816
FXUS61 KCLE 281847
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
247 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Precipitation chances have increased to around 30-60% for much
of the area for a brief period of rain showers Thursday evening
into Thursday night. Precipitation chances on Sunday have
trended more towards Sunday night. The forecast for Monday has
trended drier.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Above normal temperatures and dry weather, aside from
isolated rain showers Thursday night, will continue through
Sunday.

2) Rain chances return Sunday night through midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
High pressure remains over the east coast through Thursday.
Southerly flow on the backside of the departing high will bring
well above normal temperatures (highs in the 70s, lows in
40s/50s), potentially challenging record high temperatures on
Thursday (see climate section below).

A low pressure system located well to the north near the Georgian
Bay will bring a cold front across the area Thursday night.
While moisture and lift is still lacking overall, precipitation
have increased to around 30-60%. Some hi-res model guidance
indicate a decent chance at a brief, moderate rainfall with some
of the heavier rain showers, mainly near Lake Erie where there
could be slightly high low-lelel moisture/convergence.

High pressure builds back in Friday through Sunday, ushering
"cooler" but still above normal temperatures with highs in the
60s and lows in the 40s/50s. Some of the typically cooler spots
of Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania could get down
into the mid 30s Friday night.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
As high pressure departs to the east, broad isentropic lift
brings rain chances back Sunday night into early Monday. Latest
model guidance has trended toward lower PoPs and a drier day
Monday and even into Monday night as precip is mainly tied to a
warm front that lifts northeastward across the area Sunday
night. Any rain that does occur will be light and likely less
than 0.1".

A low pressure system and upper-level low approach the area from
the west, with rain chances on the rise midweek. This system has
a better chance to bring appreciable rainfall.

Temperatures will likely remain above normal into next week with
highs in the upper 60s and lows in the 40s/50s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/...
VFR across the TAF sites this afternoon with VFR to persist
through the TAF period. Only minor tweak in this update was to
include vcsh at CLE towards the end of the TAF period as rain
chances increase ahead of a cold front.

Outside of a weak lake breeze impacting ERI/CLE this afternoon,
winds will generally favor a west to southwest direction, around
5 knots. Winds will then increase out of the south to southwest
Thursday morning and afternoon, 10 to 12 knots with periodic
gusts up to 20 knots possible.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible with rain showers along a cold front
Thursday evening and overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Light and variable winds become 10 to 15 knots out of the
southwest  10-15 knots tonight into Thursday before shifting
northwesterly to northerly behind a cold front Thursday evening.
Choppy conditions with waves 2-4 feet in the central basin
remain possible behind the frontal passage. High pressure
returns Friday and Saturday allowing for northerly to
northeasterly winds to remain 10 knots or less. South winds less
than 10 knots develop Sunday into Monday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
We are forecast to be within a few degrees of record warmth on
Thursday. Here are the record high temperatures for our six
climate sites on October 29th:

Date    Toledo     Mansfield   Cleveland   Akron      Youngstown  Erie
10-29   79(2024)   79(1922)    78(2024)    77(1900)   77(2024)    77(2024)

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Saunders
AVIATION...Kahn
MARINE...Saunders