance for lightning at
KMFD/KCLE but the risk of lightning decreases the farther east
you go into our forecast area tonight. Periods of MVFR & IFR
ceilings/visibilities are possible tonight, and is most likely
to occur at western TAF sites.

For tomorrow, showers are likely to linger across eastern TAF
sites (KYNG/KERI), followed by additional development of showers
and thunderstorms during the afternoon somewhere in western Ohio
(confidence very low in the location for this).

Southerly winds less than 10 knots are expected this afternoon,
except for locations impacted by a lake breeze (mainly
KERI/KCLE, maybe KTOL). That continues tonight before strong
southerly flow develops Tuesday afternoon, with gusts to around
20-25 knots possible.

Outlook...Periods of non-VFR likely in occasional showers and
thunderstorms through Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
East to northeast flow around 15 knots continues through early
tonight before weakening and become south to southeast tonight
ahead of an approaching warm front. The warm front works its way
eastward across the lake Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
night, with winds becoming southwest around 10 to 15 knots and
persisting through at least Friday morning before a cold front
crosses Lake Erie.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Garuckas
AVIATION...Saunders
MARINE...Saunders