701
FXUS61 KCLE 281821
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
221 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front moves through today and tonight. Cool high pressure
then dominates the weather pattern through early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Cold front dropping southward through the Great Lakes this morning
and eventually into our CWA today and tonight will be a
reinforcement of the cooler airmass that has resided over the region
for the pasty few days. Ample frontogenetic forcing to kick off
convection after 15Z or so first beginning in the northwester zones.
as surface winds veer from south to southwest, should get a late
surge of dewpoints that will push the 60F mark from the starting
point in the mid 40s this morning. Will also get a modest low level
jet setting up, helping with an increase in the dewpoints in the low
levels as well. Will have to overcome some mid level dry air at the
onset, and also an inverted V vertical profile for the boundary
layer. CAPE is fairly limited in both time and magnitude through the
day/evening hours. For convection that occurs, given the
aforementioned conditions, gusty winds could be an issue with
showers/storms that develop from fry air entrainment and the dry sub
cloud layer.

Despite the increase in the dewpoints, likely not to get much in the
way of any warm air advection prior to frontal passage, and
expecting another well below normal temperature day with low 70s the
norm for the CWA. Post frontal cool again tonight, but cloudy
conditions and the dewpoints not yet falling keep temperatures
largely in the upper 40s to lower 50s tonight. Friday will be the
coolest day of the forecast with mostly 60s except for the far
southwestern zones where 70F might be achieved, while NW PA has
trouble getting out of the lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level low pressure retains its hold on the southern Great
Lakes heading into the weekend. The forecast is largely dry,
although some lake effect sprinkles could be possible in northwest
PA Friday night. This will be a rather chilly night across the
region with widespread 40s with only the immediate lakeshore areas
hanging on to the lower 50s. Likely will not hit record lows,
however. Through the rest of the weekend, it will be all about
airmass modification with decent amounts of daily insolation while
the upper level low drifts eastward into Atlantic Canada.
Temperatures back to the low to mid 70s by Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Even though the upper level low shifts to the east, still will not
be able to shake the dominant troughing aloft over the eastern third
of the CONUS. Temperatures will continue to moderate heading into
next week, generally in the 75-80F range into mid week. Forecast
remains dry until mid week when the next approaching upper low/cold
front brings POPs back into the fold.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Moisture is increasing across the area today ahead of a cold
front that extends from southern Quebec to lower Michigan at
18Z. Showers are expanding east across north central Ohio ahead
of the front. Ceilings ahead of the rain remain VFR but some
locations within the showers are dropping to MVFR. An expansion
of MVFR ceilings is expected with the front which is expected
to push south across the area between 21-06Z. This brings a
chance of thunderstorms to TOL, CLE, and ERI with another round
of showers and lower potential for thunderstorms elsewhere. Any
thunderstorm could bring brief IFR visibilities. While clouds
may briefly scatter out behind the front, the expectation is for
mostly cloudy to overcast skies to fill in overnight with
increasing lake enhanced cloud cover. MVFR to VFR clouds are
expected to continue through at least 18Z, then slowly starting
to scatter out from west to east as high pressure builds in from
the Central Great Lakes.

Winds are generally west to southwest ahead of the front at
8-12 knots with some sites gusting to 20 knots. A wind shift to
the northwest and then north will occur behind the front with
north winds at 10 knots or less.

Outlook...Non-VFR may linger tonight through Friday in lake
effect clouds. Otherwise, mainly VFR is expected Saturday
through Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Rough marine conditions will return across Lake Erie today as
elevated west to southwest winds of 15 to 25 knots develop ahead of
an approaching cold front. Opted to add Lorain to the Beach Hazards
Statement given the slight westerly component to the winds.
Similarly, added the marine zone off of Erie, OH to the Small Craft
Advisory with winds approaching 20 knots. In addition, thunderstorms
are also possible along and ahead of the cold front which could
result in strong wind gusts around of 35 to perhaps 40 knots at
times. Winds will abruptly shift to the north behind a cold front
later this evening and overnight, remaining elevated, 15 to 20
knots. Marine conditions will improve by late tonight into Friday
morning as high pressure builds across the region, resulting in
relatively light north to northeast flow of around 10 knots into
early next week.

Waterspouts are also possible in showers and thunderstorms through
tonight along and ahead the cold front.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for OHZ010>012-
     089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for PAZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for LEZ144>149.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...10
MARINE...Kahn