010
FXUS61 KCLE 071123
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
723 AM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1.) Next chances for showers/storms come from an upper level trough
centered around the Tuesday time frame.

2.) Heat will build through the week as another upper level ridge
builds into the Great Lakes.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Cold front should be south of the CWA by mid morning today with high
pressure building on for today through Monday as it moves from the
northern Great Lakes towards Long Island. Slightly cooler today as a
result. Tuesday will see a brief return to upper level troughing
combined with a warm front that will move through the CWA. POPs on
the increase as a result for showers and storms, but for now, the
focus of this activity will be the potential for heavy rain. The
convection itself should be scattered overall, but a subtle low
level jet with a significant influx of low level moisture will
appear, and PWAT values could climb above 2 inches. Dewpoints will
climb  above 70F and vertical profiles indicate that high
precipitation efficiency is likely, so downpours could be an issue,
especially in a convective training or backbuilding situation. Still
have time for these details to continue to unfold.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
For the rest of the week, another upper level ridge builds into the
Great Lakes, and temperatures will remain on the higher side with
dewpoints also elevated as well in the lower 70s. Will need to watch
for apparent T values to eclipse the 100F mark with temperatures
that could reach the lower 90s. Isolated to scattered convection can
be expected during daytime heating hours for the end of thee week,
and then more organized threats Friday ahead of the cold front.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Primarily VFR conditions under high pressure through the TAF
window outside of lingering patchy fog this morning. Expect for
any remaining IFR visibilities in BR to dissipate within the
next hour or so. Winds become northerly to northeasterly at
5-10 knots this morning.

Outlook...Periods of non-VFR likely in occasional showers and
thunderstorms early Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will continue to build over the lake today giving
way to light onshore flow. Winds turn easterly while increasing
to 5-15 knots on Monday. A warm front approaches the lake on
Tuesday allowing for winds to shift southerly while remaining
between 10-15 knots. Southerly to southwesterly flow will
continue through the remainder of the week. Not anticipating any
marine headlines.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...13
MARINE...13