552
FXUS61 KCLE 030716
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
216 AM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Near record warmth expected for portions of Northwest Ohio
today.

2) Rain will spread west to east across the area Wednesday into
Wednesday night bringing a quarter to a half inch of precipitation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...
Southerly flow will continue across the region today as we
remain between high pressure off the Mid-Atlantic Coast and
elongated low pressure extending from the Upper Midwest to the
southern Plains. Warm advection will be ongoing with 925mb
temperatures peaking approximately 5C warmer than yesterday and
breezy south winds gusting to 20-25 mph in North Central and
Northwest Ohio. Aloft, 500mb heights of 582dm are above 90th
percentiles values based on ILN sounding climatology for
November 3rd. The anomalously warm airmass for early November
combined with clearing skies will result in high temperatures in
the low to mid 70s. Toledo has the best chance of tying or
breaking a record which is 77 degrees from 1987. Records for
other northern Ohio sites can be found in the Climate portion of
the AFD below. Following the warm day, lows tonight will be
mild ranging from the mid 50s to low 60s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
A deep upper level trough extending to the southern
Plains will pivot northeast towards the Great Lakes Region on
Wednesday. Favorable moisture transport will be focused towards Ohio
and forcing will be provided by upper level jet dynamics as the
trough becomes negatively tilted aloft. Showers are expected to move
into Northwest Ohio Wednesday morning then expand eastward through
Wednesday night. Potential for thunderstorms is low but not zero.
Did not include in the forecast with this cycle but can not rule out
an isolated thunderstorm or two on Wednesday. South to southeast
winds will be elevated on Wednesday but the boundary layer is
expected to be stable enough to not bring down the stronger winds
noted with a 40-50 knot low level jet overhead in showers. In
general, most of the area is forecast to receive between a quarter
and a half inch of rain. We will need to monitor convection across
the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys where moisture
transport northward could be disrupted by thunderstorm activity
but overall feel the high pops are justified ahead of the
occluded front.

Temperatures will still be warm on Wednesday ahead of the front.
Thursday is forecast to generally be dry as this trough lifts north
across Michigan and phases with another trough dropping south out of
Canada. A well pronounced dry-slot aloft will result in dry
conditions and clearing skies. Yet another trough is expected to
move out of the Four Corners Region into the Ohio Valley where it
will merge with the original trough. While model spread increases
heading into the weekend, models generally support a cold front
moving south Friday bringing a chance of showers, especially
downwind of Lake Erie. Temperatures over the weekend will be near
normal values in the mid 50s but will feel cool compared to the warm
pattern we have been in.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
A band of lower clouds and some light showers is lifting
northeast across the area right now, bringing a period of MVFR
ceilings with some occasional IFR also observed. Drier air and
higher ceilings will lift in from the south-southwest this
morning, allowing conditions to return to VFR. VFR is then
expected to persist through the remainder of the TAFs. The main
challenge with this set of TAFs was timing the improvement to
VFR, and some AMDs may be needed early this morning. South-
southeast winds in the 5-10kt range will shift south-southwest
and increase slightly to 8-14kt with some 20-25kt gusts Tuesday.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in rain Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Southerly winds will continue on Lake Erie through Wednesday,
becoming more southwesterly on Thursday. Winds may reach or exceed
20 knots on Wednesday as a low level jet moves overhead and will
consider if a Small Craft Advisory is needed. Otherwise winds
eventually shift to northwest behind a cold front on Friday, then
increase to 10-20 knots Friday night through Saturday. Right now
conditions over the weekend look to be choppy but just below Small
Craft criteria. This will be something to monitor over the coming
days.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date    Toledo     Mansfield     Cleveland     Akron     Youngstown    Erie
11-03   77(1987)    76(2015)      79(1961)    80(1961)    80(1961)    80(1961)
11-04   80(2003)    77(2015)      79(2003)    76(2015)    77(2003)    78(2015)

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...10
AVIATION...Sullivan
MARINE...10