271
FXUS61 KCLE 121152
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
752 AM EDT Wed Aug 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
There is a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe weather for
Northeast Ohio and Northwest PA today. Some showers and storms
could be strong to severe with gusty winds and large hail.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Several rounds of showers and storms remain possible through
Thursday night. Some showers and storms could be strong to
severe in Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania this
afternoon with gusty winds and large hail. Broader coverage of
showers and storms are possible in Central Ohio on Thursday
afternoon and evening; locally heavy rain and nuisance flooding
is possible.

2) Showers and storms could return as early as Saturday
afternoon. Rain coverage will increase into Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
The northwest flow pattern aloft and stalled front to the
southwest will continue to dictate the weather across the area
through Thursday night. For today, a mid-level shortwave will
ripple through the northwest flow this afternoon. This will
support a surface trough the will move through the eastern Great
Lakes and flare up showers and storms in Northeast Ohio and
Northwest PA this afternoon and evening. With better lift in
this area and some instability, some storms could be stronger
with gusty winds and large hail, but any severe event would be
isolated. Further southwest, the shortwave will reinvigorate
showers and storms along the front in Indiana and Southwest
Ohio. Some of these could spread into Northwest and Central Ohio
this afternoon. Any afternoon and evening activity should
largely wipe out instability and any large development tonight,
but some stray showers may develop over and near the lake with
some isentropic lift over the area.

For Thursday into Thursday night, the front to the southwest
will try to lift north and get into Central Ohio, if not into
the southwest portions of the forecast area. One more shortwave
will ripple through the northwest flow aloft and allow for more
rain and storms to develop. Believe that any storms with any
bite to them will be southwest of the forecast area with the
better instability. However, any storms will have heavy rain and
the potential for localized flooding does exist. High pressure
will build from the northwest for Friday, pushing the front and
rain chances out of the area.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
The upper ridge over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys will recede
south a bit on Saturday into Sunday and allow for northwest flow
on the northeast side of the ridge. This will allow for a series
of shortwaves to move through the region starting as early as
Saturday afternoon with most impacts on Saturday night into
Sunday. These shortwaves will support shower and storm chances
across the area. There is a non-zero chance for strong to severe
storms on Sunday with a more organized surface low moving
through the eastern Great Lakes region. Temperatures ahead of
the low and Sunday convection could get into the mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Fog will slowly burn off through mid morning, but cigs are
trending more pessimistic in much of the region through the
afternoon, so expanded the duration of MVFR cigs, except for
KERI which should be mainly VFR. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will develop late this afternoon and evening. All
sites have the potential to see some brief rain, but maintained
the mentions at KTOL, KFDY, KMFD, KCLE, KCAK, and KYNG where
chances are highest. KERI may see a shower, but confidence was
too low for the TAF. Moving into tonight, VFR should dominate
until fog and mist start to form once again. Kept visibilities
in the MVFR to IFR range, but it is possible these will be
lowered as confidence increases.

Light and variable winds early this morning will become SW at
5-10 knots this afternoon and evening before turning light again
tonight.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Thursday
into Thursday night. Non- VFR possible again in showers and
thunderstorms Saturday afternoon into Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Quiet conditions will continue on Lake Erie through Thursday as
the active frontal boundary slowly shifts south and high
pressure attempts to briefly build into the Great Lakes. SW
winds of 5-10 knots today will become light and variable tonight
and Thursday before turning NE and increasing to 5-15 knots by
Friday and Friday night as the high becomes better established.
Winds will back to E to SE Saturday and eventually turn S to SW
by Sunday as a warm front lifts north, with speeds increasing to
10-20 knots Sunday.`

Scattered thunderstorms could bring locally higher winds and
waves this evening and again this weekend.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sefcovic
AVIATION...Garuckas
MARINE...Garuckas