053
FXUS61 KCLE 161017
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
617 AM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

...12z TAF Aviation and Near Term Forecast Update...

.SYNOPSIS...
A stalled frontal boundary near the Ohio River will lift
northward as a warm front later today into Tuesday. A cold front
move across the region on Thursday. High pressure will build in
across the region by the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
615 am update...
There are no changes or adjustments needed to the ongoing near
term forecast at this time.

Previous discussion...
The main forecast message for the near term period is very warm
and unsettled weather. The Ohio Valley region in under a quasi-
zonal mid and upper level at this time. This near- zonal flow
will continue through Tuesday. There is a weak stationary front
near the Ohio River this morning. There is also a weak mid level
disturbance in the 500 mb flow near the Mid- Mississippi Valley
this morning that will slowly track eastward over the next 24
to 36 hours. This mid level disturbance will help lift the
stationary front northward as a warm front later today into
Tuesday.

The weather will start out with fair conditions along with
partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies and dry. The warm front
will slowly start to lift northward this afternoon into Central
Ohio. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop this
afternoon with the highest POPs closer to the Highway 30
corridor and southward. High temperatures today will range front
the middle 70s to the lower 80s. We will hold on to chance to
likely POPs into the overnight for most of northern Ohio and
northwest Pennsylvania. The lower POPs will be confined to
northwest Ohio.

The warm front will move through late tonight and be north of
Lake Erie by morning. PW values will increase to nearly 1.9" in
the atmosphere by midday Tuesday. It will be a very humid
airmass with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
The mid level disturbance in the 500 mb flow will be right
overhead during the day Tuesday. This disturbance will aid in
the development of widespread scattered showers and
thunderstorms during the late morning and through the afternoon
hours on Tuesday. The highest POPs will be over north central
and northeast Ohio as well as NWPA. Lower POPs will again favor
northwest Ohio on Tuesday. While organized strong convection is
not anticipated, slow moving storms and localized heavy rainfall
may be an impact. High temperatures will range in the middle 70s
to near 80 over NEOH and NWPA where the greater POPs will be.
Northwest Ohio will see less rain chances but warmer
temperatures in the mid 80s on Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A series of shortwaves aloft will move across the region Tuesday
night into Wednesday. Maintained slight chance to chance PoPs for
any showers associated with the shortwaves Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning. A deepening upper level trough and surface cold
front will approach from the west during the day on Wednesday.
Moderate instability and deep-layer shear, models generally showing
750-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE and 20-30 knots of 0-6 km bulk shear, are
forecasted to develop ahead of the cold front Wednesday afternoon
and evening. Thunderstorms are expected to form ahead of the cold
front with the potential for some to reach severe limits given the
aforementioned environmental parameters. Showers and thunderstorms
continue through Thursday as the cold front pushes east across the
region. Warm overnight lows are forecasted to settle in the upper
60s Tuesday and Wednesday night. Highs on Wednesday will rise into
the 80s. Slightly cooler behind the cold front with highs on
Thursday in the upper 70s and lows in the lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure will build across the Ohio Valley Friday and persist
through the long term period. As large scale ridging builds over the
region through the weekend above normal temperatures are forecasted
areawide. The CPC 6-10 day temperature outlook highlights our
forecast area with high probabilities of above normal temperatures.
Have some slight chance to chance PoPs this weekend as a shortwave
aloft moves across the region.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
The overall expectations will be VFR conditions for this TAF
update outside of any scattered showers or storms later today
and tonight. There are some MVFR to low end MVFR ceilings at CAK
and YNG this morning. We expected these MVFR ceilings to lift to
VFR ceilings later this morning after 15z. There are PROB30
groups later this afternoon from 18z to 24z for possible
scattered showers and thunderstorms as well as MVFR
ceilings/visibilities. We did not put PROB30 at TOL due to
lower chance for scattered convection in NWOH. Scattered rain
showers may continue into the overnight for CAK, YNG, and ERI.
Winds will remain easterly or northeasterly around 4 to 7 knots
through the TAF period.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely with periodic showers and
thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday, best chance Tuesday
afternoon and Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
An area of high pressure over the Great Lakes region will keep
easterly winds 5-10 knots in place through tonight. An area of low
pressure moves north across the Ohio Valley into the Great Lakes
region allowing for winds to shift southerly by early Tuesday
morning. Generally offshore flow 5-10 knots remains in place through
early Wednesday morning before a system approaches the lake from the
west. Southwesterly winds 10-15 knots during the day on Wednesday
will increase to 15-20 knots Wednesday night into Thursday as a cold
front moves west to east across the lake. Behind the cold front
winds turn northwesterly and diminish to 10-15 knots. Will continue
to monitor the need for small craft advisories and beach hazards
statements with the mid-week system. Multiple rounds of showers and
thunderstorms are possible tonight through Thursday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...77
NEAR TERM...77
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...77
MARINE...13