081
FXUS61 KCLE 292327
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
727 PM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Introduced a low chance of sprinkles/showers across Lake
Erie and a few northern counties tonight. Better chances for
precipitation are focused across the northeast on Sunday night.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Late season heat and humidity expected to return Tuesday and
Wednesday with heat index forecast in the upper 90s.

2) The active storm track will set up across the Central and eastern
Great Lakes from Sunday night through Wednesday night, bringing a
chance of thunderstorms to mainly Northeast Ohio and Northwest
Pennsylvania. Chances of thunderstorms will expand inland on
Thursday as a cold front pushes south.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A warm front will lift north Sunday night ahead of the upper level
ridge which will expand into the region. High temperatures will
trend 3-5 degrees warmer on Monday then continue to creep up Tuesday
and Wednesday as the upper level ridge becomes firmly established.
Temperatures at 850mb will range from 20-23C with highs in northern
Ohio in the lower 90s, with a few sites in NW Ohio reaching the mid
90s. This is 10 or more degrees above normal for the beginning of
September. Dewpoints also increase during this time frame into the
upper 60s which will push heat index values solidly into the mid and
upper 90s Tuesday and potentially approaching 100 across the western
half of the area on Wednesday. (Heat index will be slightly
cooler in the lower 90s in NW PA). It is possible that a
portion of the area could need a Heat Advisory by Tuesday or
Wednesday but will also depend on if we have any thunderstorms
those days. In general confidence is increase that there will be
a heat threat early this week but some adjustment to temperatures
is still possible based on clouds and coverage of any
precipitation.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
High pressure with a dry airmass is in place across the region
today before building to the Mid-Atlantic region overnight.
Meanwhile mid-level moisture will be on the increase overnight
as shortwave energy traverses the Great Lakes Region. While low
levels are generally expected to remain dry, models do not have
a very good handle on the southern extent of showers in Illinois
this afternoon. While the precipitation across the western
Great Lakes is largely expected to dissipate, expect sufficient
moistening aloft to include a 20 percent chance of a shower
across Lake Erie or a few of our northern counties overnight,
which could just be in the form of sprinkles.

Better chances for precipitation come Sunday night as convection
over lower Michigan favors a southeast trajectory towards Northwest
Pennsylvania ahead of the building ridge. The warm front will bisect
our northeastern counties Sunday night before lifting north on
Monday. There is some potential for locally heavy rain across mainly
Northwest Pennsylvania on Sunday night with thunderstorms. After
that the ridge is expected to expand north on Monday. This will
hopefully place the active storm track from the Upper Great Lakes
towards New York but we will have to monitor the strength of the
building ridge on Tuesday and Wednesday. Models generally in good
agreement of 700mb temperatures reaching 10C with a capping
inversion developing overhead. The next stronger piece of energy to
round or break down the upper level ridge is expected Wednesday
night, pushing a weak cold front south into the area by
Thursday. We will have to monitor the eventual break down of the
upper level ridge which could lead to strong thunderstorms for
a portion of the area on Wednesday night or Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
BKN-OVC FL200 continues, added TEMPO 5SM -SHRA with a warm
front for 2hr durations after 04Z west to east. Winds less than
12kts. SCT-BKN cumulus develops with BKN-OVC mid level deck
Sunday. More showers possible after 18Z Sunday will need to be
examined for next set of TAFs. TSRA potential on the lower side
Sunday but non-zero.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible Sunday night into Monday with showers
and thunderstorms and again on Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Marine weather conditions will be quiet through the weekend.
High pressure is over the eastern Great Lakes today and will
drift eastward on Sunday. A warm front will lift northward
across Lake Erie by Sunday night and bring scattered showers
and storms. Winds will generally be from the south to southwest
5 to 15 knots today through middle of next week and waves of 1
to 2 feet. Marine headlines are not expected on the lake for the
next several days.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...10
AVIATION...26
MARINE...77