021
FXUS61 KCLE 221943
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
343 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The forecast remains generally on track with no significant
changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Below normal temperatures and dry conditions will trend towards
seasonal values by Saturday.

2) Chances of showers and thunderstorms return Sunday into the early
part of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Upper level trough responsible for the cooler airmass over the
region will pivot east into New England on Thursday. Meanwhile
high pressure will expand at the surface across the Central
Great Lakes maintaining cool and dry conditions to end the week.
Overnight lows through Thursday night will be in the low 50s
and high temperatures will gradually warm 3-5 degrees each day
through Saturday. A healthy cumulus deck of clouds is expected
inland again on Thursday but will tend to clear late afternoon.
Mostly sunny to partly cloudy conditions continue through
Saturday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Active weather will return Sunday into Monday as the upper
level ridge expands eastward into the Central Great Lakes
accompanied by the moisture and instability axis. Dewpoints
return to the mid 60s with ML CAPE values of 1000-2000 J/kg on
Sunday. A shortwave moving through the northwest flow aloft will
likely provide a focus for scattered thunderstorms and
sufficient shear is expected for some storms to be strong. By
Monday a warm front will be in the vicinity and likely act as a
focus for additional thunderstorm activity. Given uncertainty in
placement and coverage will keep most areas at scattered
coverage for now but could trend up once we gain confidence in
timing. Temperatures will trend back to more summer like
conditions with highs in the mid to upper 80s and increasing
humidity to start the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/...
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period as high pressure
builds into the Great Lakes region. There are a few pockets of 2-
3kft foot ceilings due to the lake effect clouds, but have been
intermittent. Ceilings should dissipate later this evening, and
expect a scattered deck around 5kft overnight into tomorrow morning.
There`s low potential in patchy fog developing from KCAK to KYNG,
though confidence is low in impacts to the terminals.

Winds will be 5-10 knots with occasional gusts up to 20 knots across
the region through 00Z tonight. Overnight, winds will be light and
variable with the high pressure building in. By 13-14Z tomorrow
morning, winds will become predominately out of the north at around
5 knots.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms on
Sunday into Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Conditions across Lake Erie have improved over the course of the day
and the Small Craft Advisory and Beach Hazard Statement have been
cancelled. High pressure builds into the region this evening with
winds subsiding to less than 10 knots out of the north overnight
with waves subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Winds will become less than 5
knots and variable Thursday morning through much of Friday. The high
pressure will drift off to the east by early Saturday and winds will
shift to be out of the south to southwest at around 5 knots. Late
Saturday into Sunday, a tough will move through the Great Lakes with
winds shifting to be out of the west at around 10 knots into
Monday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...10
AVIATION...23
MARINE...23