634
FXUS61 KCLE 230123
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
923 PM EDT Sun Jun 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level ridge continues hot and humid continues through
mid-week. A cold front approaches on Wednesday and remains over
the region through the week and into the weekend, bringing the
potential for unsettled conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
No changes to the forecast at this time.

Previous Discussion...
Looking at the broader picture, we still have a strong upper-level
ridge centered over the mid-Atlantic and encompassing much of the
CONUS east of the Mississippi. While we got a taste of the heat
yesterday, today begins the real heat and humidity as southwest
advection of warm, moist air raises temperatures to the low to mid
90s and dew points in the low to mid 70s, contributing to widespread
heat indices exceeding 100 this afternoon. Despite hot temperatures,
we`re unlikely to break any record high temperatures.

On Monday, the synoptic conditions remain relatively the same as the
airmass remains relatively unchanged, though perhaps the boundary
layer is able to mix out a bit better than today...so instead of dew
points in the low to mid 70s, they will probably be more like upper
60s to low 70s. Either way, still should heat indices exceed 100
areawide again on Monday. Monday is probably the best chance for
climate sites to break daily record high temperatures. See the
climate section below for details.

The Heat Advisory that is in effect now through Tuesday remains
unchanged.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
By Tuesday, the same airmass remains overhead, though continuous
build up of moisture into the region should allow for a better
chance for scattered afternoon cumulus clouds, which may moderate
the temperatures just a bit compared to Sunday and Monday. Max heat
indices will be in the mid 90s to just over 100. The Heat Advisory
remains unchanged and will be in effect through 8 PM Tuesday.

An approaching weak cold front from the north, along with that
increase in moisture will all lead to better chance for uncapped
instability, resulting in mainly diurnally-driven scattered
afternoon showers and thunderstorms in mainly Northwest Ohio Tuesday
afternoon and then everywhere Wednesday afternoon. Moderate to high
instability will support strong updrafts, though weak mid-level flow
(maybe 20 knots at 700mb along our northern periphery) may limit a
organized severe weather threat. Even so, moderate to high
instability, along with high PWATs will support at least gusty winds
and small hail with any storms that do develop. High PWATs will also
support an efficient, heavy rain for our stronger storms, and storm
motions will also be on the lower end (around 15 knots or so), there
could be isolated flash flooding, especially if thunderstorms park
themselves over an area more vulnerable to flooding.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Thursday through the weekend will feature daily scattered
showers and thunderstorms. Heat and humidity will tend to
improve a bit but it will still be summer weather. Heavy rain
and gusty winds will like likely accompany any stronger storms.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
An upper ridge and surface high pressure over the region will
allow for VFR conditions and mostly cloud-free skies to reign
through the TAF period. Winds will be southwest around 7 to 10
kts and perhaps a bit more calm overnight. There could be a weak
lake breeze that gets into KERI on Monday afternoon, but the
pressure gradient should be strong enough to keep the lake
breeze away from KCLE.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible Tuesday onward with scattered
showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Mainly quiet marine conditions are expected on Lake Erie through
the end of the week. A huge mid/upper ridge of high pressure
centered over the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes through
Monday night will gradually shift toward the Southeast CONUS
Tuesday through Friday as the top of the ridge flattens. This
will allow a cold front to gradually sink towards Lake Erie
Tuesday, with the front likely becoming quasi-stationary near
the lake Wednesday through Friday as ripples of low pressure
ride along it and waver the boundary slightly north and south.

SW winds will average 5-15 knots tonight through Tuesday before
becoming more variable at 5-15 knots Tuesday night through
Friday as the boundary wavers in the vicinity of the lake.
Periodic thunderstorms will move over the lake Tuesday through
Friday given the front in the area and the weak waves of low
pressure traversing it and interacting with the heat and
humidity, but timing and coverage is low at this point.

&&

.CLIMATE...
High temperatures may approach record values on today through
Tuesday. Here are daily record high temperature values at our
six climate sites:

Date    Toledo         Mansfield      Cleveland      Akron          Youngstown     Erie

06-23   96(1911)       91(1964)       94(1948)       94(1923)       94(1943)       92(1964)
06-24   95(2005)       93(1933)       96(1952)       95(1923)       93(1952)       92(1952)

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for OHZ003-006>014-
     017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
PA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for PAZ001>003.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Saunders
NEAR TERM...Saunders/Sefcovic
SHORT TERM...Saunders
LONG TERM...Saunders
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...Garuckas
CLIMATE...