720
FXUS61 KCLE 031011
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
611 AM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026

...12z TAF Aviation Forecast Update...

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes from the previous forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry weather is favored across the area through much of next
week. Temperatures will be slightly below normal Monday and
Tuesday and patchy frost is possible Monday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
High pressure will be over the area today with most sunny skies
and dry weather expected. The high will drift northeast tonight,
allowing a cold front to move east across the area on
Sunday. Guidance generally favors a dry frontal passage given
insufficient mid-level moisture, although isolated showers
can`t be completely ruled out across portions of NW PA
immediately along the cold front Sunday evening.

From there, Canadian high pressure will build over the region
and maintain influence as it drifts east across the northeastern
CONUS through at least the middle of next week. This will foster
dry weather and cooler temperatures Monday and Tuesday. High
temps will be in the low to mid 60s Monday and Tuesday, although
temperatures will begin to recover on Wednesday as warm air
advection develops on the back side of the high. Overnight lows
will be in the 40s across most of the area starting tonight with
the coolest temperatures expected with the most efficient
radiational cooling Monday and Tuesday nights. Temps will be
especially chilly Monday night, when widespread lower 40s and
upper 30s are expected. This will introduce potential for patchy
to areas of frost development late Monday into early Tuesday,
best chance across typical cold spots in interior NE OH and NW
PA. Isolated instances of frost are possible Tuesday night,
although temperatures will be slightly warmer so any frost would
be limited to sheltered areas in valleys.

Isolated rain chances may return late next week as the next cold
front moves across the area, but dry weather is likely due to
ample low to mid-level dry air.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
VFR through the period. Winds northeasterly 5 to 10 knots
through tonight.

Outlook...Overall VFR conditions expected into early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds have diminished below 20 knots and waves have subsided
below 4 feet so will let the Small Craft Advisory expire at 4
AM. Winds will be out of the northeast at 10 to 15 knots today,
which could produce marginally choppy conditions in the
nearshore zones of the central basin. Winds will shift to the
southeast and diminish below 10 knots tonight before becoming
more westerly Sunday. The next chance of Small Craft Advisory
conditions will arrive as northwest winds increase behind a cold
front Sunday night into Monday. Expect winds to diminish Monday
night with light and variable flow anticipated over Lake Erie
on Tuesday. By Wednesday morning, winds should become offshore
and increase.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...77
MARINE...15